For those of you who are mourning the loss of Ryan Ketchner, there remains the consolation that his older, slightly less-handicapped equivalent is still in our organization.
Bott's another finesse lefty who breezed through high-A ball last year in the same rotation as Ketchner, posting eerily similar peripherals. Troy Cate wasn't far behind, either.
Saturday, April 03, 2004
Jolbert Cabrera, if nothing else, is the textbook definition of a utility player. Just last year he played at least nine innings at seven different positions (all except catcher and pitcher), with varying degrees of success. It looks like, with Bloomquist primed to take over third base early in the year, the Mariners wanted someone experienced to take over Wee Willie's bench role as the ultra-sub. Another way to read into this is that Seattle fears Spiezio's injury is worse than originally thought, and that Bloomquist could be stationed at the hot corner for more than a month or two. Regardless, here's what we know about Cabrera:
Here's how it shakes down: if the Mariners get the 2003 Jolbert Cabrera, then they swung a decent deal and brought in a valuable bench player. If the Mariners got the pre-2003 Jolbert Cabrera, then they just gave away a B-grade pitching prospect and an ML-ready righty reliever for free. Cabrera was indeed quite strong with the bat last year, putting up a .282/.332/.438 line in an extreme pitcher's park. However, he doesn't draw walks and doesn't hit for much power, meaning his value is closely dependent on his batting average (a bad strategy). Check out his track record and you'll see that he needs to hit around .300 to have value as a 250-300 AB player.
My first instinct? I don't like it. For all of Cabrera's improvement last year, it's just one season (in a non-peak year), and he's got a PECOTA projection of .254/.317/.370. He seems to be a good example of Backup Catcher Syndrome, where a weak batter puts up an impressive offensive line in 300 at bats that ensures his employment for the next ten years. There's not much in his career suggesting that last year was anything but an abnormality, and I think Cabrera will be lucky to wind up with a .700 OPS in 2004.
So, what of the guys we gave away? Aaron Looper is a 27 year old right-handed reliever with gigantic ears who has managed a composite 2.66 ERA in AA/AAA. He's also put up the following peripherals:
7.59 K/9
3.04 BB/9
0.76 HR/9
8.02 H/9
Even allowing for having played in two big parks, those are good numbers, worthy of a roster spot near the back of a bullpen. While he still struggles with lefties, he held right-handed batters to a .189 batting average last year in Tacoma, striking out nearly five righties for each walk. You'd like to see him improve against lefty batters, and it would be nice if he could push that BB/9 just under 3, but he's ready to be a middle reliever right now, and could put up splits reminiscent of Steve Reed in a few years if given the chance.
Ryan Ketchner, as you may or may not know, is well-known for being partially deaf. He's also a 21 year old (22 in two weeks) southpaw who posted amazing peripherals in high-A last year. Take a look at this chart:
That's no mistake; Ketchner put up a K/BB near 5.00 last year while limiting home runs against tougher competition. Now, impressive stat lines aside, there have been questions about how much success he'll have in the higher levels, because he has mediocre velocity with a very limited repertoire. Still, he looks to be on a level below Rett Johnson but ahead of Craig Anderson, and these are the kinds of guys you like to have sitting around the upper minors in case someone in the ML rotation goes down. I have no problem with trading these kinds of players should the right opportunity arise, but Jolbert Cabrera has never been the answer to anybody's problems, and lesser-known equivalents can be found on the waiver wire (see Marco Scutaro, quite frequently). Ketchner's never going to blow anybody away, and he won't suddenly turn into a staff ace, but he has a ceiling as an innings-eating #3, a Mark Buehrle without the deceiving early career success.
After breaking it down, I still don't like the trade. It's nothing that's going to come back to hurt us in the future (that is, unless we run into Ketchner in a few years while we're still struggling with the Mark Hendrickson's of the world), but it rids our system of two trade commodities that could have brought something more valuable back in return. Bavasi panicked and DePodesta took advantage.
This move goes along with BB's entire offseason: a bunch of ill-advised moves, none of which will single-handedly burn us but will, as a collective, act as a significant detriment to the team. I don't think I want to know how much we'd give up for a legitimate slugger come deadline time.
- Very versatile player who is athletic enough to hold his own in center field and at short
- had a career-best offensive season last year in Dodger Stadium at the age of 30
- lackluster plate discipline
- marginal power; career .100 ISO (SLG - BA)
Here's how it shakes down: if the Mariners get the 2003 Jolbert Cabrera, then they swung a decent deal and brought in a valuable bench player. If the Mariners got the pre-2003 Jolbert Cabrera, then they just gave away a B-grade pitching prospect and an ML-ready righty reliever for free. Cabrera was indeed quite strong with the bat last year, putting up a .282/.332/.438 line in an extreme pitcher's park. However, he doesn't draw walks and doesn't hit for much power, meaning his value is closely dependent on his batting average (a bad strategy). Check out his track record and you'll see that he needs to hit around .300 to have value as a 250-300 AB player.
My first instinct? I don't like it. For all of Cabrera's improvement last year, it's just one season (in a non-peak year), and he's got a PECOTA projection of .254/.317/.370. He seems to be a good example of Backup Catcher Syndrome, where a weak batter puts up an impressive offensive line in 300 at bats that ensures his employment for the next ten years. There's not much in his career suggesting that last year was anything but an abnormality, and I think Cabrera will be lucky to wind up with a .700 OPS in 2004.
So, what of the guys we gave away? Aaron Looper is a 27 year old right-handed reliever with gigantic ears who has managed a composite 2.66 ERA in AA/AAA. He's also put up the following peripherals:
7.59 K/9
3.04 BB/9
0.76 HR/9
8.02 H/9
Even allowing for having played in two big parks, those are good numbers, worthy of a roster spot near the back of a bullpen. While he still struggles with lefties, he held right-handed batters to a .189 batting average last year in Tacoma, striking out nearly five righties for each walk. You'd like to see him improve against lefty batters, and it would be nice if he could push that BB/9 just under 3, but he's ready to be a middle reliever right now, and could put up splits reminiscent of Steve Reed in a few years if given the chance.
Ryan Ketchner, as you may or may not know, is well-known for being partially deaf. He's also a 21 year old (22 in two weeks) southpaw who posted amazing peripherals in high-A last year. Take a look at this chart:
| Year | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 | ERA |
| 2001 | 9.98 | 3.06 | N/A | 6.54 | 2.92 |
| 2002 | 9.57 | 3.16 | 0.24 | 6.08 | 2.59 |
| 2003 | 9.13 | 1.90 | 0.57 | 7.64 | 3.45 |
That's no mistake; Ketchner put up a K/BB near 5.00 last year while limiting home runs against tougher competition. Now, impressive stat lines aside, there have been questions about how much success he'll have in the higher levels, because he has mediocre velocity with a very limited repertoire. Still, he looks to be on a level below Rett Johnson but ahead of Craig Anderson, and these are the kinds of guys you like to have sitting around the upper minors in case someone in the ML rotation goes down. I have no problem with trading these kinds of players should the right opportunity arise, but Jolbert Cabrera has never been the answer to anybody's problems, and lesser-known equivalents can be found on the waiver wire (see Marco Scutaro, quite frequently). Ketchner's never going to blow anybody away, and he won't suddenly turn into a staff ace, but he has a ceiling as an innings-eating #3, a Mark Buehrle without the deceiving early career success.
After breaking it down, I still don't like the trade. It's nothing that's going to come back to hurt us in the future (that is, unless we run into Ketchner in a few years while we're still struggling with the Mark Hendrickson's of the world), but it rids our system of two trade commodities that could have brought something more valuable back in return. Bavasi panicked and DePodesta took advantage.
This move goes along with BB's entire offseason: a bunch of ill-advised moves, none of which will single-handedly burn us but will, as a collective, act as a significant detriment to the team. I don't think I want to know how much we'd give up for a legitimate slugger come deadline time.
More trade news:
The Mets are now freed of their Roger Cedeno problem, dealing him for Wilson Delgado and Chris Widger.
This also frees Tony La Russa of his third catcher problem. Potentially.
The Mets are now freed of their Roger Cedeno problem, dealing him for Wilson Delgado and Chris Widger.
This also frees Tony La Russa of his third catcher problem. Potentially.
Trade news:
The Rangers sent Einar Diaz, Justin Echols, and cash to Montreal for Josh McKinley and Chris Young.
Gerald Laird will take over the starting catcher duties in Arlington (as it should be).
McKinley is a miscellaneous infielder who suddenly learned how to hit for power last year, and Young is a huge (6'10, 258) right-hander with good command but disappointing velocity (87-89) for a pitcher of his size. Neither are particularly strong prospects, but losing Diaz is its own reward.
The Rangers sent Einar Diaz, Justin Echols, and cash to Montreal for Josh McKinley and Chris Young.
Gerald Laird will take over the starting catcher duties in Arlington (as it should be).
McKinley is a miscellaneous infielder who suddenly learned how to hit for power last year, and Young is a huge (6'10, 258) right-hander with good command but disappointing velocity (87-89) for a pitcher of his size. Neither are particularly strong prospects, but losing Diaz is its own reward.
DiamondMind projections for the season:
Your Seattle Mariners:
87-75. They won the division about 1/4th of the time, and took the wild card once every 40 projections. The system has our offense dropping off a slight amount, while our pitching surrenders an average of 83 more runs than it did last year.
AL division winners:
Boston
Minnesota
Oakland
AL wild card:
New York
NL division winners:
Philadelphia
St. Louis
San Francisco
NL wild card:
Chicago
Your Seattle Mariners:
87-75. They won the division about 1/4th of the time, and took the wild card once every 40 projections. The system has our offense dropping off a slight amount, while our pitching surrenders an average of 83 more runs than it did last year.
AL division winners:
Boston
Minnesota
Oakland
AL wild card:
New York
NL division winners:
Philadelphia
St. Louis
San Francisco
NL wild card:
Chicago
Freddy Adu isn't starting today for DC United.
That's got to be among the worst decisions in MLS history. Precious few people watching this game care how DC does; everyone just wants to see Adu's professional debut.
I'm sure he'll wind up in the game at some point, but how many people will still be watching?
That's got to be among the worst decisions in MLS history. Precious few people watching this game care how DC does; everyone just wants to see Adu's professional debut.
I'm sure he'll wind up in the game at some point, but how many people will still be watching?
Scott Spiezio's back injury may be worse than originally thought, so says Bob Melvin. Sandfrog is apparently going from doctor to doctor, trying to find a quack who will declare him physically fit and eligible for immediate playing time. Nevermind that back injuries have a long and painful history of lingering and popping up at the most inconvenient of times; the article mentions more immediately alarming news:
With Spiezio likely heading for the disabled list, it would appear that utility man Ramon Santiago, acquired in the trade with Detroit for Carlos Guillen, will make the 25-man roster.
It is a well-known fact that Ramon Santiago is garbage, has always *been* garbage, and will always *be* garbage. We're talking a few levels below Bloomquist/Bocachica here (okay, not really, but he is worse). And so, assuming that this will take place, Spiezio's injury will lead not only to a decrease in third base productivity, but also a worse performance from the utility position, as the Mariners have achieved the remarkable feat of finding someone worse than Wee Willie Bloomquist. It's really too bad that there isn't anyone else to call up. I mean, if we had a useful infielder somewhere in the minor leagues with a ML-ready bat then we'd really be well off, because a player like that could really help us...
But seriously, the article claims that it's Leone's defense that's holding him back. This is something I'd never heard before; since I became aware of this true man among boys in AA last year, all I ever read were scouts' ravings about his glove, that he already had ML defense. When your third baseman gets a significant chunk of playing time in the middle infield, chances are he's pretty strong behind the pitcher. Oh, and that bat doesn't hurt, either: .235/.341/.455 translated line from last year, and he has a PECOTA projection of .232/.311/.418. Granted, the latter isn't particularly good, but it's better than Bloomquist, and there's the potential for so much more (.296 EqA for his 90% projection).
At least the article acknowledged Leone's existence, I guess.
But wait. What's this?
Depending on how long Spiezio could be out, the club may entertain the idea of trading for a veteran third baseman.
*sigh*
Why learn a lesson, when you can continue along the same path that led to this problem in the first place? Go, go get Robin Ventura, and see what happens when he hurts his back in two weeks.
It's not really difficult to understand why the organization dislikes Justin Leone so much, though. Just check out one of his quotes from this P-I article:
If you could have the swing of any player, past or present, who would it be?
Alex Rodriguez. When I was in college, I used to try to hit like him, to emulate his swing. He hits the ball pretty far. Him or Otis Nixon. Just kidding.
We can't have anyone on the major league roster respecting a talented young player who slapped the organization in the face, now can we?
With Spiezio likely heading for the disabled list, it would appear that utility man Ramon Santiago, acquired in the trade with Detroit for Carlos Guillen, will make the 25-man roster.
It is a well-known fact that Ramon Santiago is garbage, has always *been* garbage, and will always *be* garbage. We're talking a few levels below Bloomquist/Bocachica here (okay, not really, but he is worse). And so, assuming that this will take place, Spiezio's injury will lead not only to a decrease in third base productivity, but also a worse performance from the utility position, as the Mariners have achieved the remarkable feat of finding someone worse than Wee Willie Bloomquist. It's really too bad that there isn't anyone else to call up. I mean, if we had a useful infielder somewhere in the minor leagues with a ML-ready bat then we'd really be well off, because a player like that could really help us...
But seriously, the article claims that it's Leone's defense that's holding him back. This is something I'd never heard before; since I became aware of this true man among boys in AA last year, all I ever read were scouts' ravings about his glove, that he already had ML defense. When your third baseman gets a significant chunk of playing time in the middle infield, chances are he's pretty strong behind the pitcher. Oh, and that bat doesn't hurt, either: .235/.341/.455 translated line from last year, and he has a PECOTA projection of .232/.311/.418. Granted, the latter isn't particularly good, but it's better than Bloomquist, and there's the potential for so much more (.296 EqA for his 90% projection).
At least the article acknowledged Leone's existence, I guess.
But wait. What's this?
Depending on how long Spiezio could be out, the club may entertain the idea of trading for a veteran third baseman.
*sigh*
Why learn a lesson, when you can continue along the same path that led to this problem in the first place? Go, go get Robin Ventura, and see what happens when he hurts his back in two weeks.
It's not really difficult to understand why the organization dislikes Justin Leone so much, though. Just check out one of his quotes from this P-I article:
If you could have the swing of any player, past or present, who would it be?
Alex Rodriguez. When I was in college, I used to try to hit like him, to emulate his swing. He hits the ball pretty far. Him or Otis Nixon. Just kidding.
We can't have anyone on the major league roster respecting a talented young player who slapped the organization in the face, now can we?
Frightening news from Mets camp.
New York Mets pitcher Al Leiter was hit in the head by a line drive Saturday, forcing him out of a spring training game against the Florida Marlins.
Leiter seems to be fine, but while he got drilled by a screaming liner, he dodged a major bullet. Less than two years ago I had the same thing happen to me in baseball practice, and there were severe complications from which I'm still recovering. Al Leiter should thank his lucky stars each and every day that he isn't brain-damaged (or worse).
New York Mets pitcher Al Leiter was hit in the head by a line drive Saturday, forcing him out of a spring training game against the Florida Marlins.
Leiter seems to be fine, but while he got drilled by a screaming liner, he dodged a major bullet. Less than two years ago I had the same thing happen to me in baseball practice, and there were severe complications from which I'm still recovering. Al Leiter should thank his lucky stars each and every day that he isn't brain-damaged (or worse).
Leave it to reality to interrupt our daydreaming.
No Bradley for Seattle.
The Mariners had asked about Bradley in the past few months, but "he is not a good fit for us," according to the source.
You could see that one coming a mile away. Doesn't explain why were were apparently interested in him *last* year, but I guess that's the kind of thing only team officials would know...
Oh well; not like we ever really thought we had a shot. This remains a fascinating story, and I will be very interested in seeing what Cleveland winds up getting in return for their talented, irritable center fielder.
Something else I noticed in the article:
Asked about the rumors yesterday, general manager Bill Bavasi said, "I'm not going to get into specifics about specific players, but we're happy with our roster the way it is...
I guess all that jibber-jabber about looking for another bench bat with pop from a month and a half ago was just for show.
No Bradley for Seattle.
The Mariners had asked about Bradley in the past few months, but "he is not a good fit for us," according to the source.
You could see that one coming a mile away. Doesn't explain why were were apparently interested in him *last* year, but I guess that's the kind of thing only team officials would know...
Oh well; not like we ever really thought we had a shot. This remains a fascinating story, and I will be very interested in seeing what Cleveland winds up getting in return for their talented, irritable center fielder.
Something else I noticed in the article:
Asked about the rumors yesterday, general manager Bill Bavasi said, "I'm not going to get into specifics about specific players, but we're happy with our roster the way it is...
I guess all that jibber-jabber about looking for another bench bat with pop from a month and a half ago was just for show.
Obligatory hockey note:
With their wholly unimpressive 3-1 win in the Wachovia Center tonight, Ottawa slipped into a first-place tie with Boston (while the Bruins have a game in hand). If the Senators manage to pull out a victory on home ice tomorrow night against the Maple Leafs, then the pressure will be on Boston, who will need to take at least three points in their home-and-home series against New Jersey if they want to win the division.
Lalime and Todd White (finally!) might be back in time for tomorrow's contest. They will certainly be back in plenty of time for the playoffs.
With their wholly unimpressive 3-1 win in the Wachovia Center tonight, Ottawa slipped into a first-place tie with Boston (while the Bruins have a game in hand). If the Senators manage to pull out a victory on home ice tomorrow night against the Maple Leafs, then the pressure will be on Boston, who will need to take at least three points in their home-and-home series against New Jersey if they want to win the division.
Lalime and Todd White (finally!) might be back in time for tomorrow's contest. They will certainly be back in plenty of time for the playoffs.
Get your P-I staff predictions here. Jim Moore had some fun with this, while three of the other four writers believe that one of two historic curses will come to an end this October.
For those of you who pay attention to ex-Mariners, Jeff Cirillo has come down with a nasty case of Rule 5 Syndrome and will miss four to six weeks.
Friday, April 02, 2004
You know, if there's one thing that annoys me more than bulk mail, it's bulk mail that tries to be clever.
Nevermind the whole "Re: Your paper" subject bars (or what have you) that try to seem legitimate; that's been going on for a while, now. But replacing a phrase like "offers exceptional value with no down payment" with "ófférs éxcéptíónál válúé wíth nó dówn páýmént"?
That's genius. And I don't like it.
Nevermind the whole "Re: Your paper" subject bars (or what have you) that try to seem legitimate; that's been going on for a while, now. But replacing a phrase like "offers exceptional value with no down payment" with "ófférs éxcéptíónál válúé wíth nó dówn páýmént"?
That's genius. And I don't like it.
This has nothing to do with anything, but if you've got a few minutes, read this piece on Lew Ford.
Rather than copy and paste sections of the article, I suggest you check it out yourself. It'll brighten your day.
Rather than copy and paste sections of the article, I suggest you check it out yourself. It'll brighten your day.
Might as well mention the Bradley article that's getting passed around the blogosphere. Moving on...
More of the back-and-forth banter between myself and Rick at Mariner Bullpen:
I am of the opinion that, while neither Bloomquist nor Bocachica deserve major league jobs (hello? Leone?), Bloomquist is the better option if you absolutely have to pick one of them for the roster. He's simply better prepared to "contribute" at the major league this year than Ee-rahm is. Bocachica's ST performace is great and all, but it's nothing new; over his career, he's amassed a .294 BA in March, to go along with a significantly more impressive .545 SLG (8 homers in 143 at bats). For whatever reason, Hiram seems to be one of those guys who plays lights-out during ST and doesn't have it translate into regular season performance, joining the ranks of such household names as John Roskos and Kory DeHaan. Could a light turn on in Bocachica's head, resulting in some sort of utility player offensive powderkeg? Sure, I guess, but if anything's been killing him so far in his career it's been inconsistent ML playing time, and that sure as hell wouldn't get any better in 2004 were he given Bloomquist's job.
Not that any of this should matter. Free Justin Leone! Give the third base job to someone who's earned it through performance, rather than rewarding hustle and a stunning ability to fill out a uniform.
Also, thanks to Rick for the compliment near the beginning of his entry, but it'll be a cold day in Missoura' before a Seattle-based media outlet directs its readership to visit a website entitled Fire Bavasi.
More of the back-and-forth banter between myself and Rick at Mariner Bullpen:
I am of the opinion that, while neither Bloomquist nor Bocachica deserve major league jobs (hello? Leone?), Bloomquist is the better option if you absolutely have to pick one of them for the roster. He's simply better prepared to "contribute" at the major league this year than Ee-rahm is. Bocachica's ST performace is great and all, but it's nothing new; over his career, he's amassed a .294 BA in March, to go along with a significantly more impressive .545 SLG (8 homers in 143 at bats). For whatever reason, Hiram seems to be one of those guys who plays lights-out during ST and doesn't have it translate into regular season performance, joining the ranks of such household names as John Roskos and Kory DeHaan. Could a light turn on in Bocachica's head, resulting in some sort of utility player offensive powderkeg? Sure, I guess, but if anything's been killing him so far in his career it's been inconsistent ML playing time, and that sure as hell wouldn't get any better in 2004 were he given Bloomquist's job.
Not that any of this should matter. Free Justin Leone! Give the third base job to someone who's earned it through performance, rather than rewarding hustle and a stunning ability to fill out a uniform.
Also, thanks to Rick for the compliment near the beginning of his entry, but it'll be a cold day in Missoura' before a Seattle-based media outlet directs its readership to visit a website entitled Fire Bavasi.
Ben Maller insists that the M's are interested in Bradley.
Whether or not Ben Maller is to be trusted is a matter I'll leave up to the individual.
Update: Maller's source is The Plain Dealer, so you may lend a little more credibility to the story. Thanks to the other Jeff for pointing this out.
Whether or not Ben Maller is to be trusted is a matter I'll leave up to the individual.
Update: Maller's source is The Plain Dealer, so you may lend a little more credibility to the story. Thanks to the other Jeff for pointing this out.
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