Oops.
``It wasn't the start I was looking for, that's for sure,'' said Jagr, acquired from Washington in a long-rumored deal completed Friday.
...
``That was awful,'' Rangers center Eric Lindros said. ``We were outskated, we didn't think -- we were awful.''
...
``Describe it? I don't think it's possible,'' Rangers coach and general manager Glen Sather said. ``It's one of the worst beatings I've taken in my career. It seemed like everyone stood around and was waiting for Jagr to win it for us.''
The Senators came out flying tonight, and didn't stop until the striped men made them. Chris Phillips was on the ice for five of Ottawa's goals. It was the best game of the year for the home team and the worst in eleven years for the roadies, who share a remarkable number of similarities with the recent New York Mets. The Rangers and their coach aren't seeing eye-to-eye, which represents a unique problem, given that coach Sather is also the team's general manager. The Jagr acquisition was a last-ditch effort by Sather to gain the respect of both the team and its fans, and losing by eight goals in the superstar's debut is just about as bad an outcome as you could imagine. The chants of "FIRE SATHER!" ringing down from the Garden's seats will be getting louder until he's shown the door, at which point the Rangers may begin the long hike back to respectability.
As far as Ottawa is concerned, this was terrific. The Thursday game against Pittsburgh was disappointing, despite the win, and an eight-goal victory over a confidence-booster of an organization is a great way to go into a three-day break. Next Saturday, the Senators will be taking on Toronto in a game with definite division implications. An Ottawa win could propel them into first place for the rest of the season, in good shape to take the President's Trophy for the second straight year.
To quote Brian Smolinski: "I think we just played our positions, and maybe we took the wind out of their sails a little bit."
I think a 9-1 loss does more than just take the wind out of New York's sails. It's the low point of the entire year for the Rangers, and I'm proud to say that it came at the hands of the Senators.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
The vultures are circling.
TRADE TALK: Recently, the Jays offered highly regarded catcher Kevin Cash and outfielder JaysonWerth, a former No. 1 pick of the Baltimore Orioles, to the Seattle Mariners for pitcher Rafael Soriano.
Now, don't get me wrong; Kevin Cash is a good prospect. He plays terrific defense, and flashes good pop for a catcher (0.43 XBH/H, 0.187 isoSLG). His plate discipline has gotten worse as he's risen through the levels, though, to the point at which he struck out nearly three times as often as he walked in AAA. All in all, the .262/.343/.449 line he's put up in the minors is good, but not great, and at 26 years old he's not likely to put up the kind of power spike that would propell him into the upper ranks of ML catchers. He'd represent an improvement over our two clowns, but not a significant one.
Jayson Werth is a classic "tweener", not hitting enough to be a corner outfielder but without the defensive ability to play in center. He's put up translated EqA's of .252 and .230 the last two seasons, well below what you'd expect from an "immediate impact" kind of player, but his speed and gap power are probably precisely what the Mariners are looking for in a young outfielder.
Rafael Soriano, as we all know, is a badass.
I get very, very worried when JP Ricciardi dials up ol' BB, because I'm afraid Bavasi will jump at offers like these. Werth is a quick kid who can hit a double every so often, and Cash has a popular name amongst the scouts. Nothing good can come of this.
TRADE TALK: Recently, the Jays offered highly regarded catcher Kevin Cash and outfielder JaysonWerth, a former No. 1 pick of the Baltimore Orioles, to the Seattle Mariners for pitcher Rafael Soriano.
Now, don't get me wrong; Kevin Cash is a good prospect. He plays terrific defense, and flashes good pop for a catcher (0.43 XBH/H, 0.187 isoSLG). His plate discipline has gotten worse as he's risen through the levels, though, to the point at which he struck out nearly three times as often as he walked in AAA. All in all, the .262/.343/.449 line he's put up in the minors is good, but not great, and at 26 years old he's not likely to put up the kind of power spike that would propell him into the upper ranks of ML catchers. He'd represent an improvement over our two clowns, but not a significant one.
Jayson Werth is a classic "tweener", not hitting enough to be a corner outfielder but without the defensive ability to play in center. He's put up translated EqA's of .252 and .230 the last two seasons, well below what you'd expect from an "immediate impact" kind of player, but his speed and gap power are probably precisely what the Mariners are looking for in a young outfielder.
Rafael Soriano, as we all know, is a badass.
I get very, very worried when JP Ricciardi dials up ol' BB, because I'm afraid Bavasi will jump at offers like these. Werth is a quick kid who can hit a double every so often, and Cash has a popular name amongst the scouts. Nothing good can come of this.
Our old friend is at it again.
Gerry Fraley represents the polar opposite of Seattle beat writers (until recently, anyway), in that he stages a relentless assault on Texas ownership and management. For the sake of brevity, I'll cut this short: the next time Bob Finnigan publishes some hackneyed organizational fluff, just remember than there are worse things than sanguine ardor, and that irrational optimism is always better than misallocated criticism.
Gerry Fraley represents the polar opposite of Seattle beat writers (until recently, anyway), in that he stages a relentless assault on Texas ownership and management. For the sake of brevity, I'll cut this short: the next time Bob Finnigan publishes some hackneyed organizational fluff, just remember than there are worse things than sanguine ardor, and that irrational optimism is always better than misallocated criticism.
Friday, January 23, 2004
There's a Detroit radio report, citing Justin Spiro, claiming that Ivan Rodriguez is going to be a Mariner. This comes on the heels of a much more legitimate report that Scott Boras gave a counter-offer to Detroit today, so I think I know which one to believe.
I'm probably a stronger advocate for signing Pudge than the majority of Mariners fans, which has a lot to do with my creation from two weeks ago. He represents a gigantic risk over the course of a long-term deal, but at two years and $11-12m per, he would also instantly transform our lineup into one of the better ones in the American League while eliminating the one true black hole. The worst-case scenario is that he injures himself and misses 70 games, but this is the kind of risk you take when you're a borderline contender with money to spend.
Hopefully Boras will delay the Rodriguez - Detroit situation until we have Sasaki's deal all cleared up and can jump into negotiations. I don't expect anything, but at this point, there are worse things than irrational hope.
I'm probably a stronger advocate for signing Pudge than the majority of Mariners fans, which has a lot to do with my creation from two weeks ago. He represents a gigantic risk over the course of a long-term deal, but at two years and $11-12m per, he would also instantly transform our lineup into one of the better ones in the American League while eliminating the one true black hole. The worst-case scenario is that he injures himself and misses 70 games, but this is the kind of risk you take when you're a borderline contender with money to spend.
Hopefully Boras will delay the Rodriguez - Detroit situation until we have Sasaki's deal all cleared up and can jump into negotiations. I don't expect anything, but at this point, there are worse things than irrational hope.
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Members of the Mariners' Blogosphere should really join the sim baseball league. It's a ridiculously delightful avocation (it's fun).
At some point this weekend, I intend to write about baseball. Seriously.
At some point this weekend, I intend to write about baseball. Seriously.
It wasn't pretty, but it's still two points. For some reason, the Penguins give Ottawa fits, so it's nice to come out of the game with a win. The Senators are now one point behind Toronto, who has one game in hand.
I'm not much of a NCAA basketball fan, but I know an amazing occurrence when I see it.
UNC stormed out to a 24-point first half lead, thanks mostly to a 21-0 run.
They didn't hit a basket in OT until there were 25 seconds left.
What a game.
UNC stormed out to a 24-point first half lead, thanks mostly to a 21-0 run.
They didn't hit a basket in OT until there were 25 seconds left.
What a game.
Maels Rodriguez didn't break 90 at his workout, but assures us that his arm is fine.
Gee, he's as good as ours.
Gee, he's as good as ours.
DMZ and Keith Woolner performed a series of ridiculous calculations and found out that, pound for pound, Ichiro is the most efficient player in baseball.
Omar Infante, on the other hand, was the biggest waste of skin last season (Ramon Santiago was second-worst).
Omar Infante, on the other hand, was the biggest waste of skin last season (Ramon Santiago was second-worst).
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Russ Branyan signed a minor league deal with Atlanta today, with an invitation to spring training. Oh, well.
In other news, the Expos got Brad Cresse from Arizona for a PTBNL. Cresse's star has fallen like you wouldn't believe in the last few years, going from one of the top catching prospects in baseball at the end of 2001 to AAA fodder two years later. While his defense has improved, his offense took a precipitous decline, which likely has something to do with his stagnant plate discipline.
Year BB/K PA/BB PA/K
2000: 0.37 10.35 3.84
2001: 0.38 10.75 4.08
2002: 0.18 19.30 3.45
2003: 0.20 18.00 3.64
Cresse has cut his walk rate in half while striking out just as often. As a result, he's struggled against better competition, and may no longer be considered a "catcher of the future." By acquiring him for a throwaway prospect, Montreal has given Edmonton Trappers' manager Dave Huppert a project who could become quite rewarding. Cresse isn't in the right organization to see his plate discipline improve, though, so it looks like this may be the end.
In other news, the Expos got Brad Cresse from Arizona for a PTBNL. Cresse's star has fallen like you wouldn't believe in the last few years, going from one of the top catching prospects in baseball at the end of 2001 to AAA fodder two years later. While his defense has improved, his offense took a precipitous decline, which likely has something to do with his stagnant plate discipline.
Year BB/K PA/BB PA/K
2000: 0.37 10.35 3.84
2001: 0.38 10.75 4.08
2002: 0.18 19.30 3.45
2003: 0.20 18.00 3.64
Cresse has cut his walk rate in half while striking out just as often. As a result, he's struggled against better competition, and may no longer be considered a "catcher of the future." By acquiring him for a throwaway prospect, Montreal has given Edmonton Trappers' manager Dave Huppert a project who could become quite rewarding. Cresse isn't in the right organization to see his plate discipline improve, though, so it looks like this may be the end.
I was directed by a column at BP to a James Click article from last October. The purpose of the piece was to establish a team defensive metric independent from park factors and pitching staffs. The end result of Click's column was a new statistic, entited Team Adjusted Defense (TAD). There are three components of TAD:
Defensive Efficiency - a raw measure of how many balls in play are turned into outs by the defense.
PADE - a statistic measuring how much or how little a team's defense benefited from the ballparks in which it played (over a full season, rather than just the 81-game home schedule), founded on the home_Def_eff/road_Def_eff ratio for each team.
PIDE - a metric that measures how much or how little a team's defense benefited from its pitching staff, founded on the cumulative expected IPAvg (batting average on balls in play) of the staff.
TAD lists Seattle as the seventh-worst defense in the majors leagues last year, ahead of Boston, Colorado, Texas, Milwaukee, NYY, and Baltimore. Whether or not you accept this as fact is up to you, but the metric certainly highlights some concerns. How much does our team defense benefit from Safeco? The defense turned 3.7% more balls in play into outs at home than on the road last season, a significant percentage. What's more, though, is how much do we benefit from the pitching staff?
Supporters of Voros McCracken's DIPS theory will answer with a resounding "no", but work by Keith Woolner and Tom Tippett has shown that pitchers do maintain some degree of control over balls in play allowed. The Mariners' collective pitching staff has had good fortune turning BIP into outs throughout their careers; more than any other staff in the majors, according to tExIPAvg (team expected batting average against on balls in play, centered around 1.000).
Where do you go from here? The answer, as always, is to further improve defensive statistics in order to isolate the team defense ability from park factors and the pitching staff. TAD is the first statistic - of which I am aware - to claim to do so, and the results aren't real pretty to Seattle fans.
Defensive Efficiency - a raw measure of how many balls in play are turned into outs by the defense.
PADE - a statistic measuring how much or how little a team's defense benefited from the ballparks in which it played (over a full season, rather than just the 81-game home schedule), founded on the home_Def_eff/road_Def_eff ratio for each team.
PIDE - a metric that measures how much or how little a team's defense benefited from its pitching staff, founded on the cumulative expected IPAvg (batting average on balls in play) of the staff.
TAD lists Seattle as the seventh-worst defense in the majors leagues last year, ahead of Boston, Colorado, Texas, Milwaukee, NYY, and Baltimore. Whether or not you accept this as fact is up to you, but the metric certainly highlights some concerns. How much does our team defense benefit from Safeco? The defense turned 3.7% more balls in play into outs at home than on the road last season, a significant percentage. What's more, though, is how much do we benefit from the pitching staff?
Supporters of Voros McCracken's DIPS theory will answer with a resounding "no", but work by Keith Woolner and Tom Tippett has shown that pitchers do maintain some degree of control over balls in play allowed. The Mariners' collective pitching staff has had good fortune turning BIP into outs throughout their careers; more than any other staff in the majors, according to tExIPAvg (team expected batting average against on balls in play, centered around 1.000).
Where do you go from here? The answer, as always, is to further improve defensive statistics in order to isolate the team defense ability from park factors and the pitching staff. TAD is the first statistic - of which I am aware - to claim to do so, and the results aren't real pretty to Seattle fans.
Will Carroll's UTK column reports that, according to some organizational scounts, Maels Rodriguez is reaching the low-90s (rather than the oft-reported triple-digit figure). That's bad, but may be enough to scare off the big guns, leaving Seattle - for better or worse - as the primary suitors.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
The Ottawa Senators beat Jamie Storr and the Hurricanes 3-1 tonight, propelling them into first place in the East for about 17 minutes (at which point Toronto collected its 60th and 61st points in a win over NYI).
Yay.
Yay.
Here's another top-100 prospects list.
Nageotte at #26, Blackley #36, Snelling #42, Lopez #43, Choo #75, and Johnson #97. Felix Hernandez gets a mention at the bottom.
Nageotte at #26, Blackley #36, Snelling #42, Lopez #43, Choo #75, and Johnson #97. Felix Hernandez gets a mention at the bottom.
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