Tuesday, January 20, 2004
By the way, for 2004, Ivan Rodriguez deserves $13.3m. Don't get your hopes up, though, because Pudge will have signed by the time we're freed of Sasaki's contract:
"The money attached to his contract is in place," Bavasi said. "He is still on our roster. That will remain so until such time as he is a free agent or he is released to sign with another club. At this point, (using the money elsewhere) is not part of the discussion."
...
Until they know definitively that Sasaki, the 2000 American League Rookie of the Year, is not part of their future, the Mariners won't be able to look at other uses for the money.
"The money attached to his contract is in place," Bavasi said. "He is still on our roster. That will remain so until such time as he is a free agent or he is released to sign with another club. At this point, (using the money elsewhere) is not part of the discussion."
...
Until they know definitively that Sasaki, the 2000 American League Rookie of the Year, is not part of their future, the Mariners won't be able to look at other uses for the money.
We bought out Joel Pineiro's arbitration years for $14.5m (including a $1.5m bonus) over three years. Now, Pineiro's a guy who benefits a great deal from Safeco field, but he's a tremendous pitcher, and this is nothing but good news. Mark Mulder has virtually identical home/road ERA splits, and nobody's saying anything bad about him.
Monday, January 19, 2004
I think it'd be fun to collect a bunch of predictions as to how our newfound money will be spent (if at all).
Submit your ideas in the Comments section. I'm guessing that we end up signing Maels Rodriguez and adding his money to the payroll, rather than using our mysterious international slush fund to pay for him.
Submit your ideas in the Comments section. I'm guessing that we end up signing Maels Rodriguez and adding his money to the payroll, rather than using our mysterious international slush fund to pay for him.
In a real turn of events, Kaz Sasaki will not return to the M's, according to Ken Rosenthal.
This is good news, in that it frees up a bunch of payroll; it's just a shame it didn't happen earlier in the offseason, when we could've made a bigger splash.
I'm going to assume that Hasegawa will become the new closer; Guardado is our primary left-handed reliever, and Soriano's too good to throw into the 9th inning role this early in his career (isn't he?). I don't think this will really change much around in the immediate future, but it does free up funds for a big midseason splash, something we've been lacking for the last four years.
This is good news, in that it frees up a bunch of payroll; it's just a shame it didn't happen earlier in the offseason, when we could've made a bigger splash.
I'm going to assume that Hasegawa will become the new closer; Guardado is our primary left-handed reliever, and Soriano's too good to throw into the 9th inning role this early in his career (isn't he?). I don't think this will really change much around in the immediate future, but it does free up funds for a big midseason splash, something we've been lacking for the last four years.
For your reading pleasure, here's a throwaway top-100 prospects list. Nageotte at #27, Snelling at #29, Choo at #45, and Lopez at #57.
Blackley (103), Johnson (116), and Hernandez (145) just barely miss out on the list.
Blackley (103), Johnson (116), and Hernandez (145) just barely miss out on the list.
Sunday, January 18, 2004
One of our NRI's this year is Hiram Bocachica, a 27 year old (28 by opening day) utility player snagged from Toledo, in Detroit's system. He's had a downhill trend thus far in his career, from being a first round draft pick in 1994, to being included in a package that sent then-decent Carlos Perez to LA for Ted Lilly, Peter Bergeron, and two others in 1998, to being dealt to Detroit for Tom Farmer (?) and a PTBNL in 2002. He has his uses, however, and even though I'll get tired of saying this, he'd help out our bench.
Defensively, he's been serviceable at 2b, LF, and RF, with experience in center and at third base. He hasn't had much success with the bat in the major leagues, but his minor league line is .285/.354/.444, flashing better plate discipline (0.52 bb/k) than he has in his brief ML career (0.23 bb/k). One of the reasons his progress has been stunted is that his 323 major league AB's have come in either LA or Detroit, with an OPS 98 points higher on the road than at home. Bocachica could be a very useful player if he could translate his minor league numbers into an ML statline with more success.
Even if he's as developed as he's going to get, he could still help the Mariners. He can't hit righties for beans, but he's put up a .262/.321/.429 line against southpaws, with considerably better patience than he has against right-handers (11bb/26k, as opposed to 8/55). He'll be 28 next year, the peak of his career, and if he's ever going to have real ML success, it'll have to come soon. Melvin would love his flexibility, and could platoon him with either Ibanez or Olerud when we're facing a pitcher of the Washburn/Zito/Mulder mold.
His inability to hit a right-handed pitcher will invariably put him out of favor with the organization's decision-makers in ST, though, and I wouldn't suggest betting good money on the notion that Bocachica will wind up on the 25-man roster come April.
Defensively, he's been serviceable at 2b, LF, and RF, with experience in center and at third base. He hasn't had much success with the bat in the major leagues, but his minor league line is .285/.354/.444, flashing better plate discipline (0.52 bb/k) than he has in his brief ML career (0.23 bb/k). One of the reasons his progress has been stunted is that his 323 major league AB's have come in either LA or Detroit, with an OPS 98 points higher on the road than at home. Bocachica could be a very useful player if he could translate his minor league numbers into an ML statline with more success.
Even if he's as developed as he's going to get, he could still help the Mariners. He can't hit righties for beans, but he's put up a .262/.321/.429 line against southpaws, with considerably better patience than he has against right-handers (11bb/26k, as opposed to 8/55). He'll be 28 next year, the peak of his career, and if he's ever going to have real ML success, it'll have to come soon. Melvin would love his flexibility, and could platoon him with either Ibanez or Olerud when we're facing a pitcher of the Washburn/Zito/Mulder mold.
His inability to hit a right-handed pitcher will invariably put him out of favor with the organization's decision-makers in ST, though, and I wouldn't suggest betting good money on the notion that Bocachica will wind up on the 25-man roster come April.
The pursuit of Maels Rodriguez is narrowing, and the Mariners remain high on the list of potential buyers. I must admit, there's a certain excitement here; there's a thrill in signing an Unknown that just isn't there when you trade for Quinton McCracken. That isn't to say that I endorse the signing, though, not for the amount of money he's rumored to be chasing.
At this point, I can imagine one scenario in which I'd support the signing: inking Rodriguez to a modest contract and shipping Freddy Garcia elsewhere for a bat. Rodriguez will be far too expensive to add without moving another high-priced player, and neither Sasaki nor Jarvis are going to bring anything in return. So here's the question: all money being about equal, would you rather have an unknown foreign pitcher or an unknown Freddy Garcia?
There are two big "If"s surrounding Rodriguez: whether or not he's healthy, and how his success will translate to the majors. Although we can't really depend on our crack medical staff to detect a significant injury, you can't really miss Rodriguez hitting 85 on the gun, instead of triple digits. As far as the second point is concerned, Jose Contreras pitched well when he was healthy, albeit against poor competition, to the tune of a .202/.297/.300 opponents' line and a k/9 ratio north of 9.00. I think Maels Rodriguez will have some success in the majors, as long as he isn't hurt, and I'm glad that the Mariners are going after him. I don't want him to get too much money, though (it could have gone towards Tejada or Guererro), and I certainly don't want his addition to signal the end of the Rafael Soriano Experience. Ideally, it would play out like this:
-Sign Maels Rodriguez to a modest contract (I'll have to wait and see what teams are offering, in terms of money and length)
-Trade Freddy Garcia for an OF/1B type who can hit lefties (Xavier Nady would be welcome)
-Put Soriano in the rotation and Rodriguez in the bullpen until/unless he proves himself and a starter struggles or gets hurt
I'm not particularly optimistic that we'll wind up with him, anyway, but it's probably the most interesting Mariners-related story these days.
At this point, I can imagine one scenario in which I'd support the signing: inking Rodriguez to a modest contract and shipping Freddy Garcia elsewhere for a bat. Rodriguez will be far too expensive to add without moving another high-priced player, and neither Sasaki nor Jarvis are going to bring anything in return. So here's the question: all money being about equal, would you rather have an unknown foreign pitcher or an unknown Freddy Garcia?
There are two big "If"s surrounding Rodriguez: whether or not he's healthy, and how his success will translate to the majors. Although we can't really depend on our crack medical staff to detect a significant injury, you can't really miss Rodriguez hitting 85 on the gun, instead of triple digits. As far as the second point is concerned, Jose Contreras pitched well when he was healthy, albeit against poor competition, to the tune of a .202/.297/.300 opponents' line and a k/9 ratio north of 9.00. I think Maels Rodriguez will have some success in the majors, as long as he isn't hurt, and I'm glad that the Mariners are going after him. I don't want him to get too much money, though (it could have gone towards Tejada or Guererro), and I certainly don't want his addition to signal the end of the Rafael Soriano Experience. Ideally, it would play out like this:
-Sign Maels Rodriguez to a modest contract (I'll have to wait and see what teams are offering, in terms of money and length)
-Trade Freddy Garcia for an OF/1B type who can hit lefties (Xavier Nady would be welcome)
-Put Soriano in the rotation and Rodriguez in the bullpen until/unless he proves himself and a starter struggles or gets hurt
I'm not particularly optimistic that we'll wind up with him, anyway, but it's probably the most interesting Mariners-related story these days.
Saturday, January 17, 2004
One good thing about being back in New England is that I get NESN. As coincidence would have it, the Bruins played in Ottawa tonight, and I caught it live.
What an effort.
Martin Prusek is making a good case for being the best backup goalie in the NHL, having posted back-to-back shutouts against Boston as bookends to their seven-game unbeaten streak. Ottawa's one point behind Toronto for the division lead, with two fewer games played.
What an effort.
Martin Prusek is making a good case for being the best backup goalie in the NHL, having posted back-to-back shutouts against Boston as bookends to their seven-game unbeaten streak. Ottawa's one point behind Toronto for the division lead, with two fewer games played.
Friday, January 16, 2004
Mike Myers, predictably, is a Mariner, according to Mike Thompson at the PI Blog. Since 2001, Myers has held lefties to a .236/.326/.366 line, but he has control problems, having posted a bb/9 ratio alarmingly close to 5 over the same time span. While he doesn't get hit particularly hard, he puts a ton of people on base, which isn't what you want from a situational reliever.
The Detroit Tigers have thrown caution to the wind and offered a $40m/4year contract to Ivan Rodriguez.
Brandon Inge must feel great about himself right now.
Brandon Inge must feel great about himself right now.
Jeremy Giambi signed a minor league contract today with the Dodgers, a year after putting up a .197/.342/.354 line off the bench for Boston.
Giambi, like 98% of all professional baseball players, could have helped out the bench this year, and with a minor league deal there's no risk (and the potential for a big gain). He's a lefty, too, which we know the front office loves, but his personal history doesn't really scream "future Mariner" to anyone.
Giambi, like 98% of all professional baseball players, could have helped out the bench this year, and with a minor league deal there's no risk (and the potential for a big gain). He's a lefty, too, which we know the front office loves, but his personal history doesn't really scream "future Mariner" to anyone.
In today's breaking news, the Milwaukee Brewers have been put on sale. Reports cite Wendy Selig-Prieb as saying in a press conference that the team is looking for a local owner who won't move the franchise.
In case you hadn't heard, Scott Sauerbeck won't pitch this season, narrowing down the second lefty possibilities to Myers, Sherrill, Madritsch, and *sigh* Blackley.
Mike Matthews is off the list of available southpaw relievers. Minor league deal with the Reds.
No big loss.
No big loss.
We all know what's going to happen.
Following a minor bidding war, Maels Rodriguez will sign an expensive three-year deal with Seattle and promptly get suspended for a year for lying about his age.
Following a minor bidding war, Maels Rodriguez will sign an expensive three-year deal with Seattle and promptly get suspended for a year for lying about his age.
Art Theil didn't make any new friends in the front office with today's piece.
The column pretty much echoes the general consensus of the blogosphere; the only part with which I take issue is the implied parallelism between elite baseball players and Keanu Reeves.
The column pretty much echoes the general consensus of the blogosphere; the only part with which I take issue is the implied parallelism between elite baseball players and Keanu Reeves.
Thursday, January 15, 2004
They just keep on impressing.
Falling behind the Islanders 4-0 on home ice with under six minutes left in the second period is terrible, if not inexcusable. I wonder how many teams could muster the intestinal fortitude to fight through the final period and tie the game.
I love this team.
Falling behind the Islanders 4-0 on home ice with under six minutes left in the second period is terrible, if not inexcusable. I wonder how many teams could muster the intestinal fortitude to fight through the final period and tie the game.
I love this team.
In the spirit of recognizing flaws in Seattle's shiny new front office, allow me to suggest that Bill Bavasi has never heard the phrase "buy low, sell high" in his life.
Eddie Guardado was given closer money to be a setup man. Raul Ibanez, Scott Spiezio, and Ichiro all signed new contracts after letdown years, but the amount of money involved in these transactions indicates that ol' Billy hasn't once considered the idea that the three players came into the offseason with less value than they had a year ago. Freddy Garcia, his value having reached an absolute minimum (given the context of his career), was presented with an identical sum to the one he signed for last offseason, despite the fact that his performance was spottier in 2003 than the year before.
On the other side of the coin, Bavasi shipped Colbrunn and Guillen away for a combined package we may euphemistically label as "driftwood". Nevermind that each player, when healthy, is quite useful; keeping them for a few weeks into the year to allow them to get some at bats and hit the ball would greatly increase their trade value, and in the event that one of them gets hurt, you really aren't any worse off in that situation than you are trading them for rubbish. Of the four trades we've witnessed this offseason (excluding the nixed Guillen and Cirillo deals), the only one in which Bavasi "sold high" was the Simpson/Buglovsky deal, in which we gave away some potentially useful bullpen fodder in exchange for an offspeed demon coming off a 4.83 ERA in AA (with terrible peripherals). We may, for the sake of argument, assume that Jeff Cirillo's quantitative value entered a perpetual vacuum two years ago.
Possibly the most maddening of anything, though, is the apparent reluctance to examine the market for Ryan Franklin. Everybody and their grandmother is aware that, more than any other player in baseball, Franklin has reached his peak. His 2003 ERA was 42 points better than his CERA, and had he been pitching in front of a league-average defense, rather than one of the best in baseball history, his ERA may have approached 5. Even if the Mariners are completely and utterly unaware of this - which would come as no surprise to me - they know that Rafael Soriano is a more than capable starter who needs to get an extended rotation audition sometime soon, and also that we have more than our fair share of high-ceiling hurlers coming up the ladder. And so, with this knowledge, Bavasi decided to re-sign Freddy Garcia and hold on to Ryan Franklin.
There is a market for guys like Franklin, pitchers who put up a shiny ERA despite ominous peripherals. I know for a fact that the Brewers were interested in him earlier in the offseason, but were apparently turned away. Suppose that a willing-to-play-third-base Junior Spivey was offered to us in exchange for Ryan Franklin (prior to our signing Scott Spiezio); would you do it? What if the deal was bigger, including Geoff Jenkins and Franklin as the biggest names? It's impossible to know what the market is for a guy like Ryan, but it's something the Mariners should investigate sometime before the season starts and he loses his trade value. When you have the possibility to upgrade at a weak position while suffering little or no dropoff in the rotation, why run the risk of having your pitcher exposed the next year? All you wind up with is an ineffective rotation spot and the same weak position you could have remedied earlier. The Mariners are taking the same gamble with Franklin that they are the rest of their players; the team depends on its assumption that everyone on the roster will perform at the same level as they did in 2003, if not exceed that performance.
It's just too bad that guys like Franklin haven't had the best track record.
Eddie Guardado was given closer money to be a setup man. Raul Ibanez, Scott Spiezio, and Ichiro all signed new contracts after letdown years, but the amount of money involved in these transactions indicates that ol' Billy hasn't once considered the idea that the three players came into the offseason with less value than they had a year ago. Freddy Garcia, his value having reached an absolute minimum (given the context of his career), was presented with an identical sum to the one he signed for last offseason, despite the fact that his performance was spottier in 2003 than the year before.
On the other side of the coin, Bavasi shipped Colbrunn and Guillen away for a combined package we may euphemistically label as "driftwood". Nevermind that each player, when healthy, is quite useful; keeping them for a few weeks into the year to allow them to get some at bats and hit the ball would greatly increase their trade value, and in the event that one of them gets hurt, you really aren't any worse off in that situation than you are trading them for rubbish. Of the four trades we've witnessed this offseason (excluding the nixed Guillen and Cirillo deals), the only one in which Bavasi "sold high" was the Simpson/Buglovsky deal, in which we gave away some potentially useful bullpen fodder in exchange for an offspeed demon coming off a 4.83 ERA in AA (with terrible peripherals). We may, for the sake of argument, assume that Jeff Cirillo's quantitative value entered a perpetual vacuum two years ago.
Possibly the most maddening of anything, though, is the apparent reluctance to examine the market for Ryan Franklin. Everybody and their grandmother is aware that, more than any other player in baseball, Franklin has reached his peak. His 2003 ERA was 42 points better than his CERA, and had he been pitching in front of a league-average defense, rather than one of the best in baseball history, his ERA may have approached 5. Even if the Mariners are completely and utterly unaware of this - which would come as no surprise to me - they know that Rafael Soriano is a more than capable starter who needs to get an extended rotation audition sometime soon, and also that we have more than our fair share of high-ceiling hurlers coming up the ladder. And so, with this knowledge, Bavasi decided to re-sign Freddy Garcia and hold on to Ryan Franklin.
There is a market for guys like Franklin, pitchers who put up a shiny ERA despite ominous peripherals. I know for a fact that the Brewers were interested in him earlier in the offseason, but were apparently turned away. Suppose that a willing-to-play-third-base Junior Spivey was offered to us in exchange for Ryan Franklin (prior to our signing Scott Spiezio); would you do it? What if the deal was bigger, including Geoff Jenkins and Franklin as the biggest names? It's impossible to know what the market is for a guy like Ryan, but it's something the Mariners should investigate sometime before the season starts and he loses his trade value. When you have the possibility to upgrade at a weak position while suffering little or no dropoff in the rotation, why run the risk of having your pitcher exposed the next year? All you wind up with is an ineffective rotation spot and the same weak position you could have remedied earlier. The Mariners are taking the same gamble with Franklin that they are the rest of their players; the team depends on its assumption that everyone on the roster will perform at the same level as they did in 2003, if not exceed that performance.
It's just too bad that guys like Franklin haven't had the best track record.
Does anyone want to speculate as to this guy's fate had he been a Mariner last year?
After Houston's final game last season, Wagner accused McLane of trying to keep the Astros competitive with "tape jobs" and not pushing them toward the playoffs.
Wagner's got a few quotable quotes in there, including "...they got rid of me because they don't like me," and "I'm happy for the team, and wish I was a part of it...". You can take this in one of two ways: either Wagner will set out with something to prove in 2004, that it was a mistake for Houston to deal him, or that he really does miss Houston, and will perform below his abilities. I guess the third option is that they're just words that have little or not bearing on his 2004 season, but that's too easy and not worth writing about.
There's a tangentially related quote from Gerry Hunsicker at the end of the article that caught my eye, as well:
"I'm disappointed that I continue hearing that we are trying to dump Richard Hidalgo, that's unfair and untrue," Hunsicker said. "Richard is a very important part of our offense, and I don't anticipate a move regarding him at this time."
Houston's roster management is, in a word, curious. Unable to decide whether they're a small- or big-market team, they act like a combination of both, dealing a replaceable Wagner to save money but adamantly refusing to deal a replaceable Hidalgo at the same time. They threw unspeakable heaps of money at Andy Pettite, including a final year in the contract worth $17.5m (with $7.5m deferred until 2008), the same year they'll be paying Jeff Bagwell seventeen million undeserved dollars. This worthless $27.5m on the 2006 payroll will inhibit Houston's ability to pay Roy Oswalt, in what will be his final arbitration year, and will likewise cut into their ability to pay Lance Berkman, if they decide to give him a multiyear deal. They're headed for payroll doom (of a lesser sort than the Yankees future holds), which is a dire situation for a team whose top prospect put up a .659 OPS as a 23 year old catcher in AAA. In recent years, they've been able to remain afloat due to a virtual pipeline of cheap, adequate talent flowing from the system, but this is a luxury they'll have to do without in the next few years.
In the short term, the Astros have a few extremely talented young players (Berkman, Oswalt, Dotel, Lidge, to name a few) who provide terrific value for the dollar. Down the road, though, these guys will either be more expensive or playing elsewhere, and Houston will need to make up for the loss, or else risk total collapse.
After Houston's final game last season, Wagner accused McLane of trying to keep the Astros competitive with "tape jobs" and not pushing them toward the playoffs.
Wagner's got a few quotable quotes in there, including "...they got rid of me because they don't like me," and "I'm happy for the team, and wish I was a part of it...". You can take this in one of two ways: either Wagner will set out with something to prove in 2004, that it was a mistake for Houston to deal him, or that he really does miss Houston, and will perform below his abilities. I guess the third option is that they're just words that have little or not bearing on his 2004 season, but that's too easy and not worth writing about.
There's a tangentially related quote from Gerry Hunsicker at the end of the article that caught my eye, as well:
"I'm disappointed that I continue hearing that we are trying to dump Richard Hidalgo, that's unfair and untrue," Hunsicker said. "Richard is a very important part of our offense, and I don't anticipate a move regarding him at this time."
Houston's roster management is, in a word, curious. Unable to decide whether they're a small- or big-market team, they act like a combination of both, dealing a replaceable Wagner to save money but adamantly refusing to deal a replaceable Hidalgo at the same time. They threw unspeakable heaps of money at Andy Pettite, including a final year in the contract worth $17.5m (with $7.5m deferred until 2008), the same year they'll be paying Jeff Bagwell seventeen million undeserved dollars. This worthless $27.5m on the 2006 payroll will inhibit Houston's ability to pay Roy Oswalt, in what will be his final arbitration year, and will likewise cut into their ability to pay Lance Berkman, if they decide to give him a multiyear deal. They're headed for payroll doom (of a lesser sort than the Yankees future holds), which is a dire situation for a team whose top prospect put up a .659 OPS as a 23 year old catcher in AAA. In recent years, they've been able to remain afloat due to a virtual pipeline of cheap, adequate talent flowing from the system, but this is a luxury they'll have to do without in the next few years.
In the short term, the Astros have a few extremely talented young players (Berkman, Oswalt, Dotel, Lidge, to name a few) who provide terrific value for the dollar. Down the road, though, these guys will either be more expensive or playing elsewhere, and Houston will need to make up for the loss, or else risk total collapse.
Wednesday, January 14, 2004
Adam, over at his Texas Rangers blog, had a terrific post tonight, inspired by one of the more blatant cases of irresponsible journalism I've read in quite some time.
The article, written by Gerry Fraley, includes a paragraph (ironically entitled "Smart Money") that applauds Anaheim's recent spending spree while condemning the Alex Rodriguez contract. One could argue - perhaps quite convincingly - that Anaheim got better value per dollar than the Rangers did when they signed Rodriguez, but Fraley's attempted justification of his point ventures well beyond conventional opining and into the realm of intentional deception.
Smart money: Anaheim's spree offers more evidence as to why the Alex Rodriguez contract has never made and will never make sense. The Angels added the best outfielder in the game in Vladimir Guerrero, a front-line outfielder in Jose Guillen and two quality starting pitchers in Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar at a total commitment of $145.8 million. That is $106.2 million less than the Rangers' commitment to Rodriguez.
It is a fact that Anaheim has made a lesser aggregate commitment to its four players than Texas did to Rodriguez, but this is misleading. The Angels will be paying an average of $36m per year to the four aforementioned FA signings, whereas the Rangers will be on the hook for $24-25m for Alex Rodriguez. Whether or not you believe that A-Rod is worth the money he's getting, the Anaheim foursome will be collecting approximately 150% as much money per season as Alex Rodriguez. The main difference between Anaheim's contract's and Alex Rodriguez's is that the latter was given more guaranteed years, thus upping the total amount of his contract.
In order to further his wholly inaccurate point, Fraley embellishes Anaheim's FA signings. Adam does a good job of breaking each player down, but for the sake of brevity:
-Vladimir Guerrero fought with a significant back injury last year which could flare up again at any moment (although Will Carroll doesn't think it's a big deal).
-Jose Guillen is not a front-line outfielder.
-Both Colon and Escobar have question marks, the former being conspicuously out of shape, the latter being maddeningly inconsistent.
Alex Rodriguez, of course, is arguably the most valuable player in baseball; certainly the most valuable in the American League. He is a 28 year old shortstop who hits like a DH, plays the best defense at his position in the AL, and isn't showing any signs of imminent decline or fragility.
To quote Adam:
This is a level of intellectual dishonesty that offends me, as a reader. It indicates to me that either the author doesn't care whether his arguments are blatantly transparent, suggesting that he is just cynically trolling to elicit a response, or he holds the reader in such low esteem that he feels that they aren't smart enough to catch the logical distortions in his arguments. Either way, I find it insulting.
Gerry Fraley has never liked the Alex Rodriguez contract, considering it to be inexplicably expensive and inhibitive. As a professional journalist, he should know better than to risk further damage to his credibility (if such a thing is possible) by deliberately blurring the facts and misleading his readers in order to make an erroneous point.
The article, written by Gerry Fraley, includes a paragraph (ironically entitled "Smart Money") that applauds Anaheim's recent spending spree while condemning the Alex Rodriguez contract. One could argue - perhaps quite convincingly - that Anaheim got better value per dollar than the Rangers did when they signed Rodriguez, but Fraley's attempted justification of his point ventures well beyond conventional opining and into the realm of intentional deception.
Smart money: Anaheim's spree offers more evidence as to why the Alex Rodriguez contract has never made and will never make sense. The Angels added the best outfielder in the game in Vladimir Guerrero, a front-line outfielder in Jose Guillen and two quality starting pitchers in Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar at a total commitment of $145.8 million. That is $106.2 million less than the Rangers' commitment to Rodriguez.
It is a fact that Anaheim has made a lesser aggregate commitment to its four players than Texas did to Rodriguez, but this is misleading. The Angels will be paying an average of $36m per year to the four aforementioned FA signings, whereas the Rangers will be on the hook for $24-25m for Alex Rodriguez. Whether or not you believe that A-Rod is worth the money he's getting, the Anaheim foursome will be collecting approximately 150% as much money per season as Alex Rodriguez. The main difference between Anaheim's contract's and Alex Rodriguez's is that the latter was given more guaranteed years, thus upping the total amount of his contract.
In order to further his wholly inaccurate point, Fraley embellishes Anaheim's FA signings. Adam does a good job of breaking each player down, but for the sake of brevity:
-Vladimir Guerrero fought with a significant back injury last year which could flare up again at any moment (although Will Carroll doesn't think it's a big deal).
-Jose Guillen is not a front-line outfielder.
-Both Colon and Escobar have question marks, the former being conspicuously out of shape, the latter being maddeningly inconsistent.
Alex Rodriguez, of course, is arguably the most valuable player in baseball; certainly the most valuable in the American League. He is a 28 year old shortstop who hits like a DH, plays the best defense at his position in the AL, and isn't showing any signs of imminent decline or fragility.
To quote Adam:
This is a level of intellectual dishonesty that offends me, as a reader. It indicates to me that either the author doesn't care whether his arguments are blatantly transparent, suggesting that he is just cynically trolling to elicit a response, or he holds the reader in such low esteem that he feels that they aren't smart enough to catch the logical distortions in his arguments. Either way, I find it insulting.
Gerry Fraley has never liked the Alex Rodriguez contract, considering it to be inexplicably expensive and inhibitive. As a professional journalist, he should know better than to risk further damage to his credibility (if such a thing is possible) by deliberately blurring the facts and misleading his readers in order to make an erroneous point.
Tuesday, January 13, 2004
Biggest win of the year?
It's one of them, anyway; beating the Leafs 7-1 in their place was impressive, but they weren't at full strength, whereas the Devils didn't have any such excuses.
A season that began so poorly has taken a turn for the better in the last month, and suddenly Ottawa can be considered a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. We can all hope that Daniel Alfredsson's promise of triumph goes as well as Chad Johnson's.
It's one of them, anyway; beating the Leafs 7-1 in their place was impressive, but they weren't at full strength, whereas the Devils didn't have any such excuses.
A season that began so poorly has taken a turn for the better in the last month, and suddenly Ottawa can be considered a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. We can all hope that Daniel Alfredsson's promise of triumph goes as well as Chad Johnson's.
Andy Brown sums up the offseason over at Ballpark Analysis. In short, he agrees with the blogosphere consensus that Bavasi sucks, but also offers a shred of optimism:
That said, the Mariners still have a very good chance at making the playoffs. The A’s, at least on paper, would not appear to be better (and many expect them to be worse) and while the Angels have greatly improved, they may not have improved enough to seriously challenge the leaders.
At this point, I don't think that we're significantly worse in the short-term; our bench is terrible, but it wasn't particularly good last year, and whatever production we get from Spiezio will be a dramatic upgrade over the Dueling Banjos. 2005 is when Bavasi will ruin the team, unless he suddenly picks up a book and learns about replacement-level talent before the next offseason is upon us.
That said, the Mariners still have a very good chance at making the playoffs. The A’s, at least on paper, would not appear to be better (and many expect them to be worse) and while the Angels have greatly improved, they may not have improved enough to seriously challenge the leaders.
At this point, I don't think that we're significantly worse in the short-term; our bench is terrible, but it wasn't particularly good last year, and whatever production we get from Spiezio will be a dramatic upgrade over the Dueling Banjos. 2005 is when Bavasi will ruin the team, unless he suddenly picks up a book and learns about replacement-level talent before the next offseason is upon us.
Terrmel Sledge tested positive for steroids. He's been banned from international competition for two years.
Looks like Cirillo is headed to Pittsburgh.
I don't really like the deal from a San Diego standpoint, as it's going to hurt them when the rest of the roster is ready to compete.
Update: The trade is dead. Oh, and San Diego grabbed Jay Payton off the scrapheap.
I don't really like the deal from a San Diego standpoint, as it's going to hurt them when the rest of the roster is ready to compete.
Update: The trade is dead. Oh, and San Diego grabbed Jay Payton off the scrapheap.
I'm with Jeremy. Cam Neely was a terrific player who would be considered one of the best in history, if not for his hip injury.
Put Cam Neely in the Hockey HOF.
Put Cam Neely in the Hockey HOF.
Monday, January 12, 2004
I've completed my mini-project concerning park factors. I've put together a spreadsheet detailing each park's impact on Batting Average and Slugging Percentage (I excluded OBP because the park shouldn't have an influence on walks, errors, or HBP's, meaning that the numbers would look awful similar to the BA list). What follows are two lists: the first lists parks favorable to batting average in decreasing order; the second lists parks favorable to SLG in decreasing order. These are solely based on 2003 statistics.
Batting Average (Percent above/below road BA)
1. Colorado (+10.3%)
2. Texas (+9.5%)
3. Boston (+9.2%)
4. Kansas City (+7.4%)
5. Montreal (+6.8%; I don't have separate stats for Olympic Stadium and Hiram Bithorn)
6. Arizona (+5.7%)
7. San Francisco (+4.1%)
8. Toronto (+3.5%)
9. Pittsburgh (+3.4%)
10. New York Mets (+2.0%)
11. Minnesota (+0.9%)
12. Houston (+0.3%)
13. Cincinatti (-0.5%)
14. Tampa Bay (-0.7%)
15. Chicago Cubs (-1.3%)
16. Anaheim (-1.4%)
17. Chicago White Sox (-2.0%)
18. St Louis (-2.0%)
19. Baltimore (-2.2%)
20. Atlanta (-2.5%)
21. Milwaukee (-2.5%)
22. New York Yankees (-2.8%)
23. San Diego (-4.2%)
24. Philadelphia (-5.0%)
25. Oakland (-5.1%)
26. Detroit (-5.9%)
27. Cleveland (-6.2%)
28. Seattle (-6.4%)
29. Los Angeles (-6.6%)
30. Florida (-6.6%)
Slugging Percentage (Percent above/below road SLG)
1. Montreal (+17.3%)
2. Colorado (+17.3%)
3. Texas (+13.2%)
4. Arizona (+12.2%)
5. Toronto (+7.6%)
6. Kansas City (+6.8%)
7. Chicago White Sox (+6.0%)
8. Boston (+6.0%)
9. Houston (+4.5%)
10. Milwaukee (+3.6%)
11. Cincinatti (+2.3%)
12. Minnesota (+1.5%)
13. Pittsburgh (-0.5%)
14. San Francisco (-1.2%)
15. Baltimore (-2.5%)
16. Chicago Cubs (-2.7%)
17. New York Mets (-2.8%)
18. Los Angeles (-2.8%)
19. Oakland (-3.5%)
20. Tampa Bay (-4.3%)
21. New York Yankees (-5.1%)
22. Philadelphia (-5.3%)
23. Atlanta (-5.6%)
24. Anaheim (-5.9%)
25. Seattle (-6.3%)
26. St Louis (-6.9%)
27. San Diego (-8.6%)
28. Detroit (-9.0%)
29. Florida (-10.9%)
30. Cleveland (-11.9%)
According to these numbers, the top five hitter's parks in 2003 were:
1. Colorado
2. Montreal (combined)
3. Texas
4. Arizona
5. Boston
...and the top five pitcher's parks in 2003 were:
1. Cleveland
2. Florida
3. Detroit
4. San Diego
5. Seattle
Update: According to Baseball-Reference, Hiram Bithorn and Olympic Stadium were 1-2 in terms of hitter friendliness in 2003. So, there you go. Thanks for pointing that out, Steve.
Batting Average (Percent above/below road BA)
1. Colorado (+10.3%)
2. Texas (+9.5%)
3. Boston (+9.2%)
4. Kansas City (+7.4%)
5. Montreal (+6.8%; I don't have separate stats for Olympic Stadium and Hiram Bithorn)
6. Arizona (+5.7%)
7. San Francisco (+4.1%)
8. Toronto (+3.5%)
9. Pittsburgh (+3.4%)
10. New York Mets (+2.0%)
11. Minnesota (+0.9%)
12. Houston (+0.3%)
13. Cincinatti (-0.5%)
14. Tampa Bay (-0.7%)
15. Chicago Cubs (-1.3%)
16. Anaheim (-1.4%)
17. Chicago White Sox (-2.0%)
18. St Louis (-2.0%)
19. Baltimore (-2.2%)
20. Atlanta (-2.5%)
21. Milwaukee (-2.5%)
22. New York Yankees (-2.8%)
23. San Diego (-4.2%)
24. Philadelphia (-5.0%)
25. Oakland (-5.1%)
26. Detroit (-5.9%)
27. Cleveland (-6.2%)
28. Seattle (-6.4%)
29. Los Angeles (-6.6%)
30. Florida (-6.6%)
Slugging Percentage (Percent above/below road SLG)
1. Montreal (+17.3%)
2. Colorado (+17.3%)
3. Texas (+13.2%)
4. Arizona (+12.2%)
5. Toronto (+7.6%)
6. Kansas City (+6.8%)
7. Chicago White Sox (+6.0%)
8. Boston (+6.0%)
9. Houston (+4.5%)
10. Milwaukee (+3.6%)
11. Cincinatti (+2.3%)
12. Minnesota (+1.5%)
13. Pittsburgh (-0.5%)
14. San Francisco (-1.2%)
15. Baltimore (-2.5%)
16. Chicago Cubs (-2.7%)
17. New York Mets (-2.8%)
18. Los Angeles (-2.8%)
19. Oakland (-3.5%)
20. Tampa Bay (-4.3%)
21. New York Yankees (-5.1%)
22. Philadelphia (-5.3%)
23. Atlanta (-5.6%)
24. Anaheim (-5.9%)
25. Seattle (-6.3%)
26. St Louis (-6.9%)
27. San Diego (-8.6%)
28. Detroit (-9.0%)
29. Florida (-10.9%)
30. Cleveland (-11.9%)
According to these numbers, the top five hitter's parks in 2003 were:
1. Colorado
2. Montreal (combined)
3. Texas
4. Arizona
5. Boston
...and the top five pitcher's parks in 2003 were:
1. Cleveland
2. Florida
3. Detroit
4. San Diego
5. Seattle
Update: According to Baseball-Reference, Hiram Bithorn and Olympic Stadium were 1-2 in terms of hitter friendliness in 2003. So, there you go. Thanks for pointing that out, Steve.
Ryan Franklin's 2003 Component ERA:
3.99 (His actual ERA was 3.57; the large difference is due in part to both luck and defense)
25% of balls put in play against Franklin dropped for hits. Let's say this is bumped up to 29% (which would be about league average)
Ryan Franklin's Defense-Adjusted 2003 Component ERA:
4.85.
Yeehaw.
3.99 (His actual ERA was 3.57; the large difference is due in part to both luck and defense)
25% of balls put in play against Franklin dropped for hits. Let's say this is bumped up to 29% (which would be about league average)
Ryan Franklin's Defense-Adjusted 2003 Component ERA:
4.85.
Yeehaw.
A few days late, but here's a report on Soriano's Winter League performance:
Starting Pitcher - Rafael Soriano (Escogido/Mariners), 1 -1 - 0.21 ERA in seven starts
Sure, Esteban Yan and Robert Ellis won more games (5), Doug Linton pitched more innings and had a 1.48 ERA, and Juan Cruz had arguably the best stuff in the league. But, what do you do with a 0.21 ERA? Ignore it? If a pitcher's job is to prevent the other team from scoring runs, nobody was better than Soriano this season. As we mentioned in a previous report, his strikeout-to-walk ratio should have been better, considering his superior stuff, but the guy allowed just 19 hits and TWO extra-base hits in 42.1 innings pitched. It wasn't his teammates either, as he pitched in front of the league's worst defense according to defensive efficiency ratings. The Lions featured one of the worst offensive groups in the history of the league, scoring just 3.3 runs per game. With an average offense, defense, and bullpen, the guy should have won at least four games.
In the end, Soriano was 0.006 runs short of the single-season ERA record established by Bartolo Colón in the 1996-97 season. Colón allowed one earned run (four in total) in 43.2 innings pitched for a 0.206 ERA, a slightly better mark than Soriano's 0.212 this season.
If you're a BP Premium subscriber, you can find the rest of the article here.
Starting Pitcher - Rafael Soriano (Escogido/Mariners), 1 -1 - 0.21 ERA in seven starts
Sure, Esteban Yan and Robert Ellis won more games (5), Doug Linton pitched more innings and had a 1.48 ERA, and Juan Cruz had arguably the best stuff in the league. But, what do you do with a 0.21 ERA? Ignore it? If a pitcher's job is to prevent the other team from scoring runs, nobody was better than Soriano this season. As we mentioned in a previous report, his strikeout-to-walk ratio should have been better, considering his superior stuff, but the guy allowed just 19 hits and TWO extra-base hits in 42.1 innings pitched. It wasn't his teammates either, as he pitched in front of the league's worst defense according to defensive efficiency ratings. The Lions featured one of the worst offensive groups in the history of the league, scoring just 3.3 runs per game. With an average offense, defense, and bullpen, the guy should have won at least four games.
In the end, Soriano was 0.006 runs short of the single-season ERA record established by Bartolo Colón in the 1996-97 season. Colón allowed one earned run (four in total) in 43.2 innings pitched for a 0.206 ERA, a slightly better mark than Soriano's 0.212 this season.
If you're a BP Premium subscriber, you can find the rest of the article here.
Sunday, January 11, 2004
Question for the readers:
With the knowledge that Anaheim has vastly upgraded its roster, and that Oakland should be about as good (or better) than they were last year (I don't think the offense is going to get any worse than it was), should the Mariners go out and bring in a short-term bopper to try to put us over the top this year, or should they suffer some short-term losses and build for the future?
(I omitted the option of "Do neither by acquiring guys who won't help in 2004 *or* the future" because it upsets me.)
Leave your opinion in the comments section of this post.
With the knowledge that Anaheim has vastly upgraded its roster, and that Oakland should be about as good (or better) than they were last year (I don't think the offense is going to get any worse than it was), should the Mariners go out and bring in a short-term bopper to try to put us over the top this year, or should they suffer some short-term losses and build for the future?
(I omitted the option of "Do neither by acquiring guys who won't help in 2004 *or* the future" because it upsets me.)
Leave your opinion in the comments section of this post.
I have a great deal of respect for the guys over at USS Mariner, and I appreciate that they let us know about something interesting when it comes up, but unless they want 50% of the Mariner fan base to commit suicide tonight, I question the wisdom in reporting the Soriano rumor. Having Guerrero go to Anaheim hurt plenty; the last thing we need is Bavasi making a knee-jerk blockbuster trade where we deal Soriano and an A-ball live arm for Moises Alou.
This post is in response to a comment left by RD following this post of mine:
The Ballpark in Arlington inflates BA/OBP/SLG by 9%/6%/13%.
Coors inflates BA/OBP/SLG by 11%/6%/17%.
It's closer than I thought, but Coors still reigns supreme as the top hitter's park in baseball (although I don't have numbers on Bithorn).
The Ballpark in Arlington inflates BA/OBP/SLG by 9%/6%/13%.
Coors inflates BA/OBP/SLG by 11%/6%/17%.
It's closer than I thought, but Coors still reigns supreme as the top hitter's park in baseball (although I don't have numbers on Bithorn).
What can you say about something like this?
A terrific player - one of the best in the game - enters the free agent market during his assumed prime. He fills an obvious need, and better yet, has few suitors after the big boys finish their little arms race. If that isn't sufficient, your team has more than enough money to pay the player what he wants without having to take a major hit somewhere else on the roster.
So how do you explain Bill Bavasi completely ignoring Vladimir Guerrero?
I don't know, and, quite frankly, I don't want to know. I'm going to sleep, where Ottawa beats Toronto, the Mariners sign useful players, and pigs fly out of my ass.
A terrific player - one of the best in the game - enters the free agent market during his assumed prime. He fills an obvious need, and better yet, has few suitors after the big boys finish their little arms race. If that isn't sufficient, your team has more than enough money to pay the player what he wants without having to take a major hit somewhere else on the roster.
So how do you explain Bill Bavasi completely ignoring Vladimir Guerrero?
I don't know, and, quite frankly, I don't want to know. I'm going to sleep, where Ottawa beats Toronto, the Mariners sign useful players, and pigs fly out of my ass.
Vladimir Guerrero has reportedly agreed to a multiyear deal with...
...the Anaheim Angels.
If that isn't a kick in the teeth...
Update: ESPN is confirming the story, but their source is the NY Daily News, so take that for what it's worth.
...the Anaheim Angels.
If that isn't a kick in the teeth...
Update: ESPN is confirming the story, but their source is the NY Daily News, so take that for what it's worth.
Saturday, January 10, 2004
Rafael Palmeiro has signed a $4m/1year deal with Baltimore. For the curious, their lineup looks something like this:
Hairston
Mora
Tejada
Palmeiro
Gibbons
Lopez
Bigbie
Matos
Cust/Segui/Cordova/etc
One can only imagine what the lineup will look like if Guerrero signs with Baltimore; the Marlins are apparently denying that they've made an inquisitive offer.
Of course, when your best pitcher is arguably Rodrigo Lopez...
Hairston
Mora
Tejada
Palmeiro
Gibbons
Lopez
Bigbie
Matos
Cust/Segui/Cordova/etc
One can only imagine what the lineup will look like if Guerrero signs with Baltimore; the Marlins are apparently denying that they've made an inquisitive offer.
Of course, when your best pitcher is arguably Rodrigo Lopez...
Rumor has it that Vladimir Guerrero is leaning towards signing a $10m/1year deal with Florida.
This is good news, I guess, in that it means he'd be available against next offseason, when we'll have to replace Edgar Martinez (Olerud too, for what it's worth).
This is good news, I guess, in that it means he'd be available against next offseason, when we'll have to replace Edgar Martinez (Olerud too, for what it's worth).
The Texas Rangers might rival the Mariners as having the worst beat writers in the league.
Jim Reeves seems to think that the problem with Texas is the ballpark, saying (and I quote): "I love The Ballpark in Arlington, but it has surpassed Coors Field as the most prolific hitting park in baseball."
Other than "you are completely and utterly incorrect", I don't know what to tell him.
Jim Reeves seems to think that the problem with Texas is the ballpark, saying (and I quote): "I love The Ballpark in Arlington, but it has surpassed Coors Field as the most prolific hitting park in baseball."
Other than "you are completely and utterly incorrect", I don't know what to tell him.
The Life & Times of Bill Bavasi, as explained by the Talking Heads.
And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack
And you may find yourself in another part of the world
And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife
And you may ask yourself-Well...How did I get here?
Bavasi had an up-and-down tenure in Anaheim, eventually resigning (under pressure) in 1999 when the team imploded. Despised in Anaheim by players and fans alike (as exhibited by the boos he received when introduced before a game last season), he hopped on I-5 and drove to LA, where he acted as the head of a perennially disappointing farm system. Players who looked so promising in the lower levels would stall against tougher competition. Bavasi found himself in a wholly undesirable situation, having been run off from one city and failing to do his job in another.
Enter Howard Lincoln, professional motivator. Nevermind his past; Bavasi was handed the keys to the Mariners, a profitable and, more importantly, competitive franchise that has been on the verge of serious contention for four years. The team had challenged the Yankees in recent years, and as far as 2004 hopes were concerned, the Mariners, with the right moves, looked to have reason for optimism. This didn't really mean much for Bavasi, though, as his every waking moment was spent pondering the eternal question, "What did I do to deserve this?" Ever since, Bill's been toying with the roster, each additional transaction another pinch on the cheek, intended to wake Bavasi from this magnificent dream.
And you may ask yourself
How do I work this?
And you may ask yourself
Where is that large automobile?
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful house!
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful wife!
Astounded to discover that none of this has, in fact, been a dream, Bavasi was left confused and befuddled. Unaware of what he was doing at the time, his attempts to awake himself from the dream left the roster in shambles; certainly salvageable, but in considerably worse shape than when Bill inherited it. Bavasi became indignant with his associates for not preventing him from wrecking the future of the club. "It must be a dream! It must be!" he claimed, unable to believe that Gillick and Pelekoudas would allow him to venture so far astray from the intended path.
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was
At the end of it all, Bavasi had replaced his young, cheap talent by making large commitments to older, more expensive players. Fortunately for him, this had been the status quo in recent years, with few exceptions. Bill hoped that nobody would notice what a mess he had made; heck, the fans might even be excited about all the new names he was going to put on the field in 2004. Feeling quite content with himself and his rational conclusion, Bavasi was left with only one question...
What does the future have in store for this team?
And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right?...Am I wrong?
And you may tell yourself
MY GOD!...WHAT HAVE I DONE?
And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack
And you may find yourself in another part of the world
And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife
And you may ask yourself-Well...How did I get here?
Bavasi had an up-and-down tenure in Anaheim, eventually resigning (under pressure) in 1999 when the team imploded. Despised in Anaheim by players and fans alike (as exhibited by the boos he received when introduced before a game last season), he hopped on I-5 and drove to LA, where he acted as the head of a perennially disappointing farm system. Players who looked so promising in the lower levels would stall against tougher competition. Bavasi found himself in a wholly undesirable situation, having been run off from one city and failing to do his job in another.
Enter Howard Lincoln, professional motivator. Nevermind his past; Bavasi was handed the keys to the Mariners, a profitable and, more importantly, competitive franchise that has been on the verge of serious contention for four years. The team had challenged the Yankees in recent years, and as far as 2004 hopes were concerned, the Mariners, with the right moves, looked to have reason for optimism. This didn't really mean much for Bavasi, though, as his every waking moment was spent pondering the eternal question, "What did I do to deserve this?" Ever since, Bill's been toying with the roster, each additional transaction another pinch on the cheek, intended to wake Bavasi from this magnificent dream.
And you may ask yourself
How do I work this?
And you may ask yourself
Where is that large automobile?
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful house!
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful wife!
Astounded to discover that none of this has, in fact, been a dream, Bavasi was left confused and befuddled. Unaware of what he was doing at the time, his attempts to awake himself from the dream left the roster in shambles; certainly salvageable, but in considerably worse shape than when Bill inherited it. Bavasi became indignant with his associates for not preventing him from wrecking the future of the club. "It must be a dream! It must be!" he claimed, unable to believe that Gillick and Pelekoudas would allow him to venture so far astray from the intended path.
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was
At the end of it all, Bavasi had replaced his young, cheap talent by making large commitments to older, more expensive players. Fortunately for him, this had been the status quo in recent years, with few exceptions. Bill hoped that nobody would notice what a mess he had made; heck, the fans might even be excited about all the new names he was going to put on the field in 2004. Feeling quite content with himself and his rational conclusion, Bavasi was left with only one question...
What does the future have in store for this team?
And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right?...Am I wrong?
And you may tell yourself
MY GOD!...WHAT HAVE I DONE?
Friday, January 09, 2004
It appears as if Vladimir Guerrero will sign either a $65m/5year deal with Baltimore, or a $30m/3year deal (with $10m of incentives) with the Mets.
This irks me.
Update: The Marlins have jumped in with an offer of one year and >$10m.
This irks me.
Update: The Marlins have jumped in with an offer of one year and >$10m.
In case you were wondering what Bill Bavasi saw in Ramon Santiago, I found the answer:
"He can pick it up and throw it," Bavasi said.
This comes as opposed to Carlos Guillen, who is apparently quadriplegic.
"He can pick it up and throw it," Bavasi said.
This comes as opposed to Carlos Guillen, who is apparently quadriplegic.
Thursday, January 08, 2004
A day that began so poorly has ended so well.
I'd like to take this opportunity to say "Suck on that!" to Darcy Tucker.
I'd like to take this opportunity to say "Suck on that!" to Darcy Tucker.
I'll direct you to the blog of a friend of mine, a Texas fan who couldn't be enjoying our offseason any more than he currently is.
Although I don't like the idea of replacing Guillen with an older, otherwise equivalent version of himself, if Rich Aurilia's contract is worth the rumored $3-4m, it's not a bad deal. If he can repeat last year's 25.9 VORP, he'd be worth about $4.5m.
As I was writing this, Carlos Guillen was traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and minor league 3B Juan Gonzalez. We have already discussed Santiago to the fullest extent (that he deserves), but Gonzalez only adds to the pain. As you can see from his résumé, he's not a very good hitter, having posted a .268/.358/.363 line in his brief career (including a .684 2003 OPS).
This is just another inexcusable Bavasi transaction. I'd analyze it further, but it would just wind up sounding the same as all the other columns I've written.
As I was writing this, Carlos Guillen was traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and minor league 3B Juan Gonzalez. We have already discussed Santiago to the fullest extent (that he deserves), but Gonzalez only adds to the pain. As you can see from his résumé, he's not a very good hitter, having posted a .268/.358/.363 line in his brief career (including a .684 2003 OPS).
This is just another inexcusable Bavasi transaction. I'd analyze it further, but it would just wind up sounding the same as all the other columns I've written.
While I don't like the idea of replacing Guillen with an older, otherwise equivalent version of himself, paying the rumored $3-4m for one year of Rich Aurilia isn't a bad deal by any means. If he were to repeat last year's 25.9 VORP, then he'd be worth about $4.5m.
While I don't like the idea of replacing Guillen with an older, otherwise equivalent version of himself, paying the rumored $3-4m for one year of Rich Aurilia isn't a bad deal by any means. If he were to repeat last year's 25.9 VORP, then he'd be worth about $4.5m.
While I don't like the idea of replacing Guillen with an older, otherwise equivalent version of himself, paying the rumored $3-4m for one year of Rich Aurilia isn't a bad deal by any means. If he were to repeat last year's 25.9 VORP, then he'd be worth about $4.5m.
Rich Aurilia is finally ours, according to the AP. I imagine we'll find out who we're getting for Guillen before nightfall.
The P-I says we'd be getting minor leaguers for Guillen, and doesn't mention Santiago.
Given the condition of Detroit's farm system, I think it's safe to assume that we'd still be getting ripped off. Still, getting ripped off is a better option than the coerced anterior copulation Bavasi would be receiving in a deal for Santiago, I guess.
Update: Unfortunately, the Times cites sources as saying Santiago, not minor leaguers, is likely to come in return.
Given the condition of Detroit's farm system, I think it's safe to assume that we'd still be getting ripped off. Still, getting ripped off is a better option than the coerced anterior copulation Bavasi would be receiving in a deal for Santiago, I guess.
Update: Unfortunately, the Times cites sources as saying Santiago, not minor leaguers, is likely to come in return.
Wait for it - wait for it...
All right, you ready for this?
We already knew that Carlos Guillen was as good as gone, and that Rich Aurilia is essentially ours, right?
Well, Detroit news sources are indicating that we might be dealing Guillen for Ramon Santiago (he of the .576 OPS in 444 at bats). That's not it, though; the article also mentions that Santiago is likely to assume Ryan Anderson's spot on the 40-man roster.
This would be more of a symbolic thing than anything else; Anderson isn't likely to have an ML career. But it would be very appropriate, given the way this offseason has gone, for Death Spiral to take the roster spot of Little Unit. Like with Anderson, there remained a tiny glimmer of hope in the back of all our minds that some way, somehow, we could salvage this winter and storm into 2004 as a miraculously competitive team. Some optimism amidst a fury of cyber-vitriol. By kicking Anderson off the roster and handing his spot to Santiago, you remove said optimism. It would be the anvil on top of the coffin, after the nails have already been driven in.
Completely and utterly...fitting.
All right, you ready for this?
We already knew that Carlos Guillen was as good as gone, and that Rich Aurilia is essentially ours, right?
Well, Detroit news sources are indicating that we might be dealing Guillen for Ramon Santiago (he of the .576 OPS in 444 at bats). That's not it, though; the article also mentions that Santiago is likely to assume Ryan Anderson's spot on the 40-man roster.
This would be more of a symbolic thing than anything else; Anderson isn't likely to have an ML career. But it would be very appropriate, given the way this offseason has gone, for Death Spiral to take the roster spot of Little Unit. Like with Anderson, there remained a tiny glimmer of hope in the back of all our minds that some way, somehow, we could salvage this winter and storm into 2004 as a miraculously competitive team. Some optimism amidst a fury of cyber-vitriol. By kicking Anderson off the roster and handing his spot to Santiago, you remove said optimism. It would be the anvil on top of the coffin, after the nails have already been driven in.
Completely and utterly...fitting.
If only we had known at the time.
"During Friday's press conference, Bill Bavasi expressed admiration for Gillick's ability to manipulate a roster, and for San Francisco GM Brian Sabean's ability to recognize veteran players who bring the right competitive spirit to the clubhouse. He also praised Anaheim's 2002 offensive style of putting the ball in play and moving runners around the bases, rather than waiting for the big blow."
That quote says it all.
To quote Derek from the same USS Mariner post:
"Bavasi's a caretaker GM, a safe an inoffensive pick."
If only.
"During Friday's press conference, Bill Bavasi expressed admiration for Gillick's ability to manipulate a roster, and for San Francisco GM Brian Sabean's ability to recognize veteran players who bring the right competitive spirit to the clubhouse. He also praised Anaheim's 2002 offensive style of putting the ball in play and moving runners around the bases, rather than waiting for the big blow."
That quote says it all.
To quote Derek from the same USS Mariner post:
"Bavasi's a caretaker GM, a safe an inoffensive pick."
If only.
Wednesday, January 07, 2004
Jarvis, a 34-year-old who has pitched for seven other teams, has a 5.83 career earned run average and went 4-8 in 16 starts last year with the Padres. With the Mariners' starting rotation full, Jarvis will compete for a job in long relief but brings considerable starting experience. He will make $4.25 million in 2004.
"Last year this club did something I'm absolutely amazed at, (going) wire-to-wire with five starters," Bavasi said. "You can't plan on that. It's important to have a guy like (Jarvis)."
I continue to be awe-struck.
Bavasi thinks Jarvis can be useful. Sounds like a challenge to me.
"Last year this club did something I'm absolutely amazed at, (going) wire-to-wire with five starters," Bavasi said. "You can't plan on that. It's important to have a guy like (Jarvis)."
I continue to be awe-struck.
Bavasi thinks Jarvis can be useful. Sounds like a challenge to me.
Brian Boucher is riding one hell of a streak.
He's got Minnesota next, so if he's going to break the record, he's facing the right team.
He's got Minnesota next, so if he's going to break the record, he's facing the right team.
I realize that it's mostly a local problem, but I know that hundreds of thousands of people would appreciate any help you can provide to resolve this horrifying showdown.
Tell all your friends. We SoCal'ers need all the assistance we can get.
Tell all your friends. We SoCal'ers need all the assistance we can get.
For everyone who criticizes us bloggers for having nothing better to do, at least we aren't doing this.
Sign the petition to make Bavasi go away. It's the least you can do, and every two minutes you spend signing it is two minutes you're impervious to news of another terrible transaction taking place. Ignorance is bliss.
Pass it on.
Pass it on.
Tuesday, January 06, 2004
Great news is flying in from every direction.
Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi said in a statement. "We think this deal gives us flexibility in 2004 and 2005 that we did not have with Jeff on the roster, and helps fill some needs on our big league club."
Note the line where Towers says that none of the guys he dealt have future value, as well.
This entire offseason is one huge synaptic misfire.
Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi said in a statement. "We think this deal gives us flexibility in 2004 and 2005 that we did not have with Jeff on the roster, and helps fill some needs on our big league club."
Note the line where Towers says that none of the guys he dealt have future value, as well.
This entire offseason is one huge synaptic misfire.
That makes ten.
Ottawa hasn't lost since December 13th.
And speaking of the Sens, their official website has a really cool feature. I mean, seriously, how many teams out there have highlights of every goal scored by either team on their site, free to download?
Neat photo here. To quote reader Devin: "Wish that was Jarvis."
Ottawa hasn't lost since December 13th.
And speaking of the Sens, their official website has a really cool feature. I mean, seriously, how many teams out there have highlights of every goal scored by either team on their site, free to download?
Neat photo here. To quote reader Devin: "Wish that was Jarvis."
The complete trade:
Mariners send to San Diego:
Jeff Cirillo, Brian Sweeney, $4.775m payable in 2005
San Diego sends to Mariners:
Wiki Gonzalez, Kevin Jarvis, Dave Hansen, Vince Faison
Mariners send to San Diego:
Jeff Cirillo, Brian Sweeney, $4.775m payable in 2005
San Diego sends to Mariners:
Wiki Gonzalez, Kevin Jarvis, Dave Hansen, Vince Faison
The trade is official. I'm not completely sure about the cash we're sending over, but Vince Faison is ours.
(And there was much rejoicing.)
(And there was much rejoicing.)
March 17th, Mariners practicing before an ST game:
Melvin: "All right, Jamie, you'll be throwing BP. I want Scott to get some work in at third, so try to keep the ball in against righties. Raul, you're up first."
Ibanez and Moyer: "Sure thing, coach!"
*whiff*
*whiff*
*pop up*
*whiff*
Melvin: "All right, now let's try a hitter who isn't a complete retard. John, get in there."
Olerud: "Sure thing, coach!"
*whiff*
*pop up*
*pop up*
Melvin: "All right, this isn't working. Do we have anyone who can lay a bunt down the third baseline?"
Suzuki: "Where I come from, bunting is a sin."
Melvin: "Where's Big Ben? I remember he had that bunt off Schilling a few years ago."
Howard Lincoln: "He's been exiled to Milwaukee. Didn't like the clubhouse deli bar."
Melvin: "Raul, get back in there, drop us down a few bunts and get Scott some work."
Ibanez: "Sure thing, coach!"
*whiff*
*whiff*
*pop up*
*whiff*
Melvin: "Good going, Raul. Let's all have fun out there today."
Players: "Sure thing, coach!"
Martinez: "My knee's a little sore. I think I'm taking today off."
Lincoln: "That's it, you're gone."
Melvin: "All right, Jamie, you'll be throwing BP. I want Scott to get some work in at third, so try to keep the ball in against righties. Raul, you're up first."
Ibanez and Moyer: "Sure thing, coach!"
*whiff*
*whiff*
*pop up*
*whiff*
Melvin: "All right, now let's try a hitter who isn't a complete retard. John, get in there."
Olerud: "Sure thing, coach!"
*whiff*
*pop up*
*pop up*
Melvin: "All right, this isn't working. Do we have anyone who can lay a bunt down the third baseline?"
Suzuki: "Where I come from, bunting is a sin."
Melvin: "Where's Big Ben? I remember he had that bunt off Schilling a few years ago."
Howard Lincoln: "He's been exiled to Milwaukee. Didn't like the clubhouse deli bar."
Melvin: "Raul, get back in there, drop us down a few bunts and get Scott some work."
Ibanez: "Sure thing, coach!"
*whiff*
*whiff*
*pop up*
*whiff*
Melvin: "Good going, Raul. Let's all have fun out there today."
Players: "Sure thing, coach!"
Martinez: "My knee's a little sore. I think I'm taking today off."
Lincoln: "That's it, you're gone."
Terrific news tonight.
We could be sending $8m to San Diego for the privilege of taking Cirillo off our hands, and we're also in contact with Marvin Benard.
Here is the relevant contract information:
Jeff Cirillo:
2004: $6.725M
2005: $7.025M
2006: Team option $7.625M or $1.25M buyout
Kevin Jarvis:
2004: $4.25M
2005: Team option $5.25M or $0.5M buyout
Wiki Gonzalez:
$3.7M over the next two years
Dave Hansen = league minimum.
Without throwing any cash to San Diego, we'd be saving $6.25m (assuming both Cirillo and Jarvis are bought out). However, we're apparently going to send a sum somewhere around $8m to the Padres, meaning that we're actually losing both money and roster spots. I can only hope that all three of the incoming players get cut, but even if that's the case, why not just cut Cirillo and make things that much easier?
And explain something else: why would Marvin Benard have to be an NRI when Quinton McCracken is apparently worthy of being dealt for?
We could be sending $8m to San Diego for the privilege of taking Cirillo off our hands, and we're also in contact with Marvin Benard.
Here is the relevant contract information:
Jeff Cirillo:
2004: $6.725M
2005: $7.025M
2006: Team option $7.625M or $1.25M buyout
Kevin Jarvis:
2004: $4.25M
2005: Team option $5.25M or $0.5M buyout
Wiki Gonzalez:
$3.7M over the next two years
Dave Hansen = league minimum.
Without throwing any cash to San Diego, we'd be saving $6.25m (assuming both Cirillo and Jarvis are bought out). However, we're apparently going to send a sum somewhere around $8m to the Padres, meaning that we're actually losing both money and roster spots. I can only hope that all three of the incoming players get cut, but even if that's the case, why not just cut Cirillo and make things that much easier?
And explain something else: why would Marvin Benard have to be an NRI when Quinton McCracken is apparently worthy of being dealt for?
Jeff Cirillo is a Padre.
So is Brian Sweeney.
And a lot of cash.
Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen, and Kevin Jarvis are Mariners.
The cash is supposedly enough to even out the salaries.
I don't have anything to say.
So is Brian Sweeney.
And a lot of cash.
Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen, and Kevin Jarvis are Mariners.
The cash is supposedly enough to even out the salaries.
I don't have anything to say.
Monday, January 05, 2004
SO, TO RECAP...
In order to make all this more reader-friendly, I'll organize my calculated values into one post.
CATCHER: 3.3 VORP/million
FIRST BASE: 5.4
SECOND BASE: 7.8
SHORTSTOP: 5.8
THIRD BASE: 5.6
CORNER OUTFIELD: 4.9
CENTER FIELD: 5.8
DESIGNATED HITTER: 8.9
STARTING PITCHER: 10.8
I'll have the spreadsheet I used to do all this online as soon as I'm able to re-create all the data I deleted and get in touch with Steve about getting the file online. In the meantime, perform your own contract evaluations to your liking. Here, I'll start us off:
Miguel Tejada
2001: 45.9
2002: 67.5
2003: 50.4
2/3/5 weighted 2004 VORP projection: 54.6.
Average shortstop VORP/million for players who have received a non-arby-influenced contract: 5.8
Suggested contract for Tejada: $9.4m per year
Enjoy!
P.S.
I am aware that, according to this system, no 2003 pitcher deserved a contract worth more than $6.9m per year. This has a lot to do with the fact that low-price pitchers like Esteban Loaiza, Jose Lima, and Darren Oliver put up decent-to-terrific stats with sub-$1m salaries. These deals tend to skew the numbers; If you exclude these three pitchers, the average starting pitcher VORP/million declines to 5.83, a much more reasonable number.
P.P.S.
Since I know you're curious, this system suggests $4.1m a year for Ibanez and $2.48m for Spiezio. Given that this calculation generally undervalues age-related decline, you can do your own adjustment: decrease each player's VORP by 5% for each year they're 30+ years old. If you do this, then it spits out a $3.85m value for Ibanez and $2.41m for Spiezio. It also says that Quinton McCracken should owe us about $5m for the privilege of being on the roster. Sure, it's probably just an error with negative VORP values, but I think it's justified in this case.
In order to make all this more reader-friendly, I'll organize my calculated values into one post.
CATCHER: 3.3 VORP/million
FIRST BASE: 5.4
SECOND BASE: 7.8
SHORTSTOP: 5.8
THIRD BASE: 5.6
CORNER OUTFIELD: 4.9
CENTER FIELD: 5.8
DESIGNATED HITTER: 8.9
STARTING PITCHER: 10.8
I'll have the spreadsheet I used to do all this online as soon as I'm able to re-create all the data I deleted and get in touch with Steve about getting the file online. In the meantime, perform your own contract evaluations to your liking. Here, I'll start us off:
Miguel Tejada
2001: 45.9
2002: 67.5
2003: 50.4
2/3/5 weighted 2004 VORP projection: 54.6.
Average shortstop VORP/million for players who have received a non-arby-influenced contract: 5.8
Suggested contract for Tejada: $9.4m per year
Enjoy!
P.S.
I am aware that, according to this system, no 2003 pitcher deserved a contract worth more than $6.9m per year. This has a lot to do with the fact that low-price pitchers like Esteban Loaiza, Jose Lima, and Darren Oliver put up decent-to-terrific stats with sub-$1m salaries. These deals tend to skew the numbers; If you exclude these three pitchers, the average starting pitcher VORP/million declines to 5.83, a much more reasonable number.
P.P.S.
Since I know you're curious, this system suggests $4.1m a year for Ibanez and $2.48m for Spiezio. Given that this calculation generally undervalues age-related decline, you can do your own adjustment: decrease each player's VORP by 5% for each year they're 30+ years old. If you do this, then it spits out a $3.85m value for Ibanez and $2.41m for Spiezio. It also says that Quinton McCracken should owe us about $5m for the privilege of being on the roster. Sure, it's probably just an error with negative VORP values, but I think it's justified in this case.
Sunday, January 04, 2004
Today's project: the Fair Market Value Calculator for players due new contracts.
I'm going to use something I've used before, and something that I'm sure people have seen elsewhere: VORP per million dollar spent. For example, Bobby Abreu's 2003 VORP was 39.1, and he was paid $8.5m (excluding his bonus). Thus, the Phillies "got" 4.6 VORP points from Abreu per million dollars they spent on him.
I'm going to break up the rest of this column (or series of columns) by position. I'll explain what I think needs to be explained in my first section. So, without further ado...
CATCHER
Brad Ausmus: -17.9 VORP, $5.5m, -3.3 VORP/million
Brook Fordyce: 4.4 VORP, $3.5m, 1.3 VORP/million
Charles Johnson: -3.2 VORP, $7m, -0.5 VORP/million
Jason Kendall: 45.5 VORP, $8m, 5.7 VORP/million
Mike Lieberthal: 36.4 VORP, $7.25m, 5.0 VORP/million
Javy Lopez: 75.9 VORP, $7m, 10.8 VORP/million
Brent Mayne: -5.1 VORP, $2.75m, -1.9 VORP/million
Damian Miller: 1.8 VORP, $2.7m, 0.7 VORP/million
Mike Piazza (averaged 2002/2003 stats): 39.2 VORP, $12m, 3.3 VORP/million
Jorge Posada: 56.5 VORP, $8m, 7.1 VORP/million
Ivan Rodriguez: 46.3 VORP, $10m (includes deferred money), 4.6 VORP/million
Benito Santiago: 19.9 VORP, $1.775m, 11.2 VORP/million
Jason Varitek: 33.5 VORP, $4.7m, 7.1 VORP/million
Dan Wilson: -4.0 VORP, $3.5m, -1.1 VORP/million
Gregg Zaun: 0.2 VORP, $1.2m, 0.2 VORP/million
In all, these catchers contributed 50.2 VORP points per $15m ($1m each). That means that they contributed an average of 3.3 VORP points per $1m.
So let's consider what this means. Say you're a team who wants to sign Pudge Rodriguez, but doesn't know how much money to give him. In 2003, he had a VORP of 46.3, 39.6 in 2002, and 44.2 in 2001. Weighing these numbers using the 2/3/5 method, we get a projected 2004 VORP of 43.9 (we'll ignore age-related decline for now, as it only makes this more complex).
Recall that catchers who have signed multiyear contracts contributed an average of 3.3 VORP per $1m in 2003. Using this number, we infer that Ivan Rodriguez, for 2004, deserves a $13.3m contract, given his peer group.
That amount seems high, and it probably is; Ivan Rodriguez has missed an average of 41 games per year since 2001, and as a 32 year old catcher, it will be difficult for him to come close to repeating last year's performance. Catchers are more difficult than other positions in this respect, because a typical starting catcher won't play as often as a typical starting shortstop or left fielder.
I wouldn't want to give Pudge $13m to play for the Mariners in 2004. Given his age and injury history, I'd probably have to settle somewhere around $10m. Even so, this VORP/million calculation provides a ballpark estimate that should be more accurate with different positions.
1b, 2b, 3b, ss, lf, cf, rf, sp, and possibly dh will be covered later tonight, assuming I have enough time to get around to it.
I'm going to use something I've used before, and something that I'm sure people have seen elsewhere: VORP per million dollar spent. For example, Bobby Abreu's 2003 VORP was 39.1, and he was paid $8.5m (excluding his bonus). Thus, the Phillies "got" 4.6 VORP points from Abreu per million dollars they spent on him.
I'm going to break up the rest of this column (or series of columns) by position. I'll explain what I think needs to be explained in my first section. So, without further ado...
CATCHER
Brad Ausmus: -17.9 VORP, $5.5m, -3.3 VORP/million
Brook Fordyce: 4.4 VORP, $3.5m, 1.3 VORP/million
Charles Johnson: -3.2 VORP, $7m, -0.5 VORP/million
Jason Kendall: 45.5 VORP, $8m, 5.7 VORP/million
Mike Lieberthal: 36.4 VORP, $7.25m, 5.0 VORP/million
Javy Lopez: 75.9 VORP, $7m, 10.8 VORP/million
Brent Mayne: -5.1 VORP, $2.75m, -1.9 VORP/million
Damian Miller: 1.8 VORP, $2.7m, 0.7 VORP/million
Mike Piazza (averaged 2002/2003 stats): 39.2 VORP, $12m, 3.3 VORP/million
Jorge Posada: 56.5 VORP, $8m, 7.1 VORP/million
Ivan Rodriguez: 46.3 VORP, $10m (includes deferred money), 4.6 VORP/million
Benito Santiago: 19.9 VORP, $1.775m, 11.2 VORP/million
Jason Varitek: 33.5 VORP, $4.7m, 7.1 VORP/million
Dan Wilson: -4.0 VORP, $3.5m, -1.1 VORP/million
Gregg Zaun: 0.2 VORP, $1.2m, 0.2 VORP/million
In all, these catchers contributed 50.2 VORP points per $15m ($1m each). That means that they contributed an average of 3.3 VORP points per $1m.
So let's consider what this means. Say you're a team who wants to sign Pudge Rodriguez, but doesn't know how much money to give him. In 2003, he had a VORP of 46.3, 39.6 in 2002, and 44.2 in 2001. Weighing these numbers using the 2/3/5 method, we get a projected 2004 VORP of 43.9 (we'll ignore age-related decline for now, as it only makes this more complex).
Recall that catchers who have signed multiyear contracts contributed an average of 3.3 VORP per $1m in 2003. Using this number, we infer that Ivan Rodriguez, for 2004, deserves a $13.3m contract, given his peer group.
That amount seems high, and it probably is; Ivan Rodriguez has missed an average of 41 games per year since 2001, and as a 32 year old catcher, it will be difficult for him to come close to repeating last year's performance. Catchers are more difficult than other positions in this respect, because a typical starting catcher won't play as often as a typical starting shortstop or left fielder.
I wouldn't want to give Pudge $13m to play for the Mariners in 2004. Given his age and injury history, I'd probably have to settle somewhere around $10m. Even so, this VORP/million calculation provides a ballpark estimate that should be more accurate with different positions.
1b, 2b, 3b, ss, lf, cf, rf, sp, and possibly dh will be covered later tonight, assuming I have enough time to get around to it.
It's about damn time the Senators hit their stride, and according to Eric Lindros, nobody will be able to stop them now.
Shawn McEachern agrees.
So does Sergei Gonchar.
Oleg Kvasha would say the same thing, too, if he could speak anymore.
I also thought I'd take this opportunity to point out that Zdeno Chara is a big dude. And also that Toronto sucks.
Shawn McEachern agrees.
So does Sergei Gonchar.
Oleg Kvasha would say the same thing, too, if he could speak anymore.
I also thought I'd take this opportunity to point out that Zdeno Chara is a big dude. And also that Toronto sucks.
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