tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61958842011-04-21T22:54:18.868-05:00Lookout LandingI used to be optimistic.Mad Mikenoreply@blogger.comBlogger13891100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099967204065346092004-11-08T20:53:00.000-05:002004-11-08T21:26:44.066-05:00A note regarding the recent lack of activity:
Trent and I are each feeling a little under the weather
Site maintenance issues continue to take up a lot of time and effort
It's early November
Our most pressing issue is one which, once resolved, should leave everyone feeling pretty pleased. In the meantime, if you're starved for warm and fuzzy news, Ryan Anderson claims to be nearing a comeback. Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099811111277500022004-11-06T23:02:00.000-05:002004-11-07T02:13:59.310-05:00With Jeff being out of town, I had hoped to take a much needed day off from school and work to have a lazy day and work on some new material for the site. But of course, it’s never that easy. I spent the majority of the day in bed, sick as a dog. I had hoped to have completed a write-up on what direction I believe the M’s should take this off-season, but it will have to wait another until anotherTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099727052744197712004-11-05T23:34:00.000-05:002004-11-06T02:44:12.743-05:00The circus sideshow that is also commonly referred to as the DBacks managerial search is finally over. Again. Wally Backman was fired this morning, lasting just four days with the club, (Billy Martin who?) and Bob Melvin was immediately named his successor. Apparently with Melvin's hiring, the M's are only responsible for the difference in salary between what the M's were supposed to pay him nextTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099671914167500402004-11-05T10:52:00.000-05:002004-11-05T11:25:14.166-05:00Steve Nelson at The Wheelhouse posted a link to a St. Paul Pioneer Press piece which mentions Seattle as one of the teams showing "strong interest" in Brad Radke. It also states that Radke is looking for a two-year deal worth something in the neighborhood of $17m.
(The same article also mentions that Jacque Jones could be making as much as $6m in 2005, which - along with the Radke situation and Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099629485692268832004-11-04T23:06:00.000-05:002004-11-04T23:38:05.693-05:00I was stumbling through some of the Baseball Prospectus stat pages when I came across something that piqued my interest:
Last year, the Mariners scored 45 fewer runs than their estimated total.
I ran through a little research that, as it turns out, didn't support my initial hypothesis. In the end, the reason for the offensive underachievement was pretty simple: the Mariners didn't deliver as Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099627297539538752004-11-04T22:59:00.000-05:002004-11-04T23:01:37.540-05:00Another reason why the M's should focus their their attention towards Adrian Beltre and avoid what promises to be a circus.
Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099616615404361102004-11-04T19:55:00.001-05:002004-11-04T20:03:35.403-05:00Ichiro won another award today; this time, it was the AL Outstanding Player of the Year, as voted on by his peers.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099616470150449192004-11-04T19:55:00.000-05:002004-11-04T20:01:10.150-05:00Thanks to Dave at USS Mariner for pointing out Jim Callis' free agent ranking in today's Ask BA (scroll to the bottom).
The players are sorted into three groups: Types A, B, and C. As you may or may not know, the compensation for signing a Type A free agent is your first-round pick, plus a supplemental first-rounder. For a Type B, it is the first-round pick only. For Type C, the compensation is Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099538695822674062004-11-03T22:14:00.000-05:002004-11-03T22:24:55.823-05:00The Mariners made a few additions to the front office today; Dan Evans and John Boles were hired as scouts.
You may remember John Boles as Florida's manager from 1999 into 2001. He has since been working as an adviser with Los Angeles. Evans, of course, spent two years as the Dodgers' GM and another as a front office executive after working with the White Sox for nearly two decades. He spent Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099487652781350382004-11-03T08:12:00.000-05:002004-11-03T08:14:12.780-05:00As a heads-up, the site will be undergoing some necessary maintenace work today (and possibly over the next few days), so it may be unavailable or rendered differently from time to time. Bear with us; this is a process intended to improve the quality of the website.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099453403516418272004-11-02T22:12:00.000-05:002004-11-02T22:45:42.486-05:00The fact that Eddie exercised his option so quickly scares me, as it might be an indicator that he knows/believes that his shoulder isn't fully healthy. Last season, Eddie was the most effective reliever on the club April-June, (despite his propensity to blow saves) and struggled in July, which is probably a direct result of his shoulder injury.
I have serious doubts about how effective GuardadoTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099451798533905462004-11-02T22:07:00.000-05:002004-11-02T22:16:38.533-05:00Guardado picked up his 2005 option today, guaranteeing that he will collect $4.5m next season whether he pitches effectively or not.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099436623312799152004-11-02T18:02:00.000-05:002004-11-02T18:03:43.313-05:00For whatever reason, I neglected to mention that Boone and Ichiro won Gold Gloves as well.
As if you needed more evidence that reputation is everything with these kinds of awards.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099435649173372812004-11-02T17:39:00.000-05:002004-11-02T17:47:29.173-05:00In other news, Derek Jeter won his first Gold Glove this afternoon.
In reality, he was considerably better in 2004 than in previous seasons, but he was far from the best in the AL. It's been hypothesized that his defensive numbers look better because the nimble-footed Alex Rodriguez covered a lot of Jeter's territory from third base.
I would've put Jeter fifth, behind Miguel Tejada, Cristian Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099435048757992032004-11-02T17:33:00.000-05:002004-11-02T17:37:28.756-05:00Jamie Moyer won the 2004 Branch Rickey Award today for his "unselfish work in the community."
He will be inducted into the Baseball Humanitarians Hall of Fame on Friday. Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099371791892694812004-11-01T21:27:00.000-05:002004-11-02T00:03:11.893-05:00The finale of a three-part series looking forward to the offseason
Winter 2004: A Reasonable Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099362367008985152004-11-01T20:11:00.000-05:002004-11-01T21:26:07.006-05:00The Mariners declined Eddie Guardado's 2005 option, potentially adding another $6m to the offseason budget.
As part of the mutual option, Guardado has seven days to decide whether or not he'll return to Seattle for $4.5m in 2005. If he declines, then he will become a free agent, with a fairly good chance of getting more money on the open market.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099338324020487472004-11-01T11:27:00.000-05:002004-11-01T19:34:49.283-05:00Some various baseball news to report this morning. Gerry Hunsicker has stepped down as the Houtson Astros GM and assistant GM Tim Purpura has taken over, effective this morning.
Wally Backman was also named manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks this morning, beating out Bob Melvin and Manny Acta for the position.
Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099200398245775962004-10-30T21:37:00.000-05:002004-11-01T17:04:47.686-05:00To continue a trend on this blog over the last month, it’s time once again to breakdown Bob Finnigan’s recent heaping pile of trash, “M’s Caught in Number Crunch”.
While it seems many were pleased at the comeuppance of the Yankees, the postseason failure of the New York club and the humiliation that does not sit well with owner George Steinbrenner could be costly for other clubs during free Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099120874180155192004-10-30T00:53:00.000-05:002004-10-30T02:25:01.833-05:00If you could pick one player, regardless of price, that you want the M’s to sign this off-season, who would it be?
Who is the best free agent on the market this off-season?
The majority of you will have answered those questions with one name, Carlos Beltran. I did. Carlos Beltran is the cream of a relatively unspectacular free agent crop this off-season. Sure there are some big names availableTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1099104055214528642004-10-29T21:35:00.000-05:002004-10-29T22:56:57.290-05:00Question from one of our readers that I felt would be a good write up.
Do you guys like Price or not? Who do you want if you don't like him?
I think the best way to describe the retention of Bryan Price is ambivalence. I think Price is a good baseball man, but I question all the praise he has gotten as the Mariner pitching coach. It’s hard not to acknowledge the remarkable turnaround of the Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098940164963931592004-10-28T00:07:00.000-05:002004-10-28T00:12:12.496-05:00Congratulations to the 2004 World Series Champions Boston Red Sox. Boston joined a short list of teams to sweep their opponents in the World Series as they outplayed the St. Louis Cardinals in every facet of the past four games. Manny Ramirez was named MVP of the WS, which in my opinion, should have gone to either Pedro or Schilling. The one thing that excites me the most about the Boston win, isTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098922965736899732004-10-27T19:20:00.000-05:002004-10-27T19:22:45.736-05:00I've got bad news (or good news, if you don't like me): something came up, and I won't be able to finish the three-part series until the beginning of next week as I'm going out of town. In the meantime, you can either mope about it, read the other blogs, or bug Trent to say something about something.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098877751757769422004-10-27T06:48:00.000-05:002004-10-27T06:49:11.756-05:00Bryan Price is sticking around. Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098845290529135522004-10-26T21:44:00.000-05:002004-10-26T21:48:10.530-05:00You know, whoever signs Pedro this winter would do well to exercise their creativity and turn him into a Sunday starter - he is just a completely different pitcher on extended rest.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098841520996006722004-10-26T18:32:00.000-05:002004-10-26T20:45:20.996-05:00Part two of a three-part series looking forward to the offseason
Winter 2004: A Pessimist's Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098758637400884062004-10-25T19:51:00.000-05:002004-10-26T06:51:37.890-05:00The first in a three-part series looking forward to the offseason
Winter 2004: An Optimist's Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098722723242683892004-10-25T12:38:00.000-05:002004-10-25T11:46:41.753-05:00I will begin a three-part series on the offseason this afternoon, time permitting. In the meantime, I invite you to savor possibly the only intelligent statement offered by the FOX broadcast, coming in the middle innings of last night's game:
"Morris hasn't been able to put away the Red Sox hitters when they're down two strikes, and they've made him pay."
The Cardinals' entire staff is Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098653259959739532004-10-24T16:27:00.000-05:002004-10-24T16:27:39.960-05:00I give this site my full support:
ShutUpTimMcCarverJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098591912914828972004-10-24T00:24:00.000-05:002004-10-23T23:25:12.913-05:00Pitching and defense win championships.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098562544258195802004-10-23T15:11:00.000-05:002004-10-23T15:15:44.260-05:00Something I ran across while browsing the Inside Edge Advance Scouting website (the company who put together the scouting reports I linked below):
Two testimonials.
"Those guys are the best. Teams that use them love them.”
-Bill Bavasi
“Inside Edge scouting reports give me accurate, up-to-date information on opposing batters. That’s the edge every Major League pitcher wants to take into a Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098552231886035812004-10-23T12:22:00.000-05:002004-10-23T12:23:51.886-05:00This might be the most in-depth scouting report I've seen in my life.
I don't know what else to say. (Thanks to Will Carroll for the link.)Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098484588856397072004-10-22T17:34:00.000-05:002004-10-22T17:38:46.553-05:00In light of the most recent post, I'd like to take you back several months to something that caught my attention in March:
MLB.com: Would you vote to put Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame?
Lincoln: Well, I don't have a vote. Let's just say that I don't like people that lie, and leave it at that.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098465015994435402004-10-22T12:05:00.000-05:002004-10-22T13:34:02.400-05:00Fuzzy Math, Revisited:
That dreadful term, "budget constraints", has already been tossed around by a few sources with regards to the Mariners' '04/'05 offseason plan. Howard Lincoln has said that the team's going to take a financial hit next year, and that he's willing to accept that in order to build a competitive team, but he's just flapping his lips - the team is in no danger of losing money Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098419299627004202004-10-22T00:27:00.000-05:002004-10-22T00:59:38.210-05:00There is nothing like October baseball. Sure, April through September is fun, but the excitement that comes out of October baseball is unbelievable. Both championship series were a lot of fun to watch and the World Series should be entertaining as well, but I doubt it will reach the magnitude of last nights Red Sox win over the Yankees. If you are a superstitious person, has the curse been brokenTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098397887003371202004-10-21T16:49:00.000-05:002004-10-21T17:31:27.003-05:00You may remember this post on Jeremy Reed that I put up a little over a month ago. In the introduction I cited a Nate Silver article that evaluated 2004 Minor League performances based on PECOTA expecations. Players were split up into six groups:
Dramatically Exceeded Expectations (90th percentile or better)
Markedly Exceeded Expectations (75th percentile through 90th percentile)
Exceeded Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098333602276622072004-10-21T00:27:00.000-05:002004-10-20T23:40:02.276-05:00And so we bid farewell to perhaps the greatest playoff series of our lifetimes.
Congratulations to the Red Sox for an improbable comeback, and I can't say I feel bad for the Yankees after they managed to pull off arguably the biggest choke in the history of professional sports. David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Curt Schilling, and Derek Lowe have become instant heroes in a city longing for someone to Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098289287329948102004-10-20T12:13:00.000-05:002004-10-20T11:21:27.330-05:00It's official, the Mariners have named Mike Hargrove as the new manager of the Seattle Mariners and gave him a three year contract.
Hopefully, this is a sign of change in the Mariners FO philosophy. Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098281757547681382004-10-20T09:12:00.000-05:002004-10-20T09:15:57.553-05:00It's Hargrove.
The team hasn't made an official announcement, requiring permission from Bud Selig to do so, but the decision has been made.
The offseason is off to a pretty good start.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098245789583992472004-10-20T00:16:00.000-05:002004-10-19T23:16:29.583-05:00Absolutely unbelievable.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098239436392060852004-10-19T21:28:00.000-05:002004-10-19T21:30:36.393-05:00At 0-for-3 so far tonight, Derek Jeter is hitting a robust .227/.333/.341 in the playoffs, and is at .160 in the ALCS. The guy's clutch.
Oh, and Curt Schilling = Kerri Strug.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098208303592739692004-10-19T12:25:00.000-05:002004-10-19T19:24:14.666-05:00This morning, I checked out a clip of Jon Stewart's appearance on Crossfire. Now, I'd like to acknowledge up front that I rarely, if ever involve myself in political discussion.
This will be no exception.
The managerial race has evidently come down to Grady Little vs. Mike Hargrove, so what better way to evaluate the candidates than by putting together a pros & cons list for each party?
Grady Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098186534138894382004-10-19T06:48:00.000-05:002004-10-19T06:48:54.136-05:00It would appear that my Joe Maddon speculation was wrong (and that he was never a serious candidate to begin with).
Mike Hargrove and Grady Little look like the two finalists for the job. More on this later.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098169252456295912004-10-19T00:34:00.000-05:002004-10-19T21:16:01.563-05:00There has been next to no new Mariner news over the past week, but thankfully, this might have been one of the best sports weekends in a long while.
David Ortiz is a monster. Period. Cut and dry. (Insert cliche here). After blasting a two run homer run earlier this morning to give the Red Sox a win, he knocks in the winning run again tonight, sending the series back to NY. Tomorrow night Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1098157301158262462004-10-18T22:39:00.000-05:002004-10-18T22:41:41.190-05:00Trent and I agree: give Carlos Beltran whatever he wants (and that David Ortiz fellow isn't too bad, himself).
I'm wiped out from an active weekend and celebrating my birthday today with a pair of tremendous baseball games - three, if you count the ALCS game that didn't end until 1:30 in the morning.
Schilling and Lieber are going to throw about 300 pitches tomorrow, between the two of 'em.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097911303413053962004-10-16T02:18:00.000-05:002004-10-16T02:23:54.873-05:00There has been a lot of talk about who the next manager is going to be, about how {insert name here} is or isn’t a good manager or strategist, and so on and so forth. Honestly, as long his last name isn’t Bowa, Williams or Baylor, I could careless who the new manager is. If you look at the teams in the playoffs this season, Phil Garner and Terry Francona led their respective teams into the Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097861869581538832004-10-15T12:12:00.000-05:002004-10-15T12:39:14.903-05:00Given recent managerial speculation (on which an update may be found here, courtesy of John Hickey), I decided to do a little historical reading. I came across a section that seemed particularly relevant to the current situation - Baseball Prospectus 2003's Seattle Mariners team essay. The organization was in an almost identical position prior to hiring Bob Melvin as they are now, so check out Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097721399952653722004-10-13T21:29:00.000-05:002004-10-13T21:36:39.953-05:00Mariners made a few minor moves today, optioning Jeff Heaverlo, Hiram Bocachica, BJ Garbe and Mickey Lopez to AAA Tacoma. Only Hiram Bocachica opted for free agency. Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097706365676585512004-10-13T17:15:00.000-05:002004-10-13T17:28:26.356-05:00Tonight's TV schedule for sports channels:
FOX: MLB Baseball, Red Sox @ Yankees
FOX Sports: NBA Preseason Basketball, Celtics @ Pistons
FX: Behind Enemy Lines, Owen Wilson @ Bosnia
ESPN: College Football, West Virginia @ Connecticut
ESPN2: Soccer, Panama @ US, followed by reruns of the World Series of Poker
NESN: Back-to-back rerun episodes of Adventure Hawaii
YES: This Week In Football (which, Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097689691493220982004-10-13T12:44:00.000-05:002004-10-13T12:48:11.493-05:00I should add that I do agree with Jim Street on one thing in the Mariners Mailbag:
Bob Melvin did the same job last season as he did in 2003, but the players did not produce the same way, and therefore 2004 was a poor season...Unless a manager has good players, he won't win, and that is plain and simple. Joe Torre didn't have the talent to win until becoming the Yankees manager. Dick Williams Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097689349361702302004-10-13T12:01:00.000-05:002004-10-14T12:28:14.813-05:00Contradiction in the Mariners Mailbag:
In response to a question about Jolbert Cabrera and Willie Bloomquist:
Neither is a home run threat, but if they were, they would be playing every day in one position and not being moved around so much.
And Street's answer to the following question about Justin Leone:
He showed that he can hit the ball a long way, hitting several second-deck home runs at Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097601762024396262004-10-12T12:21:00.000-05:002004-10-12T12:22:42.023-05:00I direct your attention to the Hardball Times, where you may find perhaps the greatest piece of journalism in the history of language.
Yankeez Rool, Boston Is Teh SuckJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097561462248850992004-10-12T01:10:00.000-05:002004-10-12T01:11:02.246-05:00David Cameron profiles my favorite FA pitcher. Give that a look while I try to find the time to write something of my own.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097528108521153132004-10-11T15:54:00.000-05:002004-10-11T15:55:08.520-05:00This is only a hypothesis, but I wonder if Bob Melvin was spotted trying to steal Bavasi's Chicken Selects.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097468206918895982004-10-11T00:04:00.000-05:002004-10-11T14:03:02.226-05:002004 Major League Baseball Awards (as determined by VORP):
Updated...
AL MVP:
1: Vladimir Guerrero
2: Johan Santana
3: Melvin Mora
4: Ichiro Suzuki
5: Miguel Tejada
NL MVP:
1: Barry Bonds
2: Albert Pujols
3: Todd Helton
4: Adrian Beltre
5: Jim Edmonds
AL Cy Young:
1: Johan Santana
2: Curt Schilling
3: Brad Radke
4: Jake Westbrook
5: Kelvim Escobar
NL Cy Young:
1: Randy Johnson
2: Ben Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097456256455330052004-10-10T16:59:00.000-05:002004-10-10T20:01:55.326-05:00I've been working on a pitcher abuse project off and on for about a week, now, plugging in some numbers and charting the data when I've had some free time. The original intent was to measure the extent to which our rotation was being misused, and with Melvin getting the ol' heave-ho, the timing couldn't be better.
Two things to know before I post the chart:
wAge is short for Weighted Age - theJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097431474006729692004-10-10T12:43:00.000-05:002004-10-10T13:04:34.006-05:00It's beginning to feel a lot like last winter.
Baylor, who guided the Rockies into the postseason in 1995, their third year of existence, is emerging as a hot managerial candidate this winter.
The list of managers who I don't want in Seattle under any circumstances is a short one, but Baylor is near the top. Joe Maddon? Fine. Larry Dierker? Fine. Art Howe? Fine. Don Baylor? Not fine. Trent's Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097208757420937302004-10-07T22:03:00.000-05:002004-10-08T23:53:36.646-05:00Thanks to Bob Finnigan there is some confusion and in some instances panic throughout the blogosphere and in Mariner fans everywhere regarding this off-season. Dave should help to calm some of the skeptics with a terrific post on USSM and over the next few weeks we all should know the direction the M's will be taking in 2005 and beyond. I have yet to jump onboard the "Playoffs in 2005" bandwagon Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097203208687611802004-10-07T21:25:00.000-05:002004-10-07T21:57:45.073-05:00If you're having trouble getting excited about this year's brand of October baseball and all you want to hear about is how the Mariners intend to go about rebuilding the team this winter, go read David Cameron's piece.
The M’s are going to spend a lot of money this winter. I can’t guarantee they are going to spend it all well, but I can tell you that several of the players we would like to see Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097187026272551212004-10-07T16:47:00.000-05:002004-10-07T20:02:41.066-05:00Brief synopsis of Howard Lincoln’s responses to questions asked by Groz this afternoon on KJ:
“We are not going to get silly (this offseason).”
The fans don't want silly, we want smart.
“We don’t have any set rules on contract lengths. We were willing to give Rhodes and Suzuki four year contracts. One thing Pat Gillick and Bill Bavasi are aware of are that long-term contracts are risky.”
No Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097180331044227992004-10-07T13:55:00.000-05:002004-10-07T15:24:30.210-05:00Breaking Down Bob Finnigan's "M's try to head off winter of discontent".
About all that is widely known is that the Mariners will have money to work with — while less than previous speculation, it should be about $20 million to $22 million...
How many times have we heard that one? The Mariners currently have ~$64m tied up in 2005 payroll once you factor in incentives for Boone and Moyer, and theJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097082559772165442004-10-06T11:02:00.000-05:002004-10-06T12:24:47.993-05:00Art Thiel interviewed Howard Lincoln yesterday and once again delivered an excellent article. I encourage everyone to read the transcript of the interview and draw your own conclusions. For the first time since Lincoln has been here, I get the distinct impression that he is finally getting it, but continues to talk out of both sides of his mouth. Only time will tell if he is actually committed toTrentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097081361251690722004-10-06T10:15:00.000-05:002004-10-06T11:55:57.803-05:00From the Seattle Times:
If speculation proves correct, his second chance might come quickly. Arizona newspapers are reporting that Melvin, who came to Seattle after being the Diamondbacks' bench coach, is high on that club's list of managerial candidates.
Word is Arizona president Jerry Colangelo called Melvin yesterday, but whether he gets the job or another one, he is expected to make Bryan Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097072943097474432004-10-06T09:28:00.000-05:002004-10-06T09:29:03.096-05:00Reflecting on 2004:
Oops.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097066458916964162004-10-06T07:36:00.000-05:002004-10-06T07:40:58.916-05:00Roger Jongewaard is gone.
His recent drafts have been undeniably terrible, but Jongewaard deserves praise for playing an instrumental role in extending the club's focus towards Asia and Australia, from which he was able to snag Shin-soo Choo, Travis Blackley, Chris Snelling, Cha Baek, and a handful of others.
Also, Bob Melvin speaks out:
"I appreciate Bill respecting my privacy," Melvin said Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097046020974421742004-10-05T22:55:00.000-05:002004-10-06T02:00:20.973-05:00From the beginning of his tenure, Bill Bavasi found numerous ways to rub me the wrong way. From the seemingly clueless way he went about business this past winter, to the absurd comments he used to help justify the ridiculous free agent pick-ups and trades, nothing he did made me confident that he was capable of taking the reigns and steering the M’s in the right direction. In short, I blamed Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097035017392844112004-10-05T22:53:00.000-05:002004-10-05T22:56:57.393-05:00Bavasi, on how he'll find a successor to Melvin:
``We'll probably target somebody, go after them, and go from there,'' he said.
This runs counter to the time-tested practice of calling randomly selected numbers from the phone book whilst ignoring the list of potential candidates put together by your assistant.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1097020435504147872004-10-05T18:16:00.000-05:002004-10-05T18:53:55.503-05:00So I spent the afternoon watching playoff baseball, as any college student with a difficult course load would do. Having picked up on a few things early in the game, I decided to pay careful attention to the commentary during the remainder of the Dodgers/Cardinals tilt to see if the announcers were discussing anything of substance. What I heard a lot of was:
"_ plays the game the right way."
"_Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096999315152472802004-10-05T12:53:00.000-05:002004-10-05T14:23:24.423-05:00Quote of the Day:
"I think you'd rather pitch to the pitcher here."
-Joe Morgan, discussing strategic approaches to facing #8 hitter Mike Matheny with two out, a man on second, and Woody Williams on deck.
Update: ...and Matheny homers in the fourth. Of course.
Update#2: the hits just keep on coming. From Morgan:
"I don't look at stats. I look at approaches, how hitters approach left-handed Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096929109584340932004-10-04T17:04:00.000-05:002004-10-04T17:31:49.583-05:00If you want information on managerial candidates, go see what DMZ has to say (to be updated as more names come to mind). I won't even try to compete with his list.
Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096926367914959952004-10-04T16:16:00.000-05:002004-10-04T16:46:07.916-05:00Assessing the Impact of Rick Peterson on a Pitching Staff, Part II:
Back on July 20th, Prospectus Triple Play took a look at how Oakland and New York Met starters were performing relative to their 2003 campaigns, before Rick Peterson changed alliegances. Using K/BB to reflect Peterson's influence, it was hypothesized at the time that he had helped turn Tom Glavine around, while Hudson and MulderJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096909101122697402004-10-04T12:56:00.000-05:002004-10-04T11:58:21.123-05:00So long, Bob.
Melvin's out. All that needs to be said has already been said.
Best of luck to Melvin in his future endeavours - he's a nice enough guy, and his experience with both contending and rebuilding teams will help build his resume as he searches for employment elsewhere.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096909374523336912004-10-04T12:31:00.000-05:002004-10-04T13:12:03.750-05:00Bob Melvin was fired this morning as the manager of the Seattle Mariners and a press conference has been called at 11:30 this morning to announce the move. This isn't a huge surprise and the club should begin their search for a new skipper immediately. In my opinion, Bob Melvin did as good a job as he could have the past two seasons and in the end, it wasn't enough. I don't view this as the M's Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096849344907586272004-10-03T19:07:00.000-05:002004-10-03T19:22:24.906-05:00 EDGAR MARTINEZ, #11
Debut: 9/12/87
First at bat: 9/14/87
First hit: 9/14/87 (Triple)
Last hit: 10/1/04 (Single)
Last game: 10/3/04
Last at bat: Double play
Games: 2049
At Bats: 7187
Hits: 2242
Doubles: 514
Home Runs: 309
Walks: 1282
Runs: 1216
RBI: 1259
Batting Average: .312
On Base Percentage: .419
Slugging Percentage: .517
Equivalent Average: .316
Runs Created: 1525
Stolen Bases: 49
Stolen Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096784164626239812004-10-03T01:07:00.000-05:002004-10-03T01:16:04.626-05:00
There are so many things to be said.
Unfortunately, I don't think anyone has the words to say them.
Derek Zumsteg came the closest, so I'll leave you with his outstanding piece from last September. If you cried during tonight's ceremony (and I'm not sure how you couldn't), this'll bring those tears right back.
No posts until our season is over. This is Edgar's time.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096770679221063012004-10-02T21:29:00.000-05:002004-10-02T21:33:01.376-05:00Manny Alexander?
What the hell...?
Why is Kida even...this doesn't...I don't get...how...Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096750755667798982004-10-02T15:49:00.000-05:002004-10-02T15:59:15.666-05:00I chuckled when I read over this earlier today from Rotoworld:
The Mariners honored the new single-season hit record holder with 17 singles tonight. They had just one extra-base hit -- a Raul Ibanez double -- and one walk from Randy Winn. It's very fitting.
The military uses a 21-gun salute. The M's use a 17 single salute.
Either way, congrats Ichiro.
Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096701442825273912004-10-02T02:17:00.000-05:002004-10-02T02:17:22.826-05:00Oh, and I am not ashamed to admit that I gave no fewer than seven standing ovations from my dorm room.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096701229593894262004-10-02T01:07:00.000-05:002004-10-02T02:16:05.540-05:0063-97
With all due respect to Chris Bosio and Randy Johnson, this was the coolest achievement by any player in Mariners history.
A record that had stood for 84 years, not once seriously challenged after Bill Terry's 1930 campaign, is no more. A seemingly invulnerable record, demanding unthinkable consistency of any player who hoped to attain the lofty sum. The type of player best suited to Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096683584650953332004-10-01T21:16:00.000-05:002004-10-01T21:34:21.106-05:00Top of the first inning, one on, two out for Mark Teixeira, hitting from the right side
Neihaus: "Teixeira's done most of his damage from the left side of the plate..."
Jeff: "No he hasn't, he's hitting 24 points better as a righty-"
Neihaus: "...he's hit 28 of his home runs as a lefty, and just nine from this side."
Teixeira: *Two-run homer on next pitch*Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096657804503549502004-10-01T14:05:00.000-05:002004-10-01T14:10:04.503-05:00The Mariners' 2005 home schedule is out (.pdf file).
Of interest:
28 of the 57 games against AL West opponents will be at Safeco (10 vs. Oakland
Six-game homestand concludes the season
Opening day will be an afternoon home game against Minnesota
NL teams visiting Seattle: Phillies, Mets, Padres
Seven home dates against the Yankees
Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096651330283574162004-10-01T12:01:00.000-05:002004-10-01T12:22:10.283-05:00A few things from today's Baseball Prospectus - one free, and one not so free...
First, Will Carroll shares his thoughts on the Mariners pitching medicine mess:
A couple of years ago in the pages of Baseball Prospectus 2001, we praised Bryan Price as something near a savior to the young arms of Seattle. Mt. Piniella was in full effect in the days before the pitch-count police and Price's Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096595729864274102004-09-30T20:09:00.000-05:002004-09-30T20:55:29.863-05:0062-97
A day game, along with a light workload, allows me the freedom to do my first response post in quite some time. And off we go...
Well, the race for the worst record in the AL has been over for a little while, now - congratulations to Allard Baird - but there's still the possibility that the Mariners lose 100 games for just the fourth time in franchise history, and first time since 1983 (Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096587401854349202004-09-30T18:35:00.000-05:002004-09-30T18:36:41.853-05:00Example 1 of why strikeouts don't matter much for hitters.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096565290353204382004-09-30T12:28:00.000-05:002004-10-01T14:11:52.176-05:00In case you missed it, recently promoted Indians pitcher Kyle Denney was shot while riding the team bus. Someone fired at the bus as it was between freeways, and the bullet nicked Ryan Ludwick before settling into Denney's calf. Neither is seriously injured.
But wait, there's more:
As part of a rookie hazing ritual, Denney was wearing a Southern California cheerleader's uniform when he was shotJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096543350013105492004-09-30T06:22:00.000-05:002004-09-30T06:32:21.670-05:00138 pitches for Madritsch?
Is this a joke?
Update: some other sources say he threw 133, which is still ridiculous.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096498223235046422004-09-29T16:52:00.000-05:002004-09-29T17:50:23.236-05:00I admit, I'm fascinated by all this groundball/flyball stuff. It's the kind of thing that slips under the radar, because you don't really notice a player's tendencies. It's obvious if a guy has a lot of power or has trouble making contact with the ball, because he'll hit a bunch of home runs, or strike out all the time. Everyone can provide an example of each type of player. However, what if I Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096485434073828582004-09-29T14:14:00.000-05:002004-09-29T14:17:14.073-05:00When the BBC takes notice, you know you're seeing something extraordinary.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096472436384944002004-09-29T10:22:00.000-05:002004-09-29T10:40:36.386-05:00The Hardball Times gives a quick look at Ichiro's amazing season (scroll down). Specifically, how amazing it is that he's kept his batting average so high over nearly 700 at bats.
On a related topic, an off-the-cuff remark:
If we take a leap of faith and claim that there is a causative relationship between Ichiro's BA and GB/FB ratio, then in order for Ichiro to hit .400, he would need to hit Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096441606741296882004-09-29T02:02:00.000-05:002004-09-29T02:06:46.740-05:00In case you are ever taking in a game at Chavez Ravine, do not litter as Milton Bradley takes serious offense to anyone throwing any refuse onto the field. Serious offense.
Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096417490840871822004-09-28T18:30:00.000-05:002004-09-28T19:24:50.840-05:00A few days ago, Larry Stone addressed the "purists" who would place an asterisk by Ichiro's record, should he go on to smack #258. The reason? George Sisler's 257 mark was set in a 154-game season (but you knew that already). Thus, it isn't difficult to extrapolate that this is a problem of opportunity; Sisler's 257 hits came in 631 at bats, whereas Ichiro will reach 700 before the end of the Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096373279486216032004-09-28T07:07:00.000-05:002004-09-28T07:07:59.486-05:00Today's Fun Fact:
Willie Bloomquist has a higher IsoSLG than Ichiro!.
Might want to save a screenshot of this bad boy.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096222967245701262004-09-26T13:21:00.000-05:002004-09-26T13:22:47.246-05:00(Non-Mariners post)
Today's Quote Of The Day:
"They aren't unconventional, they just do things differently."
-FOX announcer describing the Eagles' defenseJeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096147823997028732004-09-25T16:23:00.000-05:002004-09-25T17:16:45.110-05:00Jeff talked a little bit about being a “stathead” yesterday and how closed minded individuals often find it easier to chastise and ridicule rather than try to comprehend a different point of view. I’m from a similar mold, the new school baseball mold if you want to label it. I value statistical analysis and scouting practices to evaluate talent, but statistical analysis provides a much more Trentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096058719928862022004-09-24T15:17:00.000-05:002004-09-24T22:32:55.886-05:00I'm a stathead. Ordinarily I don't try to make a point of it, because I like to think that I have a pretty good understanding of the ideal blend between analytical metrics and traditional scouting, but nevertheless, people always seem to notice. Sometimes they're quite open-minded, which leads to the occasional enjoyable, enlightened conversation, but more often than not the other party is too Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1096054691380938662004-09-24T14:28:00.000-05:002004-09-24T14:38:11.380-05:00Forget Ichiro; this year's MVP hardly qualifies as a starter.
That's right, folks, put your hands together for Chone Figgins!
John Kruk's selection has a lower VORP than such household names as Julio Lugo, Omar Infante, and Tony Womack, and is the proud owner of a distinctly below-average line for an AL third baseman (where he gets the most playing time). Kruk attempts to justify his pick by Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1095962179814922512004-09-23T12:52:00.000-05:002004-09-23T12:56:19.813-05:00Caught up in the midst of Ichiro! Fever, I came across a very interesting article from early 2002, a Tom Tippett piece analyzing the positive contributions of Ichiro!'s speed that announcers are always so quick to point out despite having minimal knowledge of the quantitative benefit. His eventual conclusion:
All things considered, offensive metrics like Runs Created probably do understate Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1095905653055378592004-09-22T21:11:00.000-05:002004-09-22T21:14:13.056-05:00Ichiro now has hits in eight consecutive at bats, but before you start thinking that he's about to set another record, think again; he's still four hits away from tying Walt Dropo and Mike "Pinky" Higgins.
You may remember that Bernie Williams strung together 11 consecutive hits a few years ago, until he was retired by Ryan Franklin.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1095873102750878312004-09-22T12:09:00.000-05:002004-09-22T12:11:42.750-05:00Will Carroll delivers some more bad news (when's the last time the Mariners had some *good* news regarding team health?).
Word from Seattle looks bleak for Edgar Martinez. His toe may not be broken, but my sources say he may not make it back in time to get the goodbye he deserves. Derek, raise a glass to Edgar for me.
That's pretty much the last thing any of us wants to hear right now.Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6195884.post-1095803958337327532004-09-21T15:18:00.000-05:002004-09-21T17:13:34.296-05:00We've reached that point in the season at which everyone's numbers provide a pretty good indication of how they performed this year - that is to say, final statistics aren't going to change very much from where they are now. As such, we may begin to assess the 2004 campaigns of, well, anyone we want, discussing who has met our expectations, who hasn't, and why this has been the case. It's too Jeff Sullivannoreply@blogger.com