What a guy.
Martinez said Friday that club officials asked him in August if he wanted to be traded to a pennant contender so he would have one final shot at playing in a World Series. He said thanks, but no thanks.
"It wouldn't have meant as much to me to play in a World Series for another team," he said. "When I decided this was going to be my last year, I never thought about going to another team."
Seriously, Edgar deserves a hell of a going away party on the second.
Saturday, September 18, 2004
Non-Mariners post:
I watched all of tonight's Red Sox/Yankees tilt, and it turned out to be the best baseball game I've seen since...well, since the last time the two teams met up, I guess. You think NYY'ers are going to be just a little nervous next time Rivera takes the hill against Boston?
Anyway, I'm not going to recap the game; rather, I just wanted to mention a single play which may very well fly under the media's radar, given Barry Bonds' accomplishment on the same night. After a John Olerud solo shot put the Yankees on top 2-1 in the fifth, Miguel Cairo came up and hit a towering fly ball down the left field line which came down behind the fence. Cairo broke into his home run trot (does Miguel Cairo have a home run trot?), completely oblivious of what had happened to the ball.
Manny Ramirez made the catch of a lifetime, leaping into the seats with perfect timing to rob the home run. Cairo must have thought the ensuing applause was in response to his hit, because he just kept on jogging along the basepaths, slapping a high five with the third base coach (who was, evidently, also in the dark) as he passed.
It wasn't until Cairo walked back to the dugout that the on-deck hitter, Kenny Lofton, pointed to left field. Bewildered, Cairo turned and made the home run signal with his index finger (you know, the one where you draw an invisible horizontal circle in the air). Manny Ramirez pointed at him, smiling, and Cairo just about lost it, astonished that his longball had turned into a meaningless out. Turned out to be an important play, too, as the Sox rallied in the ninth for another dramatic come-from-behind win against their rivals.
All in all, the play was one of the most satisfying pieces of video that I've seen in a while. And hey, you, too, can watch it on instant replay! Navigate yourself to Boston's video page and click on yesterday's Plays Of The Game.
Good stuff. And hey, Greg Dobbs hit a three-run double that put the Mariners in the lead for good tonight, so I guess the organization can label him a "clutch hitter" now.
I watched all of tonight's Red Sox/Yankees tilt, and it turned out to be the best baseball game I've seen since...well, since the last time the two teams met up, I guess. You think NYY'ers are going to be just a little nervous next time Rivera takes the hill against Boston?
Anyway, I'm not going to recap the game; rather, I just wanted to mention a single play which may very well fly under the media's radar, given Barry Bonds' accomplishment on the same night. After a John Olerud solo shot put the Yankees on top 2-1 in the fifth, Miguel Cairo came up and hit a towering fly ball down the left field line which came down behind the fence. Cairo broke into his home run trot (does Miguel Cairo have a home run trot?), completely oblivious of what had happened to the ball.
Manny Ramirez made the catch of a lifetime, leaping into the seats with perfect timing to rob the home run. Cairo must have thought the ensuing applause was in response to his hit, because he just kept on jogging along the basepaths, slapping a high five with the third base coach (who was, evidently, also in the dark) as he passed.
It wasn't until Cairo walked back to the dugout that the on-deck hitter, Kenny Lofton, pointed to left field. Bewildered, Cairo turned and made the home run signal with his index finger (you know, the one where you draw an invisible horizontal circle in the air). Manny Ramirez pointed at him, smiling, and Cairo just about lost it, astonished that his longball had turned into a meaningless out. Turned out to be an important play, too, as the Sox rallied in the ninth for another dramatic come-from-behind win against their rivals.
All in all, the play was one of the most satisfying pieces of video that I've seen in a while. And hey, you, too, can watch it on instant replay! Navigate yourself to Boston's video page and click on yesterday's Plays Of The Game.
Good stuff. And hey, Greg Dobbs hit a three-run double that put the Mariners in the lead for good tonight, so I guess the organization can label him a "clutch hitter" now.
Friday, September 17, 2004
Heads up. Now that the minor league seasons are over, Nate Silver decided to evaluate the performances of this year's Top 50 prospects (the position players, anyway), judging them on how well they did with respect to their PECOTA expectations. He broke it up into six groups:
...basing each category on PECOTA's percentile expectations. For example, if a certain 32 year old shortstop were to hit, say, .241/.305/.337 (.224 EqA), and his 10th percentile projection pegs him for a .237/.286/.363 line (.223 EqA), then you would look for the corresponding category and enter the player under that header. In Silver's words, in order to Markedly Underperform Expectations a player would need to achieve his "25th percentile or worse" PECOTA forecast, so this is where the shortstop belongs.
As you may or may not remember, midseason acquisition Jeremy Reed was rated the #2 overall prospect in baseball last February after hitting .333/.431/.477 in Winstom-Salem and .409/.474/.591 in his first exposure to AA as a fresh 22 year old. PECOTA's median projection put him at a .269 EqA, but by the end of the year he was sitting at .231, slightly below his tenth percentile. Thus, according to the guidelines stipulated in the article, Reed Markedly Underperformed Expectations. Let's take a look at what Silver had to say:
This is the level at which a player's performance has deteriorated enough that it almost certainly reflects a fundamental overestimation of their ability level rather than some sort of unlucky season. I still do not think that the White Sox did well for themselves by trading Jeremy Reed, but this year seems to validate the skeptical point of view, which is that he does not have quite enough to offer as a corner outfielder unless he hits for a very high batting average. I'll be curious to see just how far PECOTA downgrades him next year; at first glance, he's looking like a Todd Hollandsworth clone. Reed's swing is not designed for power, so it would be interesting to see how he'd do with some different batting instruction.
First things first: the White Sox may have been skeptical, but Joe Borchard's hitting a paltry .152/.230/.268 through 150+ plate appearances with the big club, so early indications show that they held on to the wrong outfielder.
Is it fair to group Reed with a horde of other could-be busts? After all, he hit .289/.361/.436 as a 22/23 year old playing in AAA for the first time and spending half the season in a pitcher's park (Charlotte is neutral). What's more is that he displayed a strong approach to the plate, walking 59 times while striking out on 56 occasions. He even plays center field, which only serves to make his numbers more valuable.
So what's the catch?
Well, first of all, he doesn't play a very *good* center field, running routes as if, in Trent's words, he's being "chased by bees", and flashing a mediocre arm (which is still stronger than that thing attached to Randy Winn's right shoulder). Unless he shows a tremendous amount of development defensively next year, it's likely that he gets forced into a corner spot, where he'd need to inflate his numbers a little bit in order to retain the same amount of offensive value.
Is this possible?
Let's pretend, for a moment, that Reed puts up the same numbers in the Majors as he put up in AAA (.289/.361/.436). Such a performance would make him an above-average center fielder and an average corner OF (but a probable liability on a contending team). Assuming that he eventually moves away from center field, we can plot his value according to a neat little template:
Batting average at .315 or above: Very good player
.300-.314: Moderately good player
.285-.299: Average player
.270-.284: 1995 Rich Amaral
.269 and below: Bad player
.240: 1992 Rich Amaral
It's tempting to say that Reed's value is derived entirely from his batting average, but this isn't completely true; he drew a walk every 9.7 plate appearances in AAA (consistent with his career totals), which will keep his OBP from sinking to abysmal levels when he goes into a funk.
That said, while he does walk a little bit, his power isn't developing. Just 29% of his hits went for extra bases this year (also consistent with his career totals), and his .147 isoSLG would have ranked him 46th out of 58 qualified outfielders in the Majors this year. A cursory glance at his PECOTA comparables reveals a bunch of guys who never developed much power (and Don Mattingly), and after watching his pop stagnate in 2004, it's becoming less and less likely that Reed ever develops into a 20-homer threat.
-not that there haven't been plenty of successful singles-hitting outfielders. Reed's #2 most comparable player is Tony Gwynn, a superstar at his crests and a fine (albeit injury-prone) ballplayer at his troughs. Certainly, if Reed is able to hit .300 in the Majors, he's going to find himself gainfully employed for several years. It's a mark that he's achieved in 3.5 of his 4 professional seasons to date (he hit .305 in the half-season he spent with Tacoma), and his speed and ability to hit for contact will ensure that his batting average never dips too low. A quick line-drive swing will continue to translate into well-struck singles; in essence, these types of players have a low flameout rate, compared to that of, say, all-or-nothing sluggers or any type of pitcher.
So, what can we expect from Reed? While he does walk a bit, a great deal of his value does come from his batting average. When you consider that singles have accounted for four-fifths of his career hits, it becomes immediately clear that he's going to have a bunch of up-and-down seasons - singles rely on luck more than anything else, and individual year-to-year singles rates show wild fluctuation. Speaking strictly in terms of offensive productivity, I think Reed will follow a similar career path as Darin Erstad, just with lower highs and higher lows. Why don't we put this another way:
Peak: Tony Gwynn, .305 EqA (.338/.388/.459)
Low: BJ Surhoff, .258 EqA (.282/.333/.415)
Career Average: Darin Erstad, .263 EqA (.291/.345/.426)
...where he has a greater probability of hanging out in the upper range than the lower one, if only because he draws more walks than Erstad.
What do we take from this? Improving his power - even by the slightest bit - makes Reed that much more likely to become a solid Major League player. By the same token, he could also make himself more valuable by becoming a better defensive center fielder, which should come with both experience and commitment. All four of his appearances with the Mariners so far have been in center field, which suggests that the organization considers that to be his long-term position.
Reed doesn't hit for much power. Nate Silver thinks that a little sock is "essential" for any corner outfield prospect, and - unless you've got a guy who draws 80-100 walks a year - he's probably right. Reed is going to make a lot of people happy when he's at his peak, but he's also the kind of guy who could hit for a high average one year, fooling someone into handing him a significant contract, and then regress considerable the next. When things are going well, Reed and Ichiro should provide more one-baggers than we know what to do with from the 1-2 slots in the lineup, but those of you who don't like the idea of Randy Winn's offense from a corner OF spot probably aren't going to like Reed much better.
- Dramatically Exceeded Expectations
- Markedly Exceeded Expectations
- Exceeded Expectations
- Met Expectations
- Underperformed Expectations
- Markedly Underperformed Expectations
...basing each category on PECOTA's percentile expectations. For example, if a certain 32 year old shortstop were to hit, say, .241/.305/.337 (.224 EqA), and his 10th percentile projection pegs him for a .237/.286/.363 line (.223 EqA), then you would look for the corresponding category and enter the player under that header. In Silver's words, in order to Markedly Underperform Expectations a player would need to achieve his "25th percentile or worse" PECOTA forecast, so this is where the shortstop belongs.
As you may or may not remember, midseason acquisition Jeremy Reed was rated the #2 overall prospect in baseball last February after hitting .333/.431/.477 in Winstom-Salem and .409/.474/.591 in his first exposure to AA as a fresh 22 year old. PECOTA's median projection put him at a .269 EqA, but by the end of the year he was sitting at .231, slightly below his tenth percentile. Thus, according to the guidelines stipulated in the article, Reed Markedly Underperformed Expectations. Let's take a look at what Silver had to say:
This is the level at which a player's performance has deteriorated enough that it almost certainly reflects a fundamental overestimation of their ability level rather than some sort of unlucky season. I still do not think that the White Sox did well for themselves by trading Jeremy Reed, but this year seems to validate the skeptical point of view, which is that he does not have quite enough to offer as a corner outfielder unless he hits for a very high batting average. I'll be curious to see just how far PECOTA downgrades him next year; at first glance, he's looking like a Todd Hollandsworth clone. Reed's swing is not designed for power, so it would be interesting to see how he'd do with some different batting instruction.
First things first: the White Sox may have been skeptical, but Joe Borchard's hitting a paltry .152/.230/.268 through 150+ plate appearances with the big club, so early indications show that they held on to the wrong outfielder.
Is it fair to group Reed with a horde of other could-be busts? After all, he hit .289/.361/.436 as a 22/23 year old playing in AAA for the first time and spending half the season in a pitcher's park (Charlotte is neutral). What's more is that he displayed a strong approach to the plate, walking 59 times while striking out on 56 occasions. He even plays center field, which only serves to make his numbers more valuable.
So what's the catch?
Well, first of all, he doesn't play a very *good* center field, running routes as if, in Trent's words, he's being "chased by bees", and flashing a mediocre arm (which is still stronger than that thing attached to Randy Winn's right shoulder). Unless he shows a tremendous amount of development defensively next year, it's likely that he gets forced into a corner spot, where he'd need to inflate his numbers a little bit in order to retain the same amount of offensive value.
Is this possible?
Let's pretend, for a moment, that Reed puts up the same numbers in the Majors as he put up in AAA (.289/.361/.436). Such a performance would make him an above-average center fielder and an average corner OF (but a probable liability on a contending team). Assuming that he eventually moves away from center field, we can plot his value according to a neat little template:
Batting average at .315 or above: Very good player
.300-.314: Moderately good player
.285-.299: Average player
.270-.284: 1995 Rich Amaral
.269 and below: Bad player
.240: 1992 Rich Amaral
It's tempting to say that Reed's value is derived entirely from his batting average, but this isn't completely true; he drew a walk every 9.7 plate appearances in AAA (consistent with his career totals), which will keep his OBP from sinking to abysmal levels when he goes into a funk.
That said, while he does walk a little bit, his power isn't developing. Just 29% of his hits went for extra bases this year (also consistent with his career totals), and his .147 isoSLG would have ranked him 46th out of 58 qualified outfielders in the Majors this year. A cursory glance at his PECOTA comparables reveals a bunch of guys who never developed much power (and Don Mattingly), and after watching his pop stagnate in 2004, it's becoming less and less likely that Reed ever develops into a 20-homer threat.
-not that there haven't been plenty of successful singles-hitting outfielders. Reed's #2 most comparable player is Tony Gwynn, a superstar at his crests and a fine (albeit injury-prone) ballplayer at his troughs. Certainly, if Reed is able to hit .300 in the Majors, he's going to find himself gainfully employed for several years. It's a mark that he's achieved in 3.5 of his 4 professional seasons to date (he hit .305 in the half-season he spent with Tacoma), and his speed and ability to hit for contact will ensure that his batting average never dips too low. A quick line-drive swing will continue to translate into well-struck singles; in essence, these types of players have a low flameout rate, compared to that of, say, all-or-nothing sluggers or any type of pitcher.
So, what can we expect from Reed? While he does walk a bit, a great deal of his value does come from his batting average. When you consider that singles have accounted for four-fifths of his career hits, it becomes immediately clear that he's going to have a bunch of up-and-down seasons - singles rely on luck more than anything else, and individual year-to-year singles rates show wild fluctuation. Speaking strictly in terms of offensive productivity, I think Reed will follow a similar career path as Darin Erstad, just with lower highs and higher lows. Why don't we put this another way:
Peak: Tony Gwynn, .305 EqA (.338/.388/.459)
Low: BJ Surhoff, .258 EqA (.282/.333/.415)
Career Average: Darin Erstad, .263 EqA (.291/.345/.426)
...where he has a greater probability of hanging out in the upper range than the lower one, if only because he draws more walks than Erstad.
What do we take from this? Improving his power - even by the slightest bit - makes Reed that much more likely to become a solid Major League player. By the same token, he could also make himself more valuable by becoming a better defensive center fielder, which should come with both experience and commitment. All four of his appearances with the Mariners so far have been in center field, which suggests that the organization considers that to be his long-term position.
Reed doesn't hit for much power. Nate Silver thinks that a little sock is "essential" for any corner outfield prospect, and - unless you've got a guy who draws 80-100 walks a year - he's probably right. Reed is going to make a lot of people happy when he's at his peak, but he's also the kind of guy who could hit for a high average one year, fooling someone into handing him a significant contract, and then regress considerable the next. When things are going well, Reed and Ichiro should provide more one-baggers than we know what to do with from the 1-2 slots in the lineup, but those of you who don't like the idea of Randy Winn's offense from a corner OF spot probably aren't going to like Reed much better.
I've gotten a few questions about who is and isn't going to play winterball. Well, now I've got some answers.
Justin Leone, Matt Thornton, and Clint Nageotte will be playing in Venezuela. George Sherrill and Julio Mateo (who was just activated from the DL) will *not* participate.
Also, for those of you interested in attending Edgar Martinez Day on October 2nd:
The game time for the Oct. 2 home game against the Rangers remains undetermined, pending FOX's decision to carry the game as part of its national package. If FOX carries the game, it will start at 1:05 p.m. PT. If not, the game will start at 5:30 p.m. PT. FOX officials have until Sept. 27 to make a decision, so stay tuned and hold off on those barbeque plans.
Justin Leone, Matt Thornton, and Clint Nageotte will be playing in Venezuela. George Sherrill and Julio Mateo (who was just activated from the DL) will *not* participate.
Also, for those of you interested in attending Edgar Martinez Day on October 2nd:
The game time for the Oct. 2 home game against the Rangers remains undetermined, pending FOX's decision to carry the game as part of its national package. If FOX carries the game, it will start at 1:05 p.m. PT. If not, the game will start at 5:30 p.m. PT. FOX officials have until Sept. 27 to make a decision, so stay tuned and hold off on those barbeque plans.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
I know that I am critical of certain players on the Mariners roster *cough*BloomquistandFranklin*cough*, but occasionally one of these players has a terrific game or stretch that deserves acknowledgement. Ryan Franklin is one of those players that has been in my crosshairs all season long, but his performance last night deserves a tip of the hat. Franklin allowed only two hits against the Angels, ending his 11 game losing streak and winning his first game in his past 17 chances. So, congrats Franklin on snapping your losing streak. I hope the success continues for the rest of the year so you might be able to salvage any trade value left in your arm.
While I’m on the topic of pitching, how good has Bobby M been? After getting knocked around by the ChiSox earlier in the month, Bobby has mowed over the Red Sox and Angels, two of the better offensive clubs in baseball. He has pitched himself into serious contention for a starting role in 2005, if he hasn’t already earned a spot. Despite all this fanfare surrounding Bobby’s tremendous success, it needs to be noted that every so often pitchers come up to the majors, confuse teams the first time they see them and then get destroyed the second or third time out and ride off into the sunset, never to be heard from again (Jeff's note: remember Chris Michalak?). I’m not trying to paint a negative picture, but if the M’s do count on Bobby as their fifth starter next season, hopefully they have a fall back plan just in case.
We are in the final stretch of this long and painful season and all eyes are starting to focus on Ichiro. After an unbelievable July and August, Ichiro still has a realistic shot at breaking the record. There are 17 games left in the season and Ichiro needs 25 hits to break Sisler’s record by 1. Ichiro has been able to keep all of us Mariner fans enthralled in the games despite the lost season and hopefully will be able to beat the record, although even if he does come up short, it has been one hell of a ride.
Couple of quick notes:
~ The Kendry Morales watch has pretty much calmed as teams have either liked what they have seen or have been discouraged. A lot of teams expected to sign Morales and plug him into their starting line-ups in 2005, which isn’t going to happen. Like I stated at the beginning of this frenzy, he is going to need time to get back into baseball condition and shape. This is a guy who hasn’t played for over a year because the Cuban government feared he was planning on defecting in the fall of 2004, (they were right), and banned him form any and all baseball teams and activities. The Mets have emerged as the front runners, but even their interest has calmed based on the fact that he still wants too much money. As his price falls other teams will call, as the guy is still a very promising young player.
~ The rumors persist that FA center fielder Carlos Beltran is considering firing Scott Boras before he applies for free agency. Couple this with the Yankees supposedly making the retooling of their starting staff their first priority this off-season (Pedro anyone?), the Mariners chances of landing Beltran might have gotten a bit of a boost.
~ On a similar topic, if you think the Dodgers are prepared to let Adrian Beltre walk away without a fight, think again. An article ran the other day in the LA Times that hinted at Frank McCourt’s willingness to make Adrian Beltre a very rich man.
~ Jim Tracy still hasn’t received a contract extension offer from the Dodgers and there is a very realistic possibility that if the Dodgers don’t make it deep into the playoffs, he will lose his job. Add him to the list of potential managerial candidates, but put an asterisk next to it.
~ Anyone else noticing that BoMel and Pryce are managing the pitchers like they know they are gone at the end of the season?
And finally, I got a good laugh out of this clip from this month’s ESPN the Magazine:
…So how could Kevin Brown do something as stupid as breaking his left hand punching a wall? Well he has a history: in 1995 Mike Flanagan, then Baltimore’s pitching coach, was summoned to the clubhouse during a game because Brown, then an Oriole, was threatening to set his own uniform on fire after a poor outing...
Think he was wearing the uniform at the time?
While I’m on the topic of pitching, how good has Bobby M been? After getting knocked around by the ChiSox earlier in the month, Bobby has mowed over the Red Sox and Angels, two of the better offensive clubs in baseball. He has pitched himself into serious contention for a starting role in 2005, if he hasn’t already earned a spot. Despite all this fanfare surrounding Bobby’s tremendous success, it needs to be noted that every so often pitchers come up to the majors, confuse teams the first time they see them and then get destroyed the second or third time out and ride off into the sunset, never to be heard from again (Jeff's note: remember Chris Michalak?). I’m not trying to paint a negative picture, but if the M’s do count on Bobby as their fifth starter next season, hopefully they have a fall back plan just in case.
We are in the final stretch of this long and painful season and all eyes are starting to focus on Ichiro. After an unbelievable July and August, Ichiro still has a realistic shot at breaking the record. There are 17 games left in the season and Ichiro needs 25 hits to break Sisler’s record by 1. Ichiro has been able to keep all of us Mariner fans enthralled in the games despite the lost season and hopefully will be able to beat the record, although even if he does come up short, it has been one hell of a ride.
Couple of quick notes:
~ The Kendry Morales watch has pretty much calmed as teams have either liked what they have seen or have been discouraged. A lot of teams expected to sign Morales and plug him into their starting line-ups in 2005, which isn’t going to happen. Like I stated at the beginning of this frenzy, he is going to need time to get back into baseball condition and shape. This is a guy who hasn’t played for over a year because the Cuban government feared he was planning on defecting in the fall of 2004, (they were right), and banned him form any and all baseball teams and activities. The Mets have emerged as the front runners, but even their interest has calmed based on the fact that he still wants too much money. As his price falls other teams will call, as the guy is still a very promising young player.
~ The rumors persist that FA center fielder Carlos Beltran is considering firing Scott Boras before he applies for free agency. Couple this with the Yankees supposedly making the retooling of their starting staff their first priority this off-season (Pedro anyone?), the Mariners chances of landing Beltran might have gotten a bit of a boost.
~ On a similar topic, if you think the Dodgers are prepared to let Adrian Beltre walk away without a fight, think again. An article ran the other day in the LA Times that hinted at Frank McCourt’s willingness to make Adrian Beltre a very rich man.
~ Jim Tracy still hasn’t received a contract extension offer from the Dodgers and there is a very realistic possibility that if the Dodgers don’t make it deep into the playoffs, he will lose his job. Add him to the list of potential managerial candidates, but put an asterisk next to it.
~ Anyone else noticing that BoMel and Pryce are managing the pitchers like they know they are gone at the end of the season?
And finally, I got a good laugh out of this clip from this month’s ESPN the Magazine:
…So how could Kevin Brown do something as stupid as breaking his left hand punching a wall? Well he has a history: in 1995 Mike Flanagan, then Baltimore’s pitching coach, was summoned to the clubhouse during a game because Brown, then an Oriole, was threatening to set his own uniform on fire after a poor outing...
Think he was wearing the uniform at the time?
I normally only do this for Mariners blogs, but John, an acquaintance of mine who writes for Royal Mania, recently debuted an individual blog that's worth checking out as it develops. This one promises to cover a wider range of topics, as John gets his most important KC-related pieces up on his other site.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
By the way, I made a mistake in a post a few days ago that, as it turns out, is so extraordinary that I just have to bring it to everybody's attention.
As of Thursday, September 9:
Barry Bonds VORP: 128.2
Rest of Giants: 301.3
% of team VORP due to Bonds: 29.8
Ichiro VORP: 71.2
Rest of Mariners: 241.7
% of team VORP due to Ichiro: 22.8
* * * * *
Randy Johnson VORP: 63.5
Rest of Diamondbacks: 17.9
% of team VORP due to RJ: 78.0
Obviously, Arizona's data point represents something of a statistical anomaly - their .303 winning percentage, should it hold up until the end of the year, would be the sixth-worst in baseball since 1900 - but this still has to be some kind of record. In essence, Randy Johnson is the only thing keeping Arizona from being a team full of replacement-level players.
I don't have the time for further historical research, but I'm fairly confident that Randy Johnson's 78% of total team VORP is among the highest percentages of all time.
Anyway, off to bed, but I hope to do some more work concerning Gil Meche tomorrow afternoon.
As of Thursday, September 9:
Barry Bonds VORP: 128.2
Rest of Giants: 301.3
% of team VORP due to Bonds: 29.8
Ichiro VORP: 71.2
Rest of Mariners: 241.7
% of team VORP due to Ichiro: 22.8
* * * * *
Randy Johnson VORP: 63.5
Rest of Diamondbacks: 17.9
% of team VORP due to RJ: 78.0
Obviously, Arizona's data point represents something of a statistical anomaly - their .303 winning percentage, should it hold up until the end of the year, would be the sixth-worst in baseball since 1900 - but this still has to be some kind of record. In essence, Randy Johnson is the only thing keeping Arizona from being a team full of replacement-level players.
I don't have the time for further historical research, but I'm fairly confident that Randy Johnson's 78% of total team VORP is among the highest percentages of all time.
Anyway, off to bed, but I hope to do some more work concerning Gil Meche tomorrow afternoon.
A few moves:
Rene Rivera gets added to the 40-man roster and is called up; Brett Evert is DFA'd at his expense.
Nothing too important here - Rivera is a 21 year old catcher with all the tools in the world, and no real good idea of how to use them. After showing a little promise with the bat last year in Wisconsin, he got bumped to Inland Empire and promptly hit .235/.300/.346 over 400+ PA's. He's worth having around, if only because young catchers with good tools are few and far between, but there's no real benefit to having him up with the big squad. He'll collect a handful of at bats, maybe get a hit or two, but you probably won't see him challenging for a 25-man roster spot until 2007 (if ever).
Fun fact: Rivera went 6-for-15 with a double and a homer in a brief stint with the Rainiers late in the season, filling in for Borders. If these trends continue, we may have ourselves *two* hitters capable of hitting around .400!
...but seriously, sucks for Evert. He joined the organization, gave up eight runs in two games, and was promptly sent packing. He's got enough talent to get look after look down the road, but until he shows better command at the higher levels, he'll remain just another warm body to stash away in AAA.
Rene Rivera gets added to the 40-man roster and is called up; Brett Evert is DFA'd at his expense.
Nothing too important here - Rivera is a 21 year old catcher with all the tools in the world, and no real good idea of how to use them. After showing a little promise with the bat last year in Wisconsin, he got bumped to Inland Empire and promptly hit .235/.300/.346 over 400+ PA's. He's worth having around, if only because young catchers with good tools are few and far between, but there's no real benefit to having him up with the big squad. He'll collect a handful of at bats, maybe get a hit or two, but you probably won't see him challenging for a 25-man roster spot until 2007 (if ever).
Fun fact: Rivera went 6-for-15 with a double and a homer in a brief stint with the Rainiers late in the season, filling in for Borders. If these trends continue, we may have ourselves *two* hitters capable of hitting around .400!
...but seriously, sucks for Evert. He joined the organization, gave up eight runs in two games, and was promptly sent packing. He's got enough talent to get look after look down the road, but until he shows better command at the higher levels, he'll remain just another warm body to stash away in AAA.
Monday, September 13, 2004
Peter Gammons discusses the importance of assessing individual and team defense in his latest piece. Give that one a look.
On an unrelated topic (I didn't want to create two separate posts), Meche's performance yesterday lent a lot of support to the idea that he's a different pitcher from the one we saw in the first half. Indeed, he's come back flashing terrific command of his repertoire, keeping people off base by limiting his walks. DMZ did a quick analysis of Meche's rates since returning from Tacoma, and after a little fine-tuning, here are the official numbers since July 31st:
3.6% walk rate
4.0% home run rate
17.8% strikeout rate
DMZ goes on to label the new Gil as a "super-powered Franklin", but this rubbed me the wrong way; Meche v2.0 walks half as many hitters while striking them out more often, so - aside from identical home run rates - the two pitchers have little in common.
Unsatisfied, I decided to poke around for a little bit in an effort to find a better comparison. The closest matches I could find were:
Greg Maddux (3.65 ERA)
Zack Greinke (4.26)
Paul Byrd (3.54)
LaTroy Hawkins (2.69)
...where Meche v2.0 allows more homers than all but Greinke, strikes out more than all but Hawkins, and walks the fewest in the group.
What you have, then, is a pretty interesting group, in which Meche's closest approximations are a future Hall of Famer, a 20 year old rookie phenom, a journeyman with an extensive medical history, and a high-octane reliever.
Arrange them in order, and you get a pretty accurate description of Gil Meche's career: young kid with lots of hype and ability comes up and excites everyone by pitching well at a young age, but is forced to overcome injury and workload in order to fulfill his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Arm troubles down the road could force him to the bullpen, if not ruin his career completely.
I admit, Gil's performance yesterday changed my mind. I'm usually not so prone to flip-flopping on a whim, but shutting out the best offense in the league a few weeks after keeping the Yankees off balance makes for a pretty strong case that a pitcher's got some serious ability. Barring a late-season collapse, I want to see Meche come back, because his performance and player comparisons intrigue me to no end.
Thus it becomes that much more important to protect his arm from damage. Fresh off a 129-pitch complete game against Boston, Meche now ranks ninth in Pitcher Abuse Points despite missing two months by pitching in Tacoma. Everyone is well aware of his injury history, so further wear and tear must be avoided by any means necessary. If that means pulling him at 90 pitches after four innings, so be it, because neither the team has nothing to gain by overworking Meche this late in a lost season.
On an unrelated topic (I didn't want to create two separate posts), Meche's performance yesterday lent a lot of support to the idea that he's a different pitcher from the one we saw in the first half. Indeed, he's come back flashing terrific command of his repertoire, keeping people off base by limiting his walks. DMZ did a quick analysis of Meche's rates since returning from Tacoma, and after a little fine-tuning, here are the official numbers since July 31st:
3.6% walk rate
4.0% home run rate
17.8% strikeout rate
DMZ goes on to label the new Gil as a "super-powered Franklin", but this rubbed me the wrong way; Meche v2.0 walks half as many hitters while striking them out more often, so - aside from identical home run rates - the two pitchers have little in common.
Unsatisfied, I decided to poke around for a little bit in an effort to find a better comparison. The closest matches I could find were:
Greg Maddux (3.65 ERA)
Zack Greinke (4.26)
Paul Byrd (3.54)
LaTroy Hawkins (2.69)
...where Meche v2.0 allows more homers than all but Greinke, strikes out more than all but Hawkins, and walks the fewest in the group.
What you have, then, is a pretty interesting group, in which Meche's closest approximations are a future Hall of Famer, a 20 year old rookie phenom, a journeyman with an extensive medical history, and a high-octane reliever.
Arrange them in order, and you get a pretty accurate description of Gil Meche's career: young kid with lots of hype and ability comes up and excites everyone by pitching well at a young age, but is forced to overcome injury and workload in order to fulfill his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Arm troubles down the road could force him to the bullpen, if not ruin his career completely.
I admit, Gil's performance yesterday changed my mind. I'm usually not so prone to flip-flopping on a whim, but shutting out the best offense in the league a few weeks after keeping the Yankees off balance makes for a pretty strong case that a pitcher's got some serious ability. Barring a late-season collapse, I want to see Meche come back, because his performance and player comparisons intrigue me to no end.
Thus it becomes that much more important to protect his arm from damage. Fresh off a 129-pitch complete game against Boston, Meche now ranks ninth in Pitcher Abuse Points despite missing two months by pitching in Tacoma. Everyone is well aware of his injury history, so further wear and tear must be avoided by any means necessary. If that means pulling him at 90 pitches after four innings, so be it, because neither the team has nothing to gain by overworking Meche this late in a lost season.
Sunday, September 12, 2004
I'll admit, I bit hard on the Kendry Morales story. While going over various articles from around the baseball world this morning at work, I found this article, which describes Morales as a non-athlete seeking a four year 12 million dollar contract. Then Jayson Stark wrote about Morales as well, the details of which Jeff cut and pasted below. There have also been numerous other articles describing Morales and his abilities. While Morales will not make an immediate splash in the ML leagues like so many expected, he could become at the least a productive role player on whichever team signs him in a few years, with a chance for him to become a productive regular. He will not make anywhere near the four years/$12 million he is seeking, but could still land a lucrative deal from some team, (somewhere in the vicinity of four years/$6-8 million should be expected). Morales appears to be of the same mold as Bucky Jacobsen or AJ Zapp, both of whom come at a much lower cost and at least Zapp can play defense. At this point, Morales appears best suited for the AL where he can DH and play 1B on occasion, but his star is definitely not shining as bright as it was a few weeks ago. The moral of the story, don't believe everything you read, despite the fact that you desperately want something good to happen for your team in such a horrible season. There are better options out there than Morales at this point and one of them the team has chosen to completely ignore because of his strike out rates in Tacoma.
For those of you left drooling by Trent's posts concerning Kendry Morales, Jayson Stark had a few things to say in his piece:
Cuban defector Kendry Morales was a hot enough commodity, based on reputation alone, that more than a dozen teams showed up for a workout he held last week in the Dominican Republic. But while the 21-year-old switch hitter figures to be chased by the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets, among others, he could be more of a project that advertised.
"This guy is not an immediate major-league player," said one scout who attended the workout. "He really hasn't played in a couple of years (after being suspended from the Cuban national team over fears he would defect). So it's going to take a lot of time, a lot of at-bats."
The scout's lukewarm review of Morales' skills: "Can't run at all. Pretty good stroke. Good kid. Good approach to hitting. Has to play first base. That's his only real position (even though he also played the outfield in Cuba)."
Cuban defector Kendry Morales was a hot enough commodity, based on reputation alone, that more than a dozen teams showed up for a workout he held last week in the Dominican Republic. But while the 21-year-old switch hitter figures to be chased by the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets, among others, he could be more of a project that advertised.
"This guy is not an immediate major-league player," said one scout who attended the workout. "He really hasn't played in a couple of years (after being suspended from the Cuban national team over fears he would defect). So it's going to take a lot of time, a lot of at-bats."
The scout's lukewarm review of Morales' skills: "Can't run at all. Pretty good stroke. Good kid. Good approach to hitting. Has to play first base. That's his only real position (even though he also played the outfield in Cuba)."
In case some of you haven't noticed, the M's have pulled within one game of tying the second worst record in baseball, currently held by the Kansas City Royals, which means the M's have closed within one game of Justin Upton. The Arizona Diamondbacks currently hold the worst record in baseball at 43-99, but are in serious negotiations with first round draft pick Stephen Drew and are expected to sign him in the not so distant future, likely taking them out of the Upton sweepstakes, (although anything could happen). As both teams enter the final stretch, I have attempted to project their records for the next 21 games based on their 2004 record and winning percentage against their remaining opponents. (Keep in mind that it isn't an exact science and anything can happen)
If both teams play to their projections, then they would both finish with a 59-103 record. But thanks to M's five game winning streak last month, four of which were against the Royals, the M's pushed their season record against the Royals to 5-2, which would award the Royals the 2nd overall pick in the 2005 draft.
In regards to Jeff's post below, anyone else hoping that Moyer's bad angel gets stuck in traffic?
Opponent | 2004 Record Against | 2004 Winning % Against | Projected Wins |
Chicago | 4-7 | .363 | 3-5 |
Cleveland | 6-7 | .461 | 3-3 |
New York | 2-4 | .333 | 1-2 |
Tampa Bay | 1-4 | .200 | 1-3 |
Kansas City Final Record | 8-13 | ||
Opponent | 2004 Record Against | 2004 Winning % Against | Projected Wins |
Boston | 3-5 | .375 | 0-1 |
Anaheim | 3-10 | .230 | 2-5 |
Oakland | 5-7 | .416 | 3-4 |
Texas | 4-9 | .307 | 2-4 |
Seattle Final Record | 7-14 | ||
If both teams play to their projections, then they would both finish with a 59-103 record. But thanks to M's five game winning streak last month, four of which were against the Royals, the M's pushed their season record against the Royals to 5-2, which would award the Royals the 2nd overall pick in the 2005 draft.
In regards to Jeff's post below, anyone else hoping that Moyer's bad angel gets stuck in traffic?
The 41 home runs allowed by Jamie Moyer ties him for seventh on the all-time list, with Rick Helling, Robin Roberts, and Phil Niekro. In order to break the record of 50 (Blyleven, 1986), Moyer needs to allow ten home runs in his final four starts of the season (Anaheim, @Anaheim, @Oakland, Texas). We've got more than one guy chasing the record books, and - given the way the season's gone - we'll probably see the wrong record broken.
Somewhere in Seattle on a gloomy November afternoon...
Good Angel: "Come on, Jamie, hang 'em up. You've had a great run and proven everybody wrong. Now it's time to move on."
Bad Angel: "No way man, it's seven and a half million dollars in cold hard cash! Wasn't Karen eyeing that fox-collar cardigan in the window the other day? Because, y'know, Christmas is coming up..."
Good Angel: "Jamie, you've got more than enough money in the bank. Six and a half million this year, for crying out loud. You could donate all the money you've earned in the last five years to charity and still have eight figures to live on."
Bad Angel: "You gotta come back. They wrote up the contract, didn't they?"
Good Angel: "Well I don't think that's very ethically appro-"
Bad Angel: "They made the bed, now they gotta sleep in it. Capice?"
Good Angel: "The contract was signed with the mutual understanding that each party would benefit. Your performance isn't up to par anymore, and I think retiring would be the right thing to do, before you make a fool of yourself."
Bad Angel: "You hear that? This dude's calling you a fool! Me, I'm more laid back, I just want you to do what's best for you..."
Good Angel: "Little Dillon's almost in high school, now, and I think it's time to give your family all the attention. Remember how Edgar came back because his kid told him to keep playing? Well, your family is appreciative of everything you've done, but I think they'd like it if you'd be there to drive the kids to school and pick them up from play practice..."
Bad Angel: "There are bad contracts all over the place these days! Everybody's got one. I mean, if you look a-"
Good Angel: "-I just want what's best for you, your family, and the team..."
Bad Angel: "Don't listen to Cupid, he's just tired of seeing guys like us succeed when he's stuck at home watching Wanna Come In? reruns on Friday nights."
Good Angel: "You don't want to end up like Al and Jeff, do you? The fans turned on them when they weren't living up to their contracts. You don't want to go out like that - the people should remember you for all of your contributions to the city, instead of for a bad season to end your career..."
Howard Lincoln: "Y'know, Jamie, the team's going through some rough times, and I don't think it would be right for me to ask you to spend your last year with a bunch of rookies and no-names. I think if you would hang 'em up, then...then, y'know, we could bid farewell to two incredible athletes at the same time..."
Bad Angel: "Hey there, Howie."
Good Angel: "He's got the right idea, Jamie. You've had a fine career, now it's time to say goodbye..."
Howard Lincoln: "Hey, Red. What's shakin'?"
Good Angel: "This is an important time for all of us, and I think we need to focus on the situation at hand..."
Bad Angel: "Not too much. You get my message the other day?"
Howard Lincoln: "No, I must've missed it."
Good Angel: "Jamie, with Edgar going away, the city's already got a broken heart...you don't want to re-open those wounds by walking away next winter. I really think it would be best to do it now..."
Bad Angel: "We were over at Sam's. Lots of good-lookin' tail. We missed you."
Good Angel: "So are we good, Jamie? Already finished your swan song?"
Howard Lincoln: "Y'know, Jamie, we could really use that four and a half million dollars next year to impro-"
Bad Angel: "Seven and a half million dollars."
Howard Lincoln: "-five million dollars to improve the team, should certain players become available, and I think that would be a better legacy for you to leave than a disappointing 2005 campaign."
Bad Angel: "Howie, I know we're close, but I gotta disagree with you on this one."
Good Angel: "This man runs a successful professional franchise. I think he knows what's best for all parties..."
Howard Lincoln: "So if you'd just cross this off, here-"
Bad Angel: "Just think about it: more than seven million dollars for tossing a ball a few times every five days! Hell, maybe you'll do so bad that they release you, and then you're getting paid for nothing!"
Howard Lincoln: "-and sign here..."
Somewhere in Seattle on a gloomy November afternoon...
Good Angel: "Come on, Jamie, hang 'em up. You've had a great run and proven everybody wrong. Now it's time to move on."
Bad Angel: "No way man, it's seven and a half million dollars in cold hard cash! Wasn't Karen eyeing that fox-collar cardigan in the window the other day? Because, y'know, Christmas is coming up..."
Good Angel: "Jamie, you've got more than enough money in the bank. Six and a half million this year, for crying out loud. You could donate all the money you've earned in the last five years to charity and still have eight figures to live on."
Bad Angel: "You gotta come back. They wrote up the contract, didn't they?"
Good Angel: "Well I don't think that's very ethically appro-"
Bad Angel: "They made the bed, now they gotta sleep in it. Capice?"
Good Angel: "The contract was signed with the mutual understanding that each party would benefit. Your performance isn't up to par anymore, and I think retiring would be the right thing to do, before you make a fool of yourself."
Bad Angel: "You hear that? This dude's calling you a fool! Me, I'm more laid back, I just want you to do what's best for you..."
Good Angel: "Little Dillon's almost in high school, now, and I think it's time to give your family all the attention. Remember how Edgar came back because his kid told him to keep playing? Well, your family is appreciative of everything you've done, but I think they'd like it if you'd be there to drive the kids to school and pick them up from play practice..."
Bad Angel: "There are bad contracts all over the place these days! Everybody's got one. I mean, if you look a-"
Good Angel: "-I just want what's best for you, your family, and the team..."
Bad Angel: "Don't listen to Cupid, he's just tired of seeing guys like us succeed when he's stuck at home watching Wanna Come In? reruns on Friday nights."
Good Angel: "You don't want to end up like Al and Jeff, do you? The fans turned on them when they weren't living up to their contracts. You don't want to go out like that - the people should remember you for all of your contributions to the city, instead of for a bad season to end your career..."
Howard Lincoln: "Y'know, Jamie, the team's going through some rough times, and I don't think it would be right for me to ask you to spend your last year with a bunch of rookies and no-names. I think if you would hang 'em up, then...then, y'know, we could bid farewell to two incredible athletes at the same time..."
Bad Angel: "Hey there, Howie."
Good Angel: "He's got the right idea, Jamie. You've had a fine career, now it's time to say goodbye..."
Howard Lincoln: "Hey, Red. What's shakin'?"
Good Angel: "This is an important time for all of us, and I think we need to focus on the situation at hand..."
Bad Angel: "Not too much. You get my message the other day?"
Howard Lincoln: "No, I must've missed it."
Good Angel: "Jamie, with Edgar going away, the city's already got a broken heart...you don't want to re-open those wounds by walking away next winter. I really think it would be best to do it now..."
Bad Angel: "We were over at Sam's. Lots of good-lookin' tail. We missed you."
Good Angel: "So are we good, Jamie? Already finished your swan song?"
Howard Lincoln: "Y'know, Jamie, we could really use that four and a half million dollars next year to impro-"
Bad Angel: "Seven and a half million dollars."
Howard Lincoln: "-five million dollars to improve the team, should certain players become available, and I think that would be a better legacy for you to leave than a disappointing 2005 campaign."
Bad Angel: "Howie, I know we're close, but I gotta disagree with you on this one."
Good Angel: "This man runs a successful professional franchise. I think he knows what's best for all parties..."
Howard Lincoln: "So if you'd just cross this off, here-"
Bad Angel: "Just think about it: more than seven million dollars for tossing a ball a few times every five days! Hell, maybe you'll do so bad that they release you, and then you're getting paid for nothing!"
Howard Lincoln: "-and sign here..."
Randy Williams was probably hoping to pitch a little better tonight.
Boston Inning Summary
-R. Williams relieved M. Kida
-K. Youkilis flied out to left
-G. Kapler flied out to right
-D. McCarty singled to center
-P. Reese walked, D. McCarty to second
-A. Hyzdu doubled to left, D. McCarty scored, P. Reese to third
-D. Ortiz walked
-D. Mirabelli walked, P. Reese scored, A. Hyzdu to third, D. Ortiz to second
-M. Thornton relieved R. Williams
-D. Roberts struck out swinging
You read that right; Bob Melvin, frustrated with Williams' problems finding the strike zone, pulled him in favor of Matt Thornton.
Boston Inning Summary
-R. Williams relieved M. Kida
-K. Youkilis flied out to left
-G. Kapler flied out to right
-D. McCarty singled to center
-P. Reese walked, D. McCarty to second
-A. Hyzdu doubled to left, D. McCarty scored, P. Reese to third
-D. Ortiz walked
-D. Mirabelli walked, P. Reese scored, A. Hyzdu to third, D. Ortiz to second
-M. Thornton relieved R. Williams
-D. Roberts struck out swinging
You read that right; Bob Melvin, frustrated with Williams' problems finding the strike zone, pulled him in favor of Matt Thornton.
Saturday, September 11, 2004
Say hello to Randy Williams. Although there's no specific mention of a corresponding roster move to accomodate the southpaw, I'm assuming that Sherrill's going to the DL. More to come as I hear about it.
Williams is a 28 (29 in a week) year old lefty who's pitched for San Antonio and Tacoma over the last two seasons. He's had moderate success, and has put up the following numbers:
AAA:
4.03 ERA
7.11 K/9
4.89 BB/9
1.46 K/BB
0.77 HR/9
7.97 H/9
AA:
1.73 ERA
8.21 K/9
1.51 BB/9
5.43 K/BB
0.43 HR/9
7.13 H/9
(Now that I've done all the dirty work, you can view his numbers here.) It should be noted that Williams had a bit of a rough transition to AAA in 2003 before becoming one of Tacoma's most dependable pitchers out of the bullpen this year.
What makes this move more interesting than other September promotions is that, for lefty relievers, early performance determines career path. Any southpaw who displays even the slightest ability to get hitters out will stick in the Majors for several seasons, building up a comfortable bank account over the duration. Most often, you'll find these guys hanging around fringe contenders during their best seasons, getting traded for spare parts every July and signing $500k one-year contracts with Pittsburgh in the winter.
Randy Williams has a chance to turn into a poor man's Scott Radinsky (I'll take "Phrases You Never Thought You'd Hear for $500", Alex), but a few unfortunate walks and doubles could force him down the Erik Plantenberg career path. It's something to pay attention to between Ichiro!'s at bats, anyway.
Williams is a 28 (29 in a week) year old lefty who's pitched for San Antonio and Tacoma over the last two seasons. He's had moderate success, and has put up the following numbers:
AAA:
4.03 ERA
7.11 K/9
4.89 BB/9
1.46 K/BB
0.77 HR/9
7.97 H/9
AA:
1.73 ERA
8.21 K/9
1.51 BB/9
5.43 K/BB
0.43 HR/9
7.13 H/9
(Now that I've done all the dirty work, you can view his numbers here.) It should be noted that Williams had a bit of a rough transition to AAA in 2003 before becoming one of Tacoma's most dependable pitchers out of the bullpen this year.
What makes this move more interesting than other September promotions is that, for lefty relievers, early performance determines career path. Any southpaw who displays even the slightest ability to get hitters out will stick in the Majors for several seasons, building up a comfortable bank account over the duration. Most often, you'll find these guys hanging around fringe contenders during their best seasons, getting traded for spare parts every July and signing $500k one-year contracts with Pittsburgh in the winter.
Randy Williams has a chance to turn into a poor man's Scott Radinsky (I'll take "Phrases You Never Thought You'd Hear for $500", Alex), but a few unfortunate walks and doubles could force him down the Erik Plantenberg career path. It's something to pay attention to between Ichiro!'s at bats, anyway.
Friday, September 10, 2004
Will Carroll chimed in about a few Mariners today in his latest UTK.
The Mariners got a message today from the surgical table. Eddie Guardado had planned surgery to fix his painful left knee a couple weeks back, returning to Seattle on Thursday. He told the media that he was sure that his shoulder was injured compensating for the pain and lack of range in his damaged knee. Sources tell me that Eddie quietly questioned the M's pitching and medical staff for ignoring his pain. Guardado is trying to rehab his injured pitching shoulder rather than have surgery. If the injury truly was a cascade, he may well avoid it. The M's will lose cult hero Bucky Jacobsen for the rest of the season. He'll have surgery to correct a minor but painful problem with his patella.
Now, I'm always hesitant to copy and paste these kinds of things, because I have ethical qualms with providing for free what others intended to be paid for. As such, I strongly urge you all to consider purchasing a subscription to Baseball Prospectus - it's more than worth it (Carroll's psuedo-daily Under The Knife pieces are worth the cost by themselves).
The Mariners got a message today from the surgical table. Eddie Guardado had planned surgery to fix his painful left knee a couple weeks back, returning to Seattle on Thursday. He told the media that he was sure that his shoulder was injured compensating for the pain and lack of range in his damaged knee. Sources tell me that Eddie quietly questioned the M's pitching and medical staff for ignoring his pain. Guardado is trying to rehab his injured pitching shoulder rather than have surgery. If the injury truly was a cascade, he may well avoid it. The M's will lose cult hero Bucky Jacobsen for the rest of the season. He'll have surgery to correct a minor but painful problem with his patella.
Now, I'm always hesitant to copy and paste these kinds of things, because I have ethical qualms with providing for free what others intended to be paid for. As such, I strongly urge you all to consider purchasing a subscription to Baseball Prospectus - it's more than worth it (Carroll's psuedo-daily Under The Knife pieces are worth the cost by themselves).
"Those who fail to learn the lessons of the past are condemned to repeat them."
-George Santayana.
Matt Hasselbeck, last January:
"We want the ball, and we're going to score."
Mike Vanderjagt, yesterday:
FOXBORO, Mass. -- So confident was Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt that he would make a tying, 48-yard field goal with 24 seconds remaining in Thursday night's league opener against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium...that he turned toward the Patriots' sideline before setting up for the kick and rubbed a few of his fingers together.
-George Santayana.
Matt Hasselbeck, last January:
"We want the ball, and we're going to score."
Mike Vanderjagt, yesterday:
FOXBORO, Mass. -- So confident was Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt that he would make a tying, 48-yard field goal with 24 seconds remaining in Thursday night's league opener against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium...that he turned toward the Patriots' sideline before setting up for the kick and rubbed a few of his fingers together.
Big news:
The fellows over at The Baseball Cube have updated the database to include individual minor league stats for 2004. No longer will we have to open separate windows for the Cube and BA (at least, until the next season begins), which means fewer "window not responding" error messages, and thus a generally happier America.
Be amazed by Michael Garciaparra's .242 career batting average! Observe in shock and awe Michael Garciaparra's .314 slugging percentage! Pinch yourself when noticing that Michael Garciaparra has grounded into five times as many double plays as he has hit home runs! Run in horror from Michael Garciaparra's position in the 2001 amateur draft!
And there are a bunch of other players, too.
The fellows over at The Baseball Cube have updated the database to include individual minor league stats for 2004. No longer will we have to open separate windows for the Cube and BA (at least, until the next season begins), which means fewer "window not responding" error messages, and thus a generally happier America.
Be amazed by Michael Garciaparra's .242 career batting average! Observe in shock and awe Michael Garciaparra's .314 slugging percentage! Pinch yourself when noticing that Michael Garciaparra has grounded into five times as many double plays as he has hit home runs! Run in horror from Michael Garciaparra's position in the 2001 amateur draft!
And there are a bunch of other players, too.
Thursday, September 09, 2004
Speaking of Ichiro!, Dayn Perry offers a follow-up piece responding to reader feedback regarding his original Ichiro-isn't-an-MVP-candidate article. His conclusion this time around, in response to the question "What else is expected of an MVP?":
A level of performance that's as high or higher than any other player in the league. Ichiro's good, but he doesn't pass muster with that particular criterion.
Ichiro's 71.2 VORP leads the AL, 2.4 points ahead of Melvin Mora.
It would appear that, to Perry, win shares carry more credibility than VORP in defining a player's overall value; Ichiro's 20 WS have him tied for 10th in the AL, seven off the lead (Sheffield). However, this would be inconsistent with Perry's track record as an analyst, as he has often cited Value Over Replacement Player as his personal metric of choice. See for yourself:
Oakland's Offense
Best Projected Rotations (BP subscription required)
Stars In The East
Jimy's Poison Pen
The Way We Were
...and the list goes on and on. There are plenty more where that came from.
Let's take a closer look at one article in particular. In his piece "Stars In The East", Perry attempts to construct:
...an "All-Star Team" using only Yankees and Red Sox that's better than the team that could be cobbled together using every other team in the league
He goes on to state:
First, some criteria. For each position, I'm selecting the player with the highest Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) from the available pool of players.
Seven months ago, Perry believed that VORP provided the closest approximation of who was the best player under any given conditions (best at his position, best overall player in the league, etc). All of a sudden, when VORP fails to support his belief, Perry ignores the metric in favor of more general statements (such as the fact that Ichiro doesn't hit for much power) that highlight Ichiro!'s weaknesses while downplaying his strengths.
I respect Dayn Perry as both an analyst and a writer, but I'm disappointed with his most recent pieces. As of this moment, Ichiro! is the most deserving of all AL MVP candidates, and I consider it irresponsible journalism to blatantly ignore arguably the most telling and objective statistic when it doesn't agree with the author's opinion.
A level of performance that's as high or higher than any other player in the league. Ichiro's good, but he doesn't pass muster with that particular criterion.
Ichiro's 71.2 VORP leads the AL, 2.4 points ahead of Melvin Mora.
It would appear that, to Perry, win shares carry more credibility than VORP in defining a player's overall value; Ichiro's 20 WS have him tied for 10th in the AL, seven off the lead (Sheffield). However, this would be inconsistent with Perry's track record as an analyst, as he has often cited Value Over Replacement Player as his personal metric of choice. See for yourself:
Oakland's Offense
Best Projected Rotations (BP subscription required)
Stars In The East
Jimy's Poison Pen
The Way We Were
...and the list goes on and on. There are plenty more where that came from.
Let's take a closer look at one article in particular. In his piece "Stars In The East", Perry attempts to construct:
...an "All-Star Team" using only Yankees and Red Sox that's better than the team that could be cobbled together using every other team in the league
He goes on to state:
First, some criteria. For each position, I'm selecting the player with the highest Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) from the available pool of players.
Seven months ago, Perry believed that VORP provided the closest approximation of who was the best player under any given conditions (best at his position, best overall player in the league, etc). All of a sudden, when VORP fails to support his belief, Perry ignores the metric in favor of more general statements (such as the fact that Ichiro doesn't hit for much power) that highlight Ichiro!'s weaknesses while downplaying his strengths.
I respect Dayn Perry as both an analyst and a writer, but I'm disappointed with his most recent pieces. As of this moment, Ichiro! is the most deserving of all AL MVP candidates, and I consider it irresponsible journalism to blatantly ignore arguably the most telling and objective statistic when it doesn't agree with the author's opinion.
One of the things you'll often hear about San Francisco is that no other team depends on a single player as much as the Giants do, that without Barry Bonds, they'd be doomed to a virtually meaningless, irrelevant existence among the Colorados and Cincinattis of the world. Which isn't necessarily untrue by any means - If you were to replace Bonds with a typical minor leaguer, the Giants' record would reverse itself to 64-77. But the statement got me thinking: who relies more on its token superstar, San Francisco or Seattle? After all, the Mariners would be abount 44-94 with a replacement-level bat in right field, also significantly different from the team's present record.
Barry Bonds 2004 VORP: 128.2
Barry Bonds 2004 Win Shares: 42
Giants Total 2004 VORP: 429.5
Giants Total 2004 Win Shares: 219
Barry Bonds % of total team VORP: 29.8
Barry Bonds $ of total team Win Shares: 19.2
Ichiro 2004 VORP: 71.2
Ichiro 2004 Win Shares: 20
Mariners Total 2004 VORP: 312.9
Marinres Total 2004 Win Shares: 153
Ichiro % of total team VORP: 22.8
Ichiro % of total team Win Shares: 13.1
Clearly, Barry Bonds accounts for a greater percentage of San Francisco's total production than Ichiro does Seattle's, but the gap isn't as wide as one would think. Indeed, the Mariners rely on Ichiro more than any other AL team does one player. Still, another thing to consider is the quality of the supporting cast. Do Seattle or San Francisco have other players who are valuable, but whose contributions are overshadowed by the team's best player?
Sum of San Francisco's #2-5 VORP: 138.9
Average: 34.7
Sum of San Francisco's #2-5 WS: 62
Average: 15.5
% of total team VORP from #2-5: 32.3
% of total team WS from #2-5: 28.3
Sum of Seattle's #2-5 VORP: 109.2
Average: 27.3
Sum of Seattle's #2-5 WS: 39
Average: 9.8
% of total team VORP from #2-5: 34.9
% of total team WS from #2-5: 25.5
What this shows us is that both Bonds and Ichiro have had almost equivalent supporting casts, as compared to the total team performance. Thus, given that the teams have relied on their respective supporting casts to similar degrees, we may safely conclude that Barry Bonds is more important to the Giants than Ichiro is to the Mariners - although, sans Bonds, they'd still avoid the cellar.
What's sad is that you could replace Barry Bonds with Jeff Conine, and the Giants would still have the same total team VORP as the Mariners. Another way of looking at this is that Seattle is a Barry Bonds away from contending for the Wild Card. Or, if you prefer a more realistic statement on the condition of the team, you could replace the 2004 Scott Spiezio with the 2004 Alex Rodriguez and the 2004 Raul Ibanez with the 2004 Lance Berkman, and we'd still be fringe contenders. Just a little something to consider when we talk about the impact of signing Carlos Beltran or Adrian Beltre.
Barry Bonds 2004 VORP: 128.2
Barry Bonds 2004 Win Shares: 42
Giants Total 2004 VORP: 429.5
Giants Total 2004 Win Shares: 219
Barry Bonds % of total team VORP: 29.8
Barry Bonds $ of total team Win Shares: 19.2
Ichiro 2004 VORP: 71.2
Ichiro 2004 Win Shares: 20
Mariners Total 2004 VORP: 312.9
Marinres Total 2004 Win Shares: 153
Ichiro % of total team VORP: 22.8
Ichiro % of total team Win Shares: 13.1
Clearly, Barry Bonds accounts for a greater percentage of San Francisco's total production than Ichiro does Seattle's, but the gap isn't as wide as one would think. Indeed, the Mariners rely on Ichiro more than any other AL team does one player. Still, another thing to consider is the quality of the supporting cast. Do Seattle or San Francisco have other players who are valuable, but whose contributions are overshadowed by the team's best player?
Sum of San Francisco's #2-5 VORP: 138.9
Average: 34.7
Sum of San Francisco's #2-5 WS: 62
Average: 15.5
% of total team VORP from #2-5: 32.3
% of total team WS from #2-5: 28.3
Sum of Seattle's #2-5 VORP: 109.2
Average: 27.3
Sum of Seattle's #2-5 WS: 39
Average: 9.8
% of total team VORP from #2-5: 34.9
% of total team WS from #2-5: 25.5
What this shows us is that both Bonds and Ichiro have had almost equivalent supporting casts, as compared to the total team performance. Thus, given that the teams have relied on their respective supporting casts to similar degrees, we may safely conclude that Barry Bonds is more important to the Giants than Ichiro is to the Mariners - although, sans Bonds, they'd still avoid the cellar.
What's sad is that you could replace Barry Bonds with Jeff Conine, and the Giants would still have the same total team VORP as the Mariners. Another way of looking at this is that Seattle is a Barry Bonds away from contending for the Wild Card. Or, if you prefer a more realistic statement on the condition of the team, you could replace the 2004 Scott Spiezio with the 2004 Alex Rodriguez and the 2004 Raul Ibanez with the 2004 Lance Berkman, and we'd still be fringe contenders. Just a little something to consider when we talk about the impact of signing Carlos Beltran or Adrian Beltre.
Skimming through a few of my favorite sites, I came across this piece at RoyalMania that mentions two Mariner minor leaguers, Zapp and Reed. The summaries are brief, and don't really tell us anything that we didn't already know - Zapp's a powerful dude, and Reed could end up as one of those oft-underrated corner outfielders with doubles power - but any report that uses the phrase "poor man's Calvin Pickering" is worth a link.
...actually, it's worth two links, so just in case you missed it the first time, here you go.
...actually, it's worth two links, so just in case you missed it the first time, here you go.
Just two games have reached their conclusion so far this afternoon, but it's already been a historical day. Kansas City beat up on the Tigers 26-5 in the first game of a doubleheader, as Joe Randa went 6-7 with six runs scored and 13 consecutive Royals reached base in an 11-run third inning. Courtesy of Retrosheet, we find out that:
Also, thanks to Redbird Nation for pointing out that this was the first 26-5 final score in the history of baseball.
Also of note is the fact that Lino Urdaneta was charged with six runs without recording an out. A Rule 5 selection last December, Urdaneta spent the year pitching in the minors, putting up a 6.17 combined ERA before getting the call. If anyone is going to allow all six of the hitters he faces to reach base, Urdaneta looked like as good a bet as any coming into the day.
By the way, Detroit is beating Kansas City 6-0 in the sixth inning of the second game at this typing. Can we please stop asking idiotic questions like "How are they going to respond?" after a team gets pummeled? The Mariners continued playing outstanding baseball after the Indians' miraculous comeback in 2001. The Yankees came right back to beat Cleveland after the 22-0 game a few days ago. The Tigers have come out and laid a beating on the Royals just hours after being served their own asses on a silver platter. I think it's safe to assume that these guys are all professionals, and that they're fully capable of putting a disastrous performance behind them and concentrating on the present an future, rather than the past.
For Lino Urdaneta's sake, this had better be true.
- Joe Randa is the fourth player in history to score six runs in a game
- Randa is the *third* player in history to score six runs and record six hits in a game, and the first in the AL
- The 26 runs are the most allowed in Tigers history
- The 13 consecutive baserunners ties a Major League record
- The 26 runs are also the most scored in Kansas City history
Also, thanks to Redbird Nation for pointing out that this was the first 26-5 final score in the history of baseball.
Also of note is the fact that Lino Urdaneta was charged with six runs without recording an out. A Rule 5 selection last December, Urdaneta spent the year pitching in the minors, putting up a 6.17 combined ERA before getting the call. If anyone is going to allow all six of the hitters he faces to reach base, Urdaneta looked like as good a bet as any coming into the day.
By the way, Detroit is beating Kansas City 6-0 in the sixth inning of the second game at this typing. Can we please stop asking idiotic questions like "How are they going to respond?" after a team gets pummeled? The Mariners continued playing outstanding baseball after the Indians' miraculous comeback in 2001. The Yankees came right back to beat Cleveland after the 22-0 game a few days ago. The Tigers have come out and laid a beating on the Royals just hours after being served their own asses on a silver platter. I think it's safe to assume that these guys are all professionals, and that they're fully capable of putting a disastrous performance behind them and concentrating on the present an future, rather than the past.
For Lino Urdaneta's sake, this had better be true.
Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Bucky Jacobsen to the DL; he'll miss the rest of the year after getting arthroscopic knee surgery. He's had this problem for several years, but is only now getting it taken care of.
The plus side to this bit of news is that it gives Melvin the flexibility to put Ibanez at first and play Reed every day, but whether or not he takes advantage of this possibility remains to be seen. Expect a lot more of Spiezio, Bloomquist, and Cabrera.
There's also the slim chance that the organization reconsiders calling up AJ Zapp, now that there's a place for him to play, but doing so would requiring freeing up another spot on the 40-man roster, which they probably don't want to do.
The plus side to this bit of news is that it gives Melvin the flexibility to put Ibanez at first and play Reed every day, but whether or not he takes advantage of this possibility remains to be seen. Expect a lot more of Spiezio, Bloomquist, and Cabrera.
There's also the slim chance that the organization reconsiders calling up AJ Zapp, now that there's a place for him to play, but doing so would requiring freeing up another spot on the 40-man roster, which they probably don't want to do.
Tuesday, September 07, 2004
Players the Mariners have let go:
John Olerud: .312/.393/.419
Rich Aurilia: .270/.345/.392
Quinton McCracken: .291/.337/.417
Mike Myers: Lefties just 1-for-12 since he left
Kevin Jarvis: 6 runs in 2 innings (thankfully)
Players the Mariners have traded:
Freddy Garcia: 4.79 ERA
Pat Borders: 2-for-8
Ben Davis: .264/.296/.473
Dave Hansen: 1-for-15
You want a contribution from an ex-Mariner, claim it, don't trade for it.
Edit: Myers was traded, but the point remains: grab the castoffs.
John Olerud: .312/.393/.419
Rich Aurilia: .270/.345/.392
Quinton McCracken: .291/.337/.417
Mike Myers: Lefties just 1-for-12 since he left
Kevin Jarvis: 6 runs in 2 innings (thankfully)
Players the Mariners have traded:
Freddy Garcia: 4.79 ERA
Pat Borders: 2-for-8
Ben Davis: .264/.296/.473
Dave Hansen: 1-for-15
You want a contribution from an ex-Mariner, claim it, don't trade for it.
Edit: Myers was traded, but the point remains: grab the castoffs.
I got my TV in the mail today. With MLB.tv available on the computer and full cable to my right, I don't think I'll ever leave the room (except for classes).
Anyway, I've got a few more things for you:
First, an interview with Bobby Livingston. Livingston, a 22 year old southpaw, had a solid campaign with high-A Inland Empire, putting up a 3.57 ERA in 186.2 innings while fanning 141. His main attribute, however, is his control - he's walked just 72 hitters in in 445 innings of professional baseball. The owner of an underwhelming repertoire, Livingston succeeds by hitting his spots, and his 2005 performance in AA will make or break his prospect status. A highlight from the brief interview:
ITP: How are you able to keep such a command of the strike zone?
BL: By bullpens and repetition. Also feeling the ball out in front, mechanics, driving the ball to the plate and keeping your balance. I have a really good feel with my pitches. I’m just blessed to be able to have that feel and be able to throw any of them for strikes.
ITP: If you happen to lose the feel for a pitch, how do you get it back?
BL: I have to focus more, even in bullpen sessions. In the bullpen, I don’t throw a slider or a curve, just my fastball and change up because I can throw the breaking ball for a strike without a problem.
The other bit of news is that Bob Melvin won't play the September call-ups very often. To quote the skipper:
"After this series with Cleveland, we play Boston and everyone in the American League West," Melvin said. "We owe it to the league and ourselves to put our best team on the field against teams fighting for the postseason."
Nevermind that slotting Bloomquist, Santiago, or Spiezio into the lineup doesn't exactly constitute putting the best team on the field.
Something else that Melvin says in the article:
"Last year before he got hurt, he was a bit like Rafael Soriano," Melvin said, "a guy we could bring into games late and he'd make hitters miss."
Before Taylor injured himself last year, he had allowed 23 baserunners and 12 runs in 12.2 innings of work for Seattle. He also didn't really act as a setup man, as the Mariners were just 2-8 in games in which Taylor appeared. And, for good measure, only once did Taylor enter a game where the two teams were separated by three runs or fewer, as he spent the majority of his time pitching in games that had already been decided. It isn't that Bob Melvin has a selective memory as much as it is that he's playing make-believe with Taylor's background.
The good news is that Jeremy Reed's call-up to Seattle leaves open the possibility of a unique promotion at Safeco in which fly balls are hit to Reed, Randy Winn, and a randomly selected blind patient from a local hospital, and whoever gets to the ball first is the winner. Fans whose ticket stubs feature the name of the victor receive a complimentary appointment at a nearby optometrist's office, along with a "Get Out Of Jail Free" card good for a single field sobriety test.
Anyway, I've got a few more things for you:
First, an interview with Bobby Livingston. Livingston, a 22 year old southpaw, had a solid campaign with high-A Inland Empire, putting up a 3.57 ERA in 186.2 innings while fanning 141. His main attribute, however, is his control - he's walked just 72 hitters in in 445 innings of professional baseball. The owner of an underwhelming repertoire, Livingston succeeds by hitting his spots, and his 2005 performance in AA will make or break his prospect status. A highlight from the brief interview:
ITP: How are you able to keep such a command of the strike zone?
BL: By bullpens and repetition. Also feeling the ball out in front, mechanics, driving the ball to the plate and keeping your balance. I have a really good feel with my pitches. I’m just blessed to be able to have that feel and be able to throw any of them for strikes.
ITP: If you happen to lose the feel for a pitch, how do you get it back?
BL: I have to focus more, even in bullpen sessions. In the bullpen, I don’t throw a slider or a curve, just my fastball and change up because I can throw the breaking ball for a strike without a problem.
The other bit of news is that Bob Melvin won't play the September call-ups very often. To quote the skipper:
"After this series with Cleveland, we play Boston and everyone in the American League West," Melvin said. "We owe it to the league and ourselves to put our best team on the field against teams fighting for the postseason."
Nevermind that slotting Bloomquist, Santiago, or Spiezio into the lineup doesn't exactly constitute putting the best team on the field.
Something else that Melvin says in the article:
"Last year before he got hurt, he was a bit like Rafael Soriano," Melvin said, "a guy we could bring into games late and he'd make hitters miss."
Before Taylor injured himself last year, he had allowed 23 baserunners and 12 runs in 12.2 innings of work for Seattle. He also didn't really act as a setup man, as the Mariners were just 2-8 in games in which Taylor appeared. And, for good measure, only once did Taylor enter a game where the two teams were separated by three runs or fewer, as he spent the majority of his time pitching in games that had already been decided. It isn't that Bob Melvin has a selective memory as much as it is that he's playing make-believe with Taylor's background.
The good news is that Jeremy Reed's call-up to Seattle leaves open the possibility of a unique promotion at Safeco in which fly balls are hit to Reed, Randy Winn, and a randomly selected blind patient from a local hospital, and whoever gets to the ball first is the winner. Fans whose ticket stubs feature the name of the victor receive a complimentary appointment at a nearby optometrist's office, along with a "Get Out Of Jail Free" card good for a single field sobriety test.
Monday, September 06, 2004
Also, while I'm in sporadic posting mode (to continue until I'm settled and comfortable here), I've got two 2005 free agent lists for you.
1) Peter Gammons' piece
2) Rotoworld's predictions
1) Peter Gammons' piece
2) Rotoworld's predictions
In response to all the emails regarding Kendry Morales workouts. This past Tuesday and Wednesday, Morales played in two games with other Dominican players trying to get signed by major league ballclubs. Over the course of these two games, with between 15-20 ballclubs in attendance, Morales went 7 for 16 with two home runs. He also had a private workout with an unknown team two weeks ago and went 6-8, hitting for the cycle.
No word on if anyone from the Mariners organization attended the workout or if they have scheduled a private workout.
No word on if anyone from the Mariners organization attended the workout or if they have scheduled a private workout.
A few notes:
John Hickey mentions potential September call-ups at the foot of his article. Aaron Taylor will be coming up, Jeremy Reed could be, and Felix Hernandez almost certainly *won't*. The Cryptic Quote Of The Day comes from Bob Melvin:
Four players total are expected to be called up, including what Melvin called "one that will surprise you."
Other than speculation regarding AJ Zapp and Greg Jacobs, there isn't much of a hint about who that surprising promotion will be.
The other note is that Jimy Williams is looking at our minor leaguers. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be important - just another scout offering his opinions on the Missions' roster - but a handy rule of thumb is that any franchise looking to Jimy Williams for advice is in dire straits.
John Hickey mentions potential September call-ups at the foot of his article. Aaron Taylor will be coming up, Jeremy Reed could be, and Felix Hernandez almost certainly *won't*. The Cryptic Quote Of The Day comes from Bob Melvin:
Four players total are expected to be called up, including what Melvin called "one that will surprise you."
Other than speculation regarding AJ Zapp and Greg Jacobs, there isn't much of a hint about who that surprising promotion will be.
The other note is that Jimy Williams is looking at our minor leaguers. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be important - just another scout offering his opinions on the Missions' roster - but a handy rule of thumb is that any franchise looking to Jimy Williams for advice is in dire straits.
Minor League Wrap-Up:
Tucson smashed Tacoma, 11-2. Bryan Ward wasn't as bad as the final score would indicate, but that doesn't really let him off the hook as he went five mediocre innings giving up four runs (two earned) on seven hits. With the exception of Rene Rivera's homerun, the Rainier offense never really posed a threat tonight. Notables:
Bryan Ward: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
A.J. Zapp: 1-4.
Ryan Christianson: 1-4.
Greg Jacobs: 0-2.
Rene Rivera: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI.
Josh Ellison: 1-3.
Round Rock followed Tucson's suit and destroyed San Antonio, 12-2. Chris Key was absolutely lit up tonight as he lasted only two innings and was punished on almost every pitch. The Missions did manage ten hits with one of those end-of-the-season-so-let's-mix-it-up kind of lineups. Notables:
Chris Key: 2.0 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR.
Rob Gandolfo: 3-5.
Shin-soo Choo: 2-4, 1 BB.
T.J. Bohn: 1-4.
Brian Moon: 0-5.
B.J. Garbe: 2-4.
Inland Empire shutout Rancho Cucamonga, 5-0. More brilliance for Thomas Oldham as he was fantastic in his six innings of work. Wladimir Balentein and Jesus Guzman homered and Carlos Arroyo tripled to lead the 66'er offense. Notables:
Thomas Oldham: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K.
Juan Gonzalez: 0-3.
Jesus Guzman: 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI.
Carlos Arroyo: 1-4, 1 triple.
Wladimir Balentein: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI.
Michael Garciaparra: 1-3, 1 RBI.
Fort Wayne edged Wisconsin, 6-5 (10). Jason Mackintosh wasn't bad...and that's about all you can say about his performance. Adam Jones flashed some power and homered to the Rattlers in the losing effort. Notables:
Jason Mackintosh: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Josh Womack: 1-4, 1 double.
Adam Jones: 2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI.
Bryan LaHair: 2-4, 1 double.
Chris Collins: 1-3, 1 RBI.
Everett slammed Salem-Keizer in their season finale, 15-5. How about a little Oswaldo Navarro? Navarro went 4-6 with a couple doubles and a homerun (four on the night for Sox batters) as Everett finally took the game home in the seventh with a four run inning that put it out of reach for Salem. Aaron Jensen wasn't real impressive, but obviously it didn't matter much. Nice way to go out for the Aquasox. Notables:
Aaron Jensen: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
Oswaldo Navarro: 4-6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-3.
Elvis Cruz: 2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI.
Brandon Green: 1-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
Asdrubal Cabrera: 2-5, 1 RBI.
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 1-2, 3 BB.
Tucson smashed Tacoma, 11-2. Bryan Ward wasn't as bad as the final score would indicate, but that doesn't really let him off the hook as he went five mediocre innings giving up four runs (two earned) on seven hits. With the exception of Rene Rivera's homerun, the Rainier offense never really posed a threat tonight. Notables:
Bryan Ward: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
A.J. Zapp: 1-4.
Ryan Christianson: 1-4.
Greg Jacobs: 0-2.
Rene Rivera: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI.
Josh Ellison: 1-3.
Round Rock followed Tucson's suit and destroyed San Antonio, 12-2. Chris Key was absolutely lit up tonight as he lasted only two innings and was punished on almost every pitch. The Missions did manage ten hits with one of those end-of-the-season-so-let's-mix-it-up kind of lineups. Notables:
Chris Key: 2.0 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR.
Rob Gandolfo: 3-5.
Shin-soo Choo: 2-4, 1 BB.
T.J. Bohn: 1-4.
Brian Moon: 0-5.
B.J. Garbe: 2-4.
Inland Empire shutout Rancho Cucamonga, 5-0. More brilliance for Thomas Oldham as he was fantastic in his six innings of work. Wladimir Balentein and Jesus Guzman homered and Carlos Arroyo tripled to lead the 66'er offense. Notables:
Thomas Oldham: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K.
Juan Gonzalez: 0-3.
Jesus Guzman: 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI.
Carlos Arroyo: 1-4, 1 triple.
Wladimir Balentein: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI.
Michael Garciaparra: 1-3, 1 RBI.
Fort Wayne edged Wisconsin, 6-5 (10). Jason Mackintosh wasn't bad...and that's about all you can say about his performance. Adam Jones flashed some power and homered to the Rattlers in the losing effort. Notables:
Jason Mackintosh: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Josh Womack: 1-4, 1 double.
Adam Jones: 2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI.
Bryan LaHair: 2-4, 1 double.
Chris Collins: 1-3, 1 RBI.
Everett slammed Salem-Keizer in their season finale, 15-5. How about a little Oswaldo Navarro? Navarro went 4-6 with a couple doubles and a homerun (four on the night for Sox batters) as Everett finally took the game home in the seventh with a four run inning that put it out of reach for Salem. Aaron Jensen wasn't real impressive, but obviously it didn't matter much. Nice way to go out for the Aquasox. Notables:
Aaron Jensen: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
Oswaldo Navarro: 4-6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-3.
Elvis Cruz: 2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI.
Brandon Green: 1-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
Asdrubal Cabrera: 2-5, 1 RBI.
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 1-2, 3 BB.
Sunday, September 05, 2004
I've arrived in Hartford, and am in the process of unpacking. In the meantime, here's your AL MVP race, as decided by VORP (as of yesterday, prior to Ichiro's 5-for-5 effort):
1. Melvin Mora: 67.8
2. Ichiro Suzuki: 67.0
3. Carlos Guillen: 66.2
4. Vladimir Guerrero: 65.1
5. Miguel Tejada: 64.9
6. Travis Hafner: 64.0
7. Manny Ramirez: 61.4
8. Gary Sheffield: 61.0
9. David Ortiz: 58.5
10. Ivan Rodriguez: 56.4
You have to go to #4 to find a player on a contender, and #7 to find a player on a team likely to go to the playoffs.
If you include yesterday, Ichiro is probably leading the American League.
1. Melvin Mora: 67.8
2. Ichiro Suzuki: 67.0
3. Carlos Guillen: 66.2
4. Vladimir Guerrero: 65.1
5. Miguel Tejada: 64.9
6. Travis Hafner: 64.0
7. Manny Ramirez: 61.4
8. Gary Sheffield: 61.0
9. David Ortiz: 58.5
10. Ivan Rodriguez: 56.4
You have to go to #4 to find a player on a contender, and #7 to find a player on a team likely to go to the playoffs.
If you include yesterday, Ichiro is probably leading the American League.
Saturday, September 04, 2004
Minor League Wrap-Up:
Tacoma stomped on Tucson, 8-2. Gustavo Martinez was solid, albeit wild, in his six innings of work as Greg Jacobs had three hits and an equal number of RBI to lead the Rainier assault. Notables:
Gustavo Martinez: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 5 K.
Jeremy Reed: 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
A.J. Zapp: 1-4, 1 double.
Ryan Christianson: 1-5, 1 double.
Greg Jacobs: 3-4, 3 RBI.
Rene Rivera: 1-4, 1 double.
Greg Dobbs: 1-4.
Round Rock trampled San Antonio, 13-6. Phil Devey continued his bad stretch with yet another dismal start as he only went three innings while surrendering seven runs. Shin-soo Choo had three hits and John Lindsey smack two doubles to lead the Mission offense. Notables:
Phil Devey: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
Dustin Delucchi: 0-3.
Shin-soo Choo: 3-5, 1 double.
John Lindsey: 2-4, 2 2B, 1 BB, 2 RBI.
T.J. Bohn: 2-5, 1 double.
Jamie Bubela: 1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI.
Inland Empire beat Rancho Cucamonga, 6-1. Nice start for Jon Huber as he went six innings en route to his fourth win. Jesus Guzman and Jon Nelson both had multi-hit and RBI nights to stand out for the 66'ers. Notables:
Jon Huber: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
Juan Gonzalez: 1-3, 1 double.
Jesus Guzman: 2-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 R.
Jon Nelson: 2-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Carlos Arroyo: 1-4.
Wladimir Balentein: 0-3, 1 BB.
Michael Garciaparra: 1-4, 1 double.
Fort Wayne hammered Wisconsin, 13-2. For the second time in as many nights the Rattler pitching was hit hard as starter Brian Stitt gave up fourteen basehits in only 5.2 innings work. Like last night, the offense was a non-issue. Notables:
Brian Stitt: 5.2 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K.
Josh Womack: 0-4.
Adam Jones: 1-3.
Bryan LaHair: 0-2.
Justin Ruchti: 0-3, 3 K.
Everett routed Salem-Keizer, 8-1. Another excellent start for Jason Snyder who has had a very solid year in Everett. Marshall Hubbard as his four hit performance help lead the Aquasox offense. Notables:
Jason Snyder: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR.
Casey Craig: 0-4, 4 K.
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-4, 1 RBI.
Marshall Hubbard: 4-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Asdrubal Cabrera: 2-4, 1 RBI.
Mike Wilson: 1-4, 1 2B, 3 RBI.
Omar Falcon: 0-4.
Tacoma stomped on Tucson, 8-2. Gustavo Martinez was solid, albeit wild, in his six innings of work as Greg Jacobs had three hits and an equal number of RBI to lead the Rainier assault. Notables:
Gustavo Martinez: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 5 K.
Jeremy Reed: 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
A.J. Zapp: 1-4, 1 double.
Ryan Christianson: 1-5, 1 double.
Greg Jacobs: 3-4, 3 RBI.
Rene Rivera: 1-4, 1 double.
Greg Dobbs: 1-4.
Round Rock trampled San Antonio, 13-6. Phil Devey continued his bad stretch with yet another dismal start as he only went three innings while surrendering seven runs. Shin-soo Choo had three hits and John Lindsey smack two doubles to lead the Mission offense. Notables:
Phil Devey: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
Dustin Delucchi: 0-3.
Shin-soo Choo: 3-5, 1 double.
John Lindsey: 2-4, 2 2B, 1 BB, 2 RBI.
T.J. Bohn: 2-5, 1 double.
Jamie Bubela: 1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI.
Inland Empire beat Rancho Cucamonga, 6-1. Nice start for Jon Huber as he went six innings en route to his fourth win. Jesus Guzman and Jon Nelson both had multi-hit and RBI nights to stand out for the 66'ers. Notables:
Jon Huber: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
Juan Gonzalez: 1-3, 1 double.
Jesus Guzman: 2-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 R.
Jon Nelson: 2-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Carlos Arroyo: 1-4.
Wladimir Balentein: 0-3, 1 BB.
Michael Garciaparra: 1-4, 1 double.
Fort Wayne hammered Wisconsin, 13-2. For the second time in as many nights the Rattler pitching was hit hard as starter Brian Stitt gave up fourteen basehits in only 5.2 innings work. Like last night, the offense was a non-issue. Notables:
Brian Stitt: 5.2 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K.
Josh Womack: 0-4.
Adam Jones: 1-3.
Bryan LaHair: 0-2.
Justin Ruchti: 0-3, 3 K.
Everett routed Salem-Keizer, 8-1. Another excellent start for Jason Snyder who has had a very solid year in Everett. Marshall Hubbard as his four hit performance help lead the Aquasox offense. Notables:
Jason Snyder: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR.
Casey Craig: 0-4, 4 K.
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-4, 1 RBI.
Marshall Hubbard: 4-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Asdrubal Cabrera: 2-4, 1 RBI.
Mike Wilson: 1-4, 1 2B, 3 RBI.
Omar Falcon: 0-4.
Friday, September 03, 2004
It appears that Blackley's injury might not be as severe as originally reported on USS Mariner, as an MRI disclosed tendinitis in his pitching shoulder. If I was Travis, I'd get a second opinion, despite the outstanding track record of the M's medical staff.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Sean Burroughs may be on his way out in San Diego. He was informed yesterday that he is now in a platoon role with ex-Mariner Rich Aurilia, (.292/.373/.431 since joining the Padres) despite posting a .296/.346/.358 line for the season. The knock on Burroughs is that he has not developed the power many thought he would, although at just 23, there is still plenty of time for it to show up. Burrough's is definitely the type of player you can take a risk on, as the reward could be extremely high. If the M's are unable to get Beltre this off-season, would anyone be upset with a Gil Meche for Sean Burroughs swap?
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Sean Burroughs may be on his way out in San Diego. He was informed yesterday that he is now in a platoon role with ex-Mariner Rich Aurilia, (.292/.373/.431 since joining the Padres) despite posting a .296/.346/.358 line for the season. The knock on Burroughs is that he has not developed the power many thought he would, although at just 23, there is still plenty of time for it to show up. Burrough's is definitely the type of player you can take a risk on, as the reward could be extremely high. If the M's are unable to get Beltre this off-season, would anyone be upset with a Gil Meche for Sean Burroughs swap?
Minor League Wrap-Up:
Tacoma beat up on Sacramento, 7-2. Craig Anderson finally had a respectable start as he went 5.1 innings to pick up his fourth win. At the plate, A.J. Zapp homered and knocked in three runs and Jeremy Reed had two hits. Notables:
Craig Anderson: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
Jeremy Reed: 2-4, 1 RBI.
A.J. Zapp: 1-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 RBI.
Ryan Christianson: 0-3, 3 K.
Greg Jacobs: 1-4.
San Antonio thrashed Round Rock, 8-1. The Missions jumped out to an early lead thanks to a four-run first inning. Rich Dorman was on cruise control for the rest of the game as was Chris Key who finished off the final four innings for the save. Four Missions went deep in the game as everyone except the 8-9 hitters managed at least one baseknock. Notables:
Rich Dorman: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K.
Dustin Delucchi: 1-4.
Shin-soo Choo: 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R.
John Lindsey: 3-4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI.
T.J. Bohn: 1-4, 1 homer.
Brian Moon: 1-4, 1 double.
Lancaster creamed Inland Empire, 12-4. Bobby Livingston was roughed up in his five innings of work tonight and Greg Wear did exactly what everyone thought he would do (read: sucked ass) as Lancaster had no problem routing the 66'ers. Wladimir Balentein homered in the losing effort. Notables:
Bobby Livingston: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
Juan Gonzalez: 2-4, 1 double.
Jesus Guzman: 0-2, 1 BB.
Carlos Arroyo: 0-4.
Wladimir Balentein: 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
Michael Garciaparra: 2-4, 1 double.
Peoria embarrassed Wisconsin, 20-7. When you have guys like Casey Abrams starting the game, hilarity is about to ensue. Wisconsin was out of this one by the third as they were down 10-4 at that point. But for Peoria, apparently six run leads just aren't enough as they unloaded ten more runs in the sixth inning in what was a laughable campaign for Rattler pitchers. Adam Jones had three hits tonight...but does it even matter? Wow. Notables:
Casey "Cut Me!" Abrams: 1.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR.
The rest of the Wisconsin pen: 6.1 IP, 13 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
Josh Womack: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 BB.
Nick Orlandos: 2-4, 2 RBI.
Adam Jones: 3-5, 1 2B, 3 RBI.
Bryan LaHair: 1-4.
Justin Ruchti: 0-4.
Salem-Keizer beat Everett, 10-2. Phil Cullen was bad, Roman Martinez was atrocious and Kendall Bergdall was horrific. Put them together with a pedestrian offensive effort and you get tonight's game. How enjoyable. Notables:
Phil Cullen: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K.
Oswaldo Navarro: 2-3.
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-4.
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 0-3. (Talk about falling off the face of the earth.)
Brian Schweiger: 0-2, 2 BB.
Tacoma beat up on Sacramento, 7-2. Craig Anderson finally had a respectable start as he went 5.1 innings to pick up his fourth win. At the plate, A.J. Zapp homered and knocked in three runs and Jeremy Reed had two hits. Notables:
Craig Anderson: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
Jeremy Reed: 2-4, 1 RBI.
A.J. Zapp: 1-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 RBI.
Ryan Christianson: 0-3, 3 K.
Greg Jacobs: 1-4.
San Antonio thrashed Round Rock, 8-1. The Missions jumped out to an early lead thanks to a four-run first inning. Rich Dorman was on cruise control for the rest of the game as was Chris Key who finished off the final four innings for the save. Four Missions went deep in the game as everyone except the 8-9 hitters managed at least one baseknock. Notables:
Rich Dorman: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K.
Dustin Delucchi: 1-4.
Shin-soo Choo: 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R.
John Lindsey: 3-4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI.
T.J. Bohn: 1-4, 1 homer.
Brian Moon: 1-4, 1 double.
Lancaster creamed Inland Empire, 12-4. Bobby Livingston was roughed up in his five innings of work tonight and Greg Wear did exactly what everyone thought he would do (read: sucked ass) as Lancaster had no problem routing the 66'ers. Wladimir Balentein homered in the losing effort. Notables:
Bobby Livingston: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
Juan Gonzalez: 2-4, 1 double.
Jesus Guzman: 0-2, 1 BB.
Carlos Arroyo: 0-4.
Wladimir Balentein: 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI.
Michael Garciaparra: 2-4, 1 double.
Peoria embarrassed Wisconsin, 20-7. When you have guys like Casey Abrams starting the game, hilarity is about to ensue. Wisconsin was out of this one by the third as they were down 10-4 at that point. But for Peoria, apparently six run leads just aren't enough as they unloaded ten more runs in the sixth inning in what was a laughable campaign for Rattler pitchers. Adam Jones had three hits tonight...but does it even matter? Wow. Notables:
Casey "Cut Me!" Abrams: 1.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR.
The rest of the Wisconsin pen: 6.1 IP, 13 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
Josh Womack: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 BB.
Nick Orlandos: 2-4, 2 RBI.
Adam Jones: 3-5, 1 2B, 3 RBI.
Bryan LaHair: 1-4.
Justin Ruchti: 0-4.
Salem-Keizer beat Everett, 10-2. Phil Cullen was bad, Roman Martinez was atrocious and Kendall Bergdall was horrific. Put them together with a pedestrian offensive effort and you get tonight's game. How enjoyable. Notables:
Phil Cullen: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K.
Oswaldo Navarro: 2-3.
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-4.
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 0-3. (Talk about falling off the face of the earth.)
Brian Schweiger: 0-2, 2 BB.
Wednesday, September 01, 2004
I know I will get chastised for this by all you Meche fans out there, but seriously, do you really think that he is ready to be a full time contributor next season in the rotation? Since his return, he is 3-0, which looks great on paper. But in those six starts (39 innings), he is averaging 113.8 pitches in 6.5 innings, which looks bad on paper. Meche is still struggling with his command but has been extremely lucky or fortunate (whichever you prefer), but eventually, his inability to stay in the strike zone will catch up with him. Not to mention the additional stress it is putting on an already stressed bullpen. This is one blogger that would like to see Meche dealt for the best possible deal this off-season.
Another interesting note. Thumbing through ESPN the magazine I stumbled upon an interesting tidbit of information. St. Louis Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty is a free agent this winter, as he and Tony LaRussa have yet to be offered contract extensions by the Cardinals. Just food for thought.
Another interesting note. Thumbing through ESPN the magazine I stumbled upon an interesting tidbit of information. St. Louis Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty is a free agent this winter, as he and Tony LaRussa have yet to be offered contract extensions by the Cardinals. Just food for thought.
It’s time to answer some more reader questions, and since the majority of the questions were focused on 2005, I’m going to combine them into one post.
Being that I think the M's FO is shining all of us on the payroll this year and will most definitely do so in '05 I'd love to see what "bargains" are available on the FA market. I think VORP versus expected # of suitors would isolate bargains. This is huge not just because the M's are so parsimonious but also due to the fact their cost per win will be close to the highest in the majors this year.
--------
If you were the GM of the Mariners, which direction do you take the M’s in 2005? What areas of the team would you center your focus and what areas of the team are you happy with?
(Plus others. If I didn’t post your question, it doesn’t mean I didn’t like it or didn't read it, it just meant that in order to save room, I picked the most recent questions)
For the most part, all the questions I received over the past week or so focused on which direction the M’s are heading in and which free agents they should sign. Truth be told, I have no idea what direction this organization is headed and I’m not sure the people in the front office have a firm understanding either. The fan in me wants to believe that this season was a hiccup, a small blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things. But the realist in me sees a team who hasn’t learned a damn thing from their horrible season, indicated in them beginning to entertain the idea of a 2005 Ron Villone Seattle tour, which excites me in the same way as a Gilbert Godfried, Carrot Top and Wanda Sykes comedy tour. I firmly believe that Bavasi was under some form of orders to trade Cirillo for whatever he could get. Same goes for Guillen. Raul Ibanez was offered a contract before Bavasi was even hired, so, depending on which side of the fence you are currently standing on, he can’t be given credit for or chastised for that signing. What he did do was sign Scott Spiezio (to a horrible contract), Eddie Guardado, Ron Villone, Mike Myers and trade for Jolbert Cabrera and Quinton McCracken. Not exactly something you would want to stick on your mother’s refrigerator or put on a job application. Bavasi was able to receive a king’s ransom (Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Michael Morse) for Freddy Garcia, flashing what might possibly be rays of hope.
This year’s crop of FA might be one of the riskiest groups in recent memory. The majority of the FA some form of strings attached or in some cases 15 lb fishing line attached. That being said, the two players I would like to see in Mariner jerseys next season are Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre. Richie Sexson and J.D. Drew are excellent fall back plans. Carlos Delgado and Magglio Ordonez should be avoided at all costs. Obviously the focus needs to be on 1B, 3B, SS, OF, one SP and some bullpen work. Below is a brief synopsis of the players I feel should be 1-4 on the M’s wish list.
The filet mignon of the free agent crop has to Carlos Beltran. Beltran has put up another stellar season with a .272/.368/.569 line, with 35 HR, 95 RBI’s, and 33 SB’s. Oh and did I mention he switched leagues mid-season and has a legitimate shot at becoming a 40/40 player? Combine that with a 71/79 BB/K ratio and Gold Glove caliber defense, it’s no wonder teams will be lining up for his services. Beltran shouldn’t be making more than Vlad Guerrero, but after all the dust settles and the Yankees and Red Sox have finished their pissing match, he will. In reality, fair market value should be around the 8 year $90 million offer the Cardinals gave Scott Rolen, (not that I’m advocating that length of contract). Both play premium positions, both play Gold Glove caliber defense, both swing a good bat. What Carlos does on the base paths, Rolen compensates by knocking in a few more runs. Beltran would be a perfect fit for the Mariners as they build for 2005 and beyond, but I just don’t see it happening.
Questions abound about Adrian Beltre. Does he reek of a fluke or the sweet smell of finally fulfilling the potential everyone thought he had 6 years ago? Someone is going to have to pay to find out and early indications have the M’s willing to take a chance to see if this is the real Adrian Beltre. Beltre has developed into one of the best offensive players in baseball and doing it while playing half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Beltre has a legitimate shot at 50 HR and will do so playing Gold Glove defense. Much like Beltran, Beltre will be searching for big time money over a long period of time. Beltre is entering his prime at the ripe age of 25 and any team that signs him will be paying him for at least the majority of his prime years. Chances of Beltre joining the M’s are better than Beltran at this point.
Richie Sexson and J.D. Drew are both equally risky players. Richie Sexson is recovering from shoulder surgery and played in only 23 games for the D-Backs this season. Sexson on the other hand, is recovering from surgery from an injury that plagued Jeff Bagwell and Shawn Green for the past two years, which means he should be in good shape once the season starts. J.D. Drew is having the best season of his pro career but there are still worries about the condition of his knees, which suffer from the same arthritic condition that ultimately forced Mark McGwire into retirement. Drew’s line for the season .307/.419/.580 is absolutely phenomenal and has hit 29 HR with 81 RBI with an 81/84 BB/K ratio. Add to the equation that Drew is left handed he would be a great addition to the club in right field next season.**
The question was asked about potential bargains of the 2005 draft class. With the current baseball economy, I think the true bargains of the FA class will be the big name players. Two years ago, would anyone believe me if I told you that one of the last outfielders to sign a FA contract in 2004 would be Vlad Guerrero for an average of $15 million per season, who would have believed me? The fact is, teams are looking for bargains more today than they were a few years ago. Players that might have been bargains a few years ago are being overpaid in this new market, as more teams are actively searching for a cheaper alternative to the big name stars. The result of this trend will cause "star" players contracts to shrink over time as teams who may have been interested in or had a need for a star player have subsequently spent their resources on a mid-tier free agent. With teams looking to consolidate their budgets, this upcoming offseason could be a positive one for the M's if they can utilize patience and not join the rest of the Joneses in their pursuit of mid-tier talent. With that being said, there are a few players that stand out as we look ahead toward 2005 that I think have the potential to be bargains this off-season:
~Odalis Perez – Over looked by many when they view the FA pitchers available this winter, but I think Perez should be at the top of the Mariners list. A LHP with a low 90’s fast ball, good curve and change.
~Paul Shuey – missed the 2004 season following hip surgery and a ruptured thumb ligament. For a team in desperate need of bullpen help, Shuey would fill a major need and will probably come on the cheap as well.
~Frank Catalanotto – Over the past three seasons has compiled a .306/.369/.474 line. Has played the OF primarily since 2003, but with the Tigers and Rangers played 1B, 2B, 3B as well.
~Steve Kline – Much like Paul Shuey, this teams need quality bullpen arms and will have to look outside of the organization this winter to find them.
~Jose Valentin – Heh, just kidding.
~Brad Wilkerson – he isn’t a free agent, but he broke off contract negotiations with the Expos the other day and instead stated a desire to take the team to arbitration. It’s a situation to watch, as Wilkerson may become available this winter.
That’s about all I got for this extremely long winded post and I know that I have left off players who should be considered as bargains. It is still premature to think about the off-season, when so much is still left to be determined. But it’s always fun to start thinking towards the future.
**On the pre-game show, Finnigan was discussing the Ichiro situation for next year. Said the team will like to talk to Beltran and Boras first, but he alluded to Ichiro shifting to center field in 2005. Winn would then be moved to LF. He didn’t mention Ibanez, but we can all assume that he will probably shift to 1B or DH. This is definitely good news if the team actually follows through on talking to Beltran and Boras, and then moving Ichiro to CF if they can’t get Beltran in Seattle.
Being that I think the M's FO is shining all of us on the payroll this year and will most definitely do so in '05 I'd love to see what "bargains" are available on the FA market. I think VORP versus expected # of suitors would isolate bargains. This is huge not just because the M's are so parsimonious but also due to the fact their cost per win will be close to the highest in the majors this year.
--------
If you were the GM of the Mariners, which direction do you take the M’s in 2005? What areas of the team would you center your focus and what areas of the team are you happy with?
(Plus others. If I didn’t post your question, it doesn’t mean I didn’t like it or didn't read it, it just meant that in order to save room, I picked the most recent questions)
For the most part, all the questions I received over the past week or so focused on which direction the M’s are heading in and which free agents they should sign. Truth be told, I have no idea what direction this organization is headed and I’m not sure the people in the front office have a firm understanding either. The fan in me wants to believe that this season was a hiccup, a small blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things. But the realist in me sees a team who hasn’t learned a damn thing from their horrible season, indicated in them beginning to entertain the idea of a 2005 Ron Villone Seattle tour, which excites me in the same way as a Gilbert Godfried, Carrot Top and Wanda Sykes comedy tour. I firmly believe that Bavasi was under some form of orders to trade Cirillo for whatever he could get. Same goes for Guillen. Raul Ibanez was offered a contract before Bavasi was even hired, so, depending on which side of the fence you are currently standing on, he can’t be given credit for or chastised for that signing. What he did do was sign Scott Spiezio (to a horrible contract), Eddie Guardado, Ron Villone, Mike Myers and trade for Jolbert Cabrera and Quinton McCracken. Not exactly something you would want to stick on your mother’s refrigerator or put on a job application. Bavasi was able to receive a king’s ransom (Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Michael Morse) for Freddy Garcia, flashing what might possibly be rays of hope.
This year’s crop of FA might be one of the riskiest groups in recent memory. The majority of the FA some form of strings attached or in some cases 15 lb fishing line attached. That being said, the two players I would like to see in Mariner jerseys next season are Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre. Richie Sexson and J.D. Drew are excellent fall back plans. Carlos Delgado and Magglio Ordonez should be avoided at all costs. Obviously the focus needs to be on 1B, 3B, SS, OF, one SP and some bullpen work. Below is a brief synopsis of the players I feel should be 1-4 on the M’s wish list.
The filet mignon of the free agent crop has to Carlos Beltran. Beltran has put up another stellar season with a .272/.368/.569 line, with 35 HR, 95 RBI’s, and 33 SB’s. Oh and did I mention he switched leagues mid-season and has a legitimate shot at becoming a 40/40 player? Combine that with a 71/79 BB/K ratio and Gold Glove caliber defense, it’s no wonder teams will be lining up for his services. Beltran shouldn’t be making more than Vlad Guerrero, but after all the dust settles and the Yankees and Red Sox have finished their pissing match, he will. In reality, fair market value should be around the 8 year $90 million offer the Cardinals gave Scott Rolen, (not that I’m advocating that length of contract). Both play premium positions, both play Gold Glove caliber defense, both swing a good bat. What Carlos does on the base paths, Rolen compensates by knocking in a few more runs. Beltran would be a perfect fit for the Mariners as they build for 2005 and beyond, but I just don’t see it happening.
Questions abound about Adrian Beltre. Does he reek of a fluke or the sweet smell of finally fulfilling the potential everyone thought he had 6 years ago? Someone is going to have to pay to find out and early indications have the M’s willing to take a chance to see if this is the real Adrian Beltre. Beltre has developed into one of the best offensive players in baseball and doing it while playing half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Beltre has a legitimate shot at 50 HR and will do so playing Gold Glove defense. Much like Beltran, Beltre will be searching for big time money over a long period of time. Beltre is entering his prime at the ripe age of 25 and any team that signs him will be paying him for at least the majority of his prime years. Chances of Beltre joining the M’s are better than Beltran at this point.
Richie Sexson and J.D. Drew are both equally risky players. Richie Sexson is recovering from shoulder surgery and played in only 23 games for the D-Backs this season. Sexson on the other hand, is recovering from surgery from an injury that plagued Jeff Bagwell and Shawn Green for the past two years, which means he should be in good shape once the season starts. J.D. Drew is having the best season of his pro career but there are still worries about the condition of his knees, which suffer from the same arthritic condition that ultimately forced Mark McGwire into retirement. Drew’s line for the season .307/.419/.580 is absolutely phenomenal and has hit 29 HR with 81 RBI with an 81/84 BB/K ratio. Add to the equation that Drew is left handed he would be a great addition to the club in right field next season.**
The question was asked about potential bargains of the 2005 draft class. With the current baseball economy, I think the true bargains of the FA class will be the big name players. Two years ago, would anyone believe me if I told you that one of the last outfielders to sign a FA contract in 2004 would be Vlad Guerrero for an average of $15 million per season, who would have believed me? The fact is, teams are looking for bargains more today than they were a few years ago. Players that might have been bargains a few years ago are being overpaid in this new market, as more teams are actively searching for a cheaper alternative to the big name stars. The result of this trend will cause "star" players contracts to shrink over time as teams who may have been interested in or had a need for a star player have subsequently spent their resources on a mid-tier free agent. With teams looking to consolidate their budgets, this upcoming offseason could be a positive one for the M's if they can utilize patience and not join the rest of the Joneses in their pursuit of mid-tier talent. With that being said, there are a few players that stand out as we look ahead toward 2005 that I think have the potential to be bargains this off-season:
~Odalis Perez – Over looked by many when they view the FA pitchers available this winter, but I think Perez should be at the top of the Mariners list. A LHP with a low 90’s fast ball, good curve and change.
~Paul Shuey – missed the 2004 season following hip surgery and a ruptured thumb ligament. For a team in desperate need of bullpen help, Shuey would fill a major need and will probably come on the cheap as well.
~Frank Catalanotto – Over the past three seasons has compiled a .306/.369/.474 line. Has played the OF primarily since 2003, but with the Tigers and Rangers played 1B, 2B, 3B as well.
~Steve Kline – Much like Paul Shuey, this teams need quality bullpen arms and will have to look outside of the organization this winter to find them.
~Jose Valentin – Heh, just kidding.
~Brad Wilkerson – he isn’t a free agent, but he broke off contract negotiations with the Expos the other day and instead stated a desire to take the team to arbitration. It’s a situation to watch, as Wilkerson may become available this winter.
That’s about all I got for this extremely long winded post and I know that I have left off players who should be considered as bargains. It is still premature to think about the off-season, when so much is still left to be determined. But it’s always fun to start thinking towards the future.
**On the pre-game show, Finnigan was discussing the Ichiro situation for next year. Said the team will like to talk to Beltran and Boras first, but he alluded to Ichiro shifting to center field in 2005. Winn would then be moved to LF. He didn’t mention Ibanez, but we can all assume that he will probably shift to 1B or DH. This is definitely good news if the team actually follows through on talking to Beltran and Boras, and then moving Ichiro to CF if they can’t get Beltran in Seattle.
Please welcome Masao Kida.
Seattle Mariners Executive Vice President & General Manager of Baseball Operations Bill Bavasi announced today that the Mariners have claimed right-handed pitcher Masao Kida off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers...Kida is expected to join the Mariners in Toronto prior to tomorrow night's game.
Historical Stats
2004 Stats (also tossed 4.2 scoreless innings with the Dodgers)
Kida is a 35 (36 in two weeks) year old righty who spent ten years in Japan, having moderate success with Yomiuri and Orix, before coming over to join the Tigers. His repertoire is limited to a straight fastball that hits the low-90s and an inconsistent curveball and changeup that seldom find the strike zone. He hasn't been able to miss many bats in either the Majors nor the minors, with his pitches being quite hittable when they're over the plate. There's no reason to believe that Kida will succeed, given his (at best) spotty track record, but a 35 year old warm body has some value to a team that wants to keep its remaining pitching prospects healthy in September.
Seattle Mariners Executive Vice President & General Manager of Baseball Operations Bill Bavasi announced today that the Mariners have claimed right-handed pitcher Masao Kida off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers...Kida is expected to join the Mariners in Toronto prior to tomorrow night's game.
Historical Stats
2004 Stats (also tossed 4.2 scoreless innings with the Dodgers)
Kida is a 35 (36 in two weeks) year old righty who spent ten years in Japan, having moderate success with Yomiuri and Orix, before coming over to join the Tigers. His repertoire is limited to a straight fastball that hits the low-90s and an inconsistent curveball and changeup that seldom find the strike zone. He hasn't been able to miss many bats in either the Majors nor the minors, with his pitches being quite hittable when they're over the plate. There's no reason to believe that Kida will succeed, given his (at best) spotty track record, but a 35 year old warm body has some value to a team that wants to keep its remaining pitching prospects healthy in September.
For the next several days, I will be spending a lot of my time packing and performing various other tedious college- and moving-related activities. As such, longer posts - like game recaps - will be postponed until further notice, although I intend to drop by and offer my thoughts as current events deem necessary. As a bit of more bad news, the move back east will mean that M's games end after my bedtime, which could present a problem. Nevertheless, I dealt with the same issue back in April and May, so we'll see how things turn out.
In the meantime, Trent and Devin are still hanging around, and you may also enjoy the (presumed) return of the Mariner Optimist. As a bonus offer, I'll link you to this article which states that minor league attendance is on the rise. Check it out, and try to get yourself down to a game quickly - be it rookie ball or AAA - before the season ends.
In the meantime, Trent and Devin are still hanging around, and you may also enjoy the (presumed) return of the Mariner Optimist. As a bonus offer, I'll link you to this article which states that minor league attendance is on the rise. Check it out, and try to get yourself down to a game quickly - be it rookie ball or AAA - before the season ends.
Minor League Wrap-Up:
Tacoma beat Sacramento, 3-2. Bryan Ward tossed a sparking seven innings but didn't get credit for the victory, as the Rainiers rallied for all three runs in the bottom of the ninth off of Jairo Garcia. With two on and two out, the River Cats intentionally walked Greg Dobbs, but Jim Horner smoked a bases-clearing double into left for the winning hit. Jared Hoerman picked up his fifth victory (in six decisions) by tossing two scoreless innings. Notables:
Jeremy Reed: 1-4, 1 double
Ryan Christianson: 1-4
AJ Zapp: 0-4
Greg Jacobs: 0-3
Greg Dobbs: 0-3, 1 IBB
San Antonio hung on to defeat Tulsa, 6-4. Felix Hernandez showed off for five innings, earning his fifth win, before giving way to Aaron Taylor after hearing the bad news. TJ Bohn and Shin-soo Choo each had two-hit days, including a home run each, propelling the Missions to victory. Chris Key made things interesting in the ninth, but Rick Guttormson got the final out for his 25th save. Notables:
Felix Hernandez: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Aaron Taylor: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 K
Dustin Delucchi: 0-3, 1 BB
Shin-soo Choo: 2-2, 1 homer, 1 BB
Hunter Brown: 1-4, 1 double
TJ Bohn: 2-4, 1 homer
Inland Empire beat Lancaster, 7-5. Thomas Oldham spun a decent eight innings and eventually added his third vitory of the year as the 66ers put two on the board in the ninth. Gary Harris and Jesus Guzman each had four-hit days, and Jon Nelson drove in two to lead the team. Darwin Soto threw a perfect ninth for his ninth save. Notables:
Thomas Oldham: 8 IP, 9 H, 5 R (4 ER), 8 K, 2 HR
Jesus Guzman: 4-5, 2 doubles (torrid)
Wladamir Balentien: 2-4, 1 double
Matt Hagen: 1-4, 1 double, 1 BB
Michael Garciaparra: 1-4
Gregory Slee: Just here because of his name
Wisconsin fell to Peoria, 7-1. It was a rough night for Jason Mackintosh, who surrendered six runs in 6.1 frames, and the off-and-on Rattler offense could manage just five hits and one run of support. Four of those hits came from Bryan LaHair and Josh Womack, who also accounted for both of Wisconsin's extra-base hits. Notables:
Jason Mackintosh: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R (5 ER), 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
Josh Womack: 2-4, 1 triple
Adam Jones: 0-4
Bryan LaHair: 2-4, 1 double
Nick Orlandos: 1-3, 1 BB
Everett was sloppy in a 9-7 loss to Salem Keizer. The Aquasox made five errors - Green, Chen, Jensen, and Cabrera (two) - which led to four unearned runs for the Volcanoes. But then, Everett was also handed four extra outs of their own, which they converted into *three* unearned runs. Anyway, Aaron Jensen lasted just 1.2 innings as the starter, surrendering five runs in the second, and the Aquasox were unable to come back and tie the game. Yung-Chi Chen helped make up for his error by reaching base three times, leading the offense. Notables:
Aaron Jensen: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R (3 ER), 1 BB, 2 K
Asdrubal Cabrera: 0-3, 2 BB
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 0-5
Omar Falcon: 0-4
Yung-Chi Chen: 2-3, 1 BB
Brandon Green: 1-5
Brent Johnson: 1-4, 1 double
Tacoma beat Sacramento, 3-2. Bryan Ward tossed a sparking seven innings but didn't get credit for the victory, as the Rainiers rallied for all three runs in the bottom of the ninth off of Jairo Garcia. With two on and two out, the River Cats intentionally walked Greg Dobbs, but Jim Horner smoked a bases-clearing double into left for the winning hit. Jared Hoerman picked up his fifth victory (in six decisions) by tossing two scoreless innings. Notables:
Jeremy Reed: 1-4, 1 double
Ryan Christianson: 1-4
AJ Zapp: 0-4
Greg Jacobs: 0-3
Greg Dobbs: 0-3, 1 IBB
San Antonio hung on to defeat Tulsa, 6-4. Felix Hernandez showed off for five innings, earning his fifth win, before giving way to Aaron Taylor after hearing the bad news. TJ Bohn and Shin-soo Choo each had two-hit days, including a home run each, propelling the Missions to victory. Chris Key made things interesting in the ninth, but Rick Guttormson got the final out for his 25th save. Notables:
Felix Hernandez: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Aaron Taylor: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 K
Dustin Delucchi: 0-3, 1 BB
Shin-soo Choo: 2-2, 1 homer, 1 BB
Hunter Brown: 1-4, 1 double
TJ Bohn: 2-4, 1 homer
Inland Empire beat Lancaster, 7-5. Thomas Oldham spun a decent eight innings and eventually added his third vitory of the year as the 66ers put two on the board in the ninth. Gary Harris and Jesus Guzman each had four-hit days, and Jon Nelson drove in two to lead the team. Darwin Soto threw a perfect ninth for his ninth save. Notables:
Thomas Oldham: 8 IP, 9 H, 5 R (4 ER), 8 K, 2 HR
Jesus Guzman: 4-5, 2 doubles (torrid)
Wladamir Balentien: 2-4, 1 double
Matt Hagen: 1-4, 1 double, 1 BB
Michael Garciaparra: 1-4
Gregory Slee: Just here because of his name
Wisconsin fell to Peoria, 7-1. It was a rough night for Jason Mackintosh, who surrendered six runs in 6.1 frames, and the off-and-on Rattler offense could manage just five hits and one run of support. Four of those hits came from Bryan LaHair and Josh Womack, who also accounted for both of Wisconsin's extra-base hits. Notables:
Jason Mackintosh: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R (5 ER), 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
Josh Womack: 2-4, 1 triple
Adam Jones: 0-4
Bryan LaHair: 2-4, 1 double
Nick Orlandos: 1-3, 1 BB
Everett was sloppy in a 9-7 loss to Salem Keizer. The Aquasox made five errors - Green, Chen, Jensen, and Cabrera (two) - which led to four unearned runs for the Volcanoes. But then, Everett was also handed four extra outs of their own, which they converted into *three* unearned runs. Anyway, Aaron Jensen lasted just 1.2 innings as the starter, surrendering five runs in the second, and the Aquasox were unable to come back and tie the game. Yung-Chi Chen helped make up for his error by reaching base three times, leading the offense. Notables:
Aaron Jensen: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R (3 ER), 1 BB, 2 K
Asdrubal Cabrera: 0-3, 2 BB
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 0-5
Omar Falcon: 0-4
Yung-Chi Chen: 2-3, 1 BB
Brandon Green: 1-5
Brent Johnson: 1-4, 1 double
Tuesday, August 31, 2004
If you thought this season couldn't get any worse, there is even more bad news coming from Dave at USS Mariner. Preliminary reports on a Travis Blackley MRI show a torn rotator cuff, which could ultimately shut him down for the entire 2005 season. The topic has been hashed and rehashed on these blogs, but something has got to change with the way the Mariners handle their pitchers. Whether it be the medical, training or coaching staff, the Mariners are going through arms like Hugh Hefner goes through blondes.
Pat Borders has been traded to Minnesota in exchange for outfielder BJ Garbe.
Historical Stats
2004 Stats
Garbe, 23, was the fifth overall pick in the 1999 draft, a high school outfielder out of Moses Lake, Washington. Possessing all the tools that scouts look for in a phenom, Garbe hasn't been able to put everything (or anything) together, struggling to hit for power in the low minors and becoming more aggressive in AA. His bat is simply too slow to catch up with minor league pitching, and it's impossible to succeed at the plate if you can never get the head of the bat around in front of the ball. The good news is that Garbe plays a pretty good center field, displaying a strong arm and good range, but even the most stubborn of scouts have given up on him. There's still a shred of potential in there, and Garbe's chances of being a part of the next competitive Mariners team are certainly better than Pat Borders', but 2004 was BJ's sink-or-swim year, and he failed to produce.
Here are his numbers:
Rookie: .316/.391/.415
low-A: .233/.333/.303
A: .240/.319/.321
AA: .192/.268/.274
He's regained a little bit of his patience this year (10.7 PA's per walk), but he's still got an OBP and SLG that look like someone's batting average, and a batting average that looks like someone's customary tip rate at a restaurant. There's a slim chance that he goes on to have Daryl Boston's career, but you probably won't need to remember this name.
Historical Stats
2004 Stats
Garbe, 23, was the fifth overall pick in the 1999 draft, a high school outfielder out of Moses Lake, Washington. Possessing all the tools that scouts look for in a phenom, Garbe hasn't been able to put everything (or anything) together, struggling to hit for power in the low minors and becoming more aggressive in AA. His bat is simply too slow to catch up with minor league pitching, and it's impossible to succeed at the plate if you can never get the head of the bat around in front of the ball. The good news is that Garbe plays a pretty good center field, displaying a strong arm and good range, but even the most stubborn of scouts have given up on him. There's still a shred of potential in there, and Garbe's chances of being a part of the next competitive Mariners team are certainly better than Pat Borders', but 2004 was BJ's sink-or-swim year, and he failed to produce.
Here are his numbers:
Rookie: .316/.391/.415
low-A: .233/.333/.303
A: .240/.319/.321
AA: .192/.268/.274
He's regained a little bit of his patience this year (10.7 PA's per walk), but he's still got an OBP and SLG that look like someone's batting average, and a batting average that looks like someone's customary tip rate at a restaurant. There's a slim chance that he goes on to have Daryl Boston's career, but you probably won't need to remember this name.
To update the Stephen Drew saga, Arizona's top pick has withdrawn from classes at FSU in order to continue contract negotiations with the Diamondbacks.
Minor League Wrap-Up:
Tacoma lost to Sacramento, 8-4. Brett Evert was shelled in his Rainier debut, allowing six runs in 2.2 innings of work, and a good day at the plate for Ryan Christianson wasn't enough to help Tacoma overcome an early 6-1 deficit. With the current five-game losing streak, the Rainiers are now 3.5 games behind Portland in the PCL's Northern division with eight to play. Notables:
Brett Evert: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 6 R (4 ER), 6 BB, 2 K, 1 HR
Jeremy Reed: 1-4, 1 BB
Greg Dobbs: 0-5
AJ Zapp: 1-2, 2 BB
Greg Jacobs: 0-4
Ryan Christianson: 2-3, 1 homer, 1 BB (.276/.341/.455)
San Antonio beat Tulsa, 5-2. Hunter Brown and TJ Bohn had run-scoring hits in the first, and John Lindsey's home run in the third inning provided enough support for Juan Done, who threw seven sparkling innings. Rick Guttormson picked up his 24th save by tossing a scoreless ninth. Notables:
Juan Done: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Dustin Delucchi: 1-3, 1 BB
Hunter Brown: 2-4
Shin-soo Choo: 0-3, 1 BB
TJ Bohn: 2-3, 1 double, 1 BB
Inland Empire beat a sloppy Lancaster, 8-5. Rett Johnson was smacked around in four innings of work, but the 66ers rallied back to take the lead, courtesy of home runs by Jon Nelson and Matt Hagen. Melvin Pizarro tossed three solid innings of relief for his fourth win, and Cesar Jimenez notched his fifth save with two scoreless frames. Nelson's three hits led the offense. Notables:
Rett Johnson: 4 IP, 8 H, 4 R (3 ER), 2 BB, 3 K
Jesus Guzman: 1-2, 1 double, 3 BB
Wladamir Balentien: 0-4, 1 BB
Michael Garciaparra: 0-2, 2 BB
Rene Rivera: 0-5
Juan Gonzalez: 1-5
Matt Hagen: 1-4, 1 homer
Wisconsin beat Peoria, 13-8. Michael Moorhead scattered nine hits over seven strong innings for his ninth win, while Jeremy Dutton had four hits, four RBI, and reached base five times to lead the Rattlers' unusually potent lineup. The 6-through-9 hitters went a combined 10-17 with two doubles, a homer, and 10 RBI. Kenly Chang was the only disappointment on the night, allowing five runs in the ninth before finally closing the door. Notables:
Michael Moorhead: 7 IP, 9 H, 3 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 6 K
Josh Womack: 1-6
Chris Colton: 1-4, 1 double, 1 BB
Jeremy Dutton: 4-4, 1 double, 1 BB
Bryan LaHair: 1-5
Francisco Gerez: 2-5, 1 double
Everett fell to Vancouver, 3-2. Shawn Nottingham only allowed two hits over 6.2 innings, but four walks, a homer, and three runs marred his evening, as Ryan Ford was the better pitcher tonight. Mike Wilson had the only multihit day for the Aquasox offense, which managed five extra-base hits in a losing effort. Notables:
Shawn Nottingham: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Asdrubal Cabrera: 1-4, 1 triple
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 1-4, 1 double
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-4
Brandon Green: 1-4
Mike Wilson: 2-4, 2 doubles
Tacoma lost to Sacramento, 8-4. Brett Evert was shelled in his Rainier debut, allowing six runs in 2.2 innings of work, and a good day at the plate for Ryan Christianson wasn't enough to help Tacoma overcome an early 6-1 deficit. With the current five-game losing streak, the Rainiers are now 3.5 games behind Portland in the PCL's Northern division with eight to play. Notables:
Brett Evert: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 6 R (4 ER), 6 BB, 2 K, 1 HR
Jeremy Reed: 1-4, 1 BB
Greg Dobbs: 0-5
AJ Zapp: 1-2, 2 BB
Greg Jacobs: 0-4
Ryan Christianson: 2-3, 1 homer, 1 BB (.276/.341/.455)
San Antonio beat Tulsa, 5-2. Hunter Brown and TJ Bohn had run-scoring hits in the first, and John Lindsey's home run in the third inning provided enough support for Juan Done, who threw seven sparkling innings. Rick Guttormson picked up his 24th save by tossing a scoreless ninth. Notables:
Juan Done: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Dustin Delucchi: 1-3, 1 BB
Hunter Brown: 2-4
Shin-soo Choo: 0-3, 1 BB
TJ Bohn: 2-3, 1 double, 1 BB
Inland Empire beat a sloppy Lancaster, 8-5. Rett Johnson was smacked around in four innings of work, but the 66ers rallied back to take the lead, courtesy of home runs by Jon Nelson and Matt Hagen. Melvin Pizarro tossed three solid innings of relief for his fourth win, and Cesar Jimenez notched his fifth save with two scoreless frames. Nelson's three hits led the offense. Notables:
Rett Johnson: 4 IP, 8 H, 4 R (3 ER), 2 BB, 3 K
Jesus Guzman: 1-2, 1 double, 3 BB
Wladamir Balentien: 0-4, 1 BB
Michael Garciaparra: 0-2, 2 BB
Rene Rivera: 0-5
Juan Gonzalez: 1-5
Matt Hagen: 1-4, 1 homer
Wisconsin beat Peoria, 13-8. Michael Moorhead scattered nine hits over seven strong innings for his ninth win, while Jeremy Dutton had four hits, four RBI, and reached base five times to lead the Rattlers' unusually potent lineup. The 6-through-9 hitters went a combined 10-17 with two doubles, a homer, and 10 RBI. Kenly Chang was the only disappointment on the night, allowing five runs in the ninth before finally closing the door. Notables:
Michael Moorhead: 7 IP, 9 H, 3 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 6 K
Josh Womack: 1-6
Chris Colton: 1-4, 1 double, 1 BB
Jeremy Dutton: 4-4, 1 double, 1 BB
Bryan LaHair: 1-5
Francisco Gerez: 2-5, 1 double
Everett fell to Vancouver, 3-2. Shawn Nottingham only allowed two hits over 6.2 innings, but four walks, a homer, and three runs marred his evening, as Ryan Ford was the better pitcher tonight. Mike Wilson had the only multihit day for the Aquasox offense, which managed five extra-base hits in a losing effort. Notables:
Shawn Nottingham: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Asdrubal Cabrera: 1-4, 1 triple
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 1-4, 1 double
Yung-Chi Chen: 1-4
Brandon Green: 1-4
Mike Wilson: 2-4, 2 doubles
Monday, August 30, 2004
50-80
That sure quieted the Justin Upton talk in a hurry.
After dropping the first game of a quintet with the Royals, the Mariners had slid into a virtual tie for worst record in the American League, and the voices grew louder. Upton. Gaining fame a mere two months ago, the kid brother of Tampa Bay's prize prospect was suddenly on everybody's mind, as hungry Mariners fans began to crave satisfaction in the form of a talented young shortstop. It got to the point at which Upton was all anyone would talk about, and the topic became tiresome seemingly before it even began.
And then the last four games happened, and everyone shut up.
Sure enough, the blogosphere's lone recusant is on the verge of a return as the Mariners rallied back from multi-run deficits to take the final four games of the five-game set with Kansas City. After tying the game at three with a two-run sixth, the Mariners (specifically Ryan Franklin) tried to give it away in the seventh, as Franklin loaded the bases without recording an out. However, Ron Villone, relieving for the first time since July 16th, got Matt Stairs to ground into a run-scoring double play, and eventually escaped the jam having allowed just the one run. For the curious, when teams have loaded the bases with nobody out this year, they've gone on to score an average of 2.27 runs in the inning, and just 42% of the time has the pitching team escaped by allowing one or zero runs. By wiggling out of the tough situation, Villone earned his fifth victory.
...of course, it wouldn't have happened had the Mariners not rallied for two more runs in the bottom of the inning, thanks in part to a display of poor bullpen management by Tony Pena. With Ichiro on first and two down, Pena brought the left-handed Dennys Reyes into the game to face Randy Winn, who has been a substantially better hitter from the right side of the plate over his career. Winn singled, and Ichiro advanced to third base. Up came Bret Boone, who has continued to destroy southpaws (.926 OPS) despite a down year overall. He singled, tying the game and sending Winn to second. Raul Ibanez came to the plate and, while the lefty-lefty matchup looked good to Pena, it didn't on paper, as Ibanez has hit lefties pretty well this year while Reyes has exhibited a reverse platoon split. Raul's seeing-eye single put the Mariners in the lead for good, and the Royals didn't know what had happened. It might *not* have happened if Pena had brought in DJ Carrasco, a right-hander with normal splits. Even if Winn reaches, Carrasco is tough on righties, and Boone probably would have gotten himself out, ending the rally. Alas, a win's a win, and we'll take it.
Today's Winner: With another three hits - including his eighth home run - Ichiro raised his batting average back up to .369. Hits number 207, 208, and 209 have put the right fielder on pace for 260 hits, which would eclipse George Sisler's season record by three. Even more impressive is that, while hitting .457 in August, Ichiro has homered four times (doubling his season total entering the month) and put up a .181 IsoP, above league-average for his position. I'll be the first to admit that I've been too concerned with Ichiro this year - I thought he'd lost some footspeed, I thought he didn't hit for enough power, I thought he'd wear down from all the playing time, and I thought the beanball to the noggin would have some consequences - but there comes a time when you just have to stop worrying about whether or not he'll justify his contract, sit back, and watch him do his thing. Sisler's record has stood for 83 years, and nobody since 1930 has come within 15 hits of tying his mark. What Ichiro is doing right now is the individual equivalent of what the Mariners did in 2001, a rare treat that comes around once, maybe twice in a lifetime. He doesn't walk or strike out very often, so Ichiro's got the right approach if he wants to continue this pace. Hell, he needs to go 74-140 (.529) over the rest of the projected season to hit .400, but after watching his second half, you can't even write that off as an impossibility. Talk about a special ballplayer.
Today's Loser: Willie Bloomquist went 0-3 today, as the starting first baseman. Versatility is great and all, but it's supposed to be used to one's benefit in emergency situations, rather than employed as a one-uppance in a spitting match against a team starting Desi Relaford at third. Willie Bloomquist's .230 EqA easily ranks him dead last among first basemen with 150+ plate appearances (although, to be fair, it also puts him near the bottom among second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops), and you have to wonder about Melvin's motivation to use him there in a ballgame. Sure, he might see a little Eric Young or Manny Mota in the kid, but there's a lot more Jerry Dybzinski than anyone cares to realize. With out-machines Bloomquist and Spiezio helping themselves to seconds, Lopez being totally overmatched, Dobbs having trouble reaching base in AAA, and Leone missing, this infield is going to be pretty ugly for the rest of the year.
Jamie Moyer goes up against Josh Towers at 4:05 on Tuesday. Moyer leads the AL in home runs allowed. The Skydome is inflating home runs by 27%. Bring your glove.
That sure quieted the Justin Upton talk in a hurry.
After dropping the first game of a quintet with the Royals, the Mariners had slid into a virtual tie for worst record in the American League, and the voices grew louder. Upton. Gaining fame a mere two months ago, the kid brother of Tampa Bay's prize prospect was suddenly on everybody's mind, as hungry Mariners fans began to crave satisfaction in the form of a talented young shortstop. It got to the point at which Upton was all anyone would talk about, and the topic became tiresome seemingly before it even began.
And then the last four games happened, and everyone shut up.
Sure enough, the blogosphere's lone recusant is on the verge of a return as the Mariners rallied back from multi-run deficits to take the final four games of the five-game set with Kansas City. After tying the game at three with a two-run sixth, the Mariners (specifically Ryan Franklin) tried to give it away in the seventh, as Franklin loaded the bases without recording an out. However, Ron Villone, relieving for the first time since July 16th, got Matt Stairs to ground into a run-scoring double play, and eventually escaped the jam having allowed just the one run. For the curious, when teams have loaded the bases with nobody out this year, they've gone on to score an average of 2.27 runs in the inning, and just 42% of the time has the pitching team escaped by allowing one or zero runs. By wiggling out of the tough situation, Villone earned his fifth victory.
...of course, it wouldn't have happened had the Mariners not rallied for two more runs in the bottom of the inning, thanks in part to a display of poor bullpen management by Tony Pena. With Ichiro on first and two down, Pena brought the left-handed Dennys Reyes into the game to face Randy Winn, who has been a substantially better hitter from the right side of the plate over his career. Winn singled, and Ichiro advanced to third base. Up came Bret Boone, who has continued to destroy southpaws (.926 OPS) despite a down year overall. He singled, tying the game and sending Winn to second. Raul Ibanez came to the plate and, while the lefty-lefty matchup looked good to Pena, it didn't on paper, as Ibanez has hit lefties pretty well this year while Reyes has exhibited a reverse platoon split. Raul's seeing-eye single put the Mariners in the lead for good, and the Royals didn't know what had happened. It might *not* have happened if Pena had brought in DJ Carrasco, a right-hander with normal splits. Even if Winn reaches, Carrasco is tough on righties, and Boone probably would have gotten himself out, ending the rally. Alas, a win's a win, and we'll take it.
Today's Winner: With another three hits - including his eighth home run - Ichiro raised his batting average back up to .369. Hits number 207, 208, and 209 have put the right fielder on pace for 260 hits, which would eclipse George Sisler's season record by three. Even more impressive is that, while hitting .457 in August, Ichiro has homered four times (doubling his season total entering the month) and put up a .181 IsoP, above league-average for his position. I'll be the first to admit that I've been too concerned with Ichiro this year - I thought he'd lost some footspeed, I thought he didn't hit for enough power, I thought he'd wear down from all the playing time, and I thought the beanball to the noggin would have some consequences - but there comes a time when you just have to stop worrying about whether or not he'll justify his contract, sit back, and watch him do his thing. Sisler's record has stood for 83 years, and nobody since 1930 has come within 15 hits of tying his mark. What Ichiro is doing right now is the individual equivalent of what the Mariners did in 2001, a rare treat that comes around once, maybe twice in a lifetime. He doesn't walk or strike out very often, so Ichiro's got the right approach if he wants to continue this pace. Hell, he needs to go 74-140 (.529) over the rest of the projected season to hit .400, but after watching his second half, you can't even write that off as an impossibility. Talk about a special ballplayer.
Today's Loser: Willie Bloomquist went 0-3 today, as the starting first baseman. Versatility is great and all, but it's supposed to be used to one's benefit in emergency situations, rather than employed as a one-uppance in a spitting match against a team starting Desi Relaford at third. Willie Bloomquist's .230 EqA easily ranks him dead last among first basemen with 150+ plate appearances (although, to be fair, it also puts him near the bottom among second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops), and you have to wonder about Melvin's motivation to use him there in a ballgame. Sure, he might see a little Eric Young or Manny Mota in the kid, but there's a lot more Jerry Dybzinski than anyone cares to realize. With out-machines Bloomquist and Spiezio helping themselves to seconds, Lopez being totally overmatched, Dobbs having trouble reaching base in AAA, and Leone missing, this infield is going to be pretty ugly for the rest of the year.
Jamie Moyer goes up against Josh Towers at 4:05 on Tuesday. Moyer leads the AL in home runs allowed. The Skydome is inflating home runs by 27%. Bring your glove.
Sunday, August 29, 2004
Larry LaRue comes close to hitting the nail on the head in his article in todays Tacoma News Tribune. This season is not Melvin's fault, not even close. In a perfect world, Bill Bavasi, Howard Lincoln, Chuck Armstrong and Bob Melvin should be looking for new jobs this winter and Grady Fuson should be trying to decide what color to paint his new office. I have never really been a huge Bob Melvin fan, nor do I dislike him as a manager. I think the major problem is that we have never really been able to get to know the guy calling the shots from the dugout, mostly because he won't let us get to know that guy. But this is the way the baseball business works. The front office makes bad decisions, managers can't get the results the front office expects out of the slop given to the manager, manager loses job. Melvin was handed chicken shit and expected to make chicken salad, and will likely lose his job for it.
Minor League Wrap-Up:
Portland got by Tacoma, 6-3. Craig Anderson season has been so forgettable it is sometimes surprising when you realize he's still on the team. Alas, he walked five in four innings this evening but didn't give up a run...that was for the Blast From the Past Bullpen! John Kelly (age 31), Tim Christman (age 29) and Bill Simas (age 32) all got equal time to suck tonight and they didn't disappoint. Speaking of old guys Mickey Lopez (age 30) did manage two hits this evening. Notables:
Craig Anderson: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 0 K.
BFTPB: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
Mickey Lopez: 2-4, 2 R.
Jeremy Reed: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 BB.
A.J. Zapp: 0-3.
Ryan Christianson: 1-3, 1 double.
Greg Dobbs: 0-3.
Josh "Why am I Here?" Ellison: 1-3, 1 double.
San Antonio came back to beat Wichita, 3-2. A clutch Shin-soo Choo single in the eighth was the deciding factor as the Missions rallied. Rich Dorman was almost identical to Craig Anderson tonight as he too had extreme control problems but didn't give up a run. Notables:
Rich Dorman: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 6 BB, 3 K.
Dustin Delucchi: 1-4, 1 double.
Shin-soo Choo: 1-4, 2 RBI.
T.J. Bohn: 0-2.
Brian Moon: 1-3, 1 double.
Inland Empire blanked San Jose, 5-0. Bobby Livingston was damn near divine this evening as he went the whole game surrendering only three hits while striking out six. The 66'ers got all the offensive help they needed as Jesus Guzman and Carlos Arroyo both drove in two. Notables:
Bobby Livingston: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K.
Juan Gonzalez: 0-3.
Jesus Guzman: 1-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Carlos Arroyo: 3-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Wladimir Balentien: 1-3, 1 BB, 1 RBI.
Rene Rivera: 0-4.
Michael Garciaparra: 0-2.
Wisconsin got blasted by West Michigan, 8-1. No box yet.
Vancouver beat Everett, 3-1. Not a bad effort by Jason Snyder but it just wasn't enough as the Aquasox offense couldn't get it's feet of the ground. Notables:
Jason Snyder: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
Oswaldo Navarro: 2-4.
Yung-Chi Chen: 0-4.
Asdrubal Cabrera: 0-2.
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 0-3.
Casey Craig: 0-3.
Portland got by Tacoma, 6-3. Craig Anderson season has been so forgettable it is sometimes surprising when you realize he's still on the team. Alas, he walked five in four innings this evening but didn't give up a run...that was for the Blast From the Past Bullpen! John Kelly (age 31), Tim Christman (age 29) and Bill Simas (age 32) all got equal time to suck tonight and they didn't disappoint. Speaking of old guys Mickey Lopez (age 30) did manage two hits this evening. Notables:
Craig Anderson: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 0 K.
BFTPB: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
Mickey Lopez: 2-4, 2 R.
Jeremy Reed: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 BB.
A.J. Zapp: 0-3.
Ryan Christianson: 1-3, 1 double.
Greg Dobbs: 0-3.
Josh "Why am I Here?" Ellison: 1-3, 1 double.
San Antonio came back to beat Wichita, 3-2. A clutch Shin-soo Choo single in the eighth was the deciding factor as the Missions rallied. Rich Dorman was almost identical to Craig Anderson tonight as he too had extreme control problems but didn't give up a run. Notables:
Rich Dorman: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 6 BB, 3 K.
Dustin Delucchi: 1-4, 1 double.
Shin-soo Choo: 1-4, 2 RBI.
T.J. Bohn: 0-2.
Brian Moon: 1-3, 1 double.
Inland Empire blanked San Jose, 5-0. Bobby Livingston was damn near divine this evening as he went the whole game surrendering only three hits while striking out six. The 66'ers got all the offensive help they needed as Jesus Guzman and Carlos Arroyo both drove in two. Notables:
Bobby Livingston: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K.
Juan Gonzalez: 0-3.
Jesus Guzman: 1-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Carlos Arroyo: 3-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI.
Wladimir Balentien: 1-3, 1 BB, 1 RBI.
Rene Rivera: 0-4.
Michael Garciaparra: 0-2.
Wisconsin got blasted by West Michigan, 8-1. No box yet.
Vancouver beat Everett, 3-1. Not a bad effort by Jason Snyder but it just wasn't enough as the Aquasox offense couldn't get it's feet of the ground. Notables:
Jason Snyder: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
Oswaldo Navarro: 2-4.
Yung-Chi Chen: 0-4.
Asdrubal Cabrera: 0-2.
Matthew Tuiasosopo: 0-3.
Casey Craig: 0-3.
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