Part two of a three-part series looking forward to the offseason
Winter 2004: A Pessimist's Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in seasons past - was torn apart by injuries and inexperience. They managed to avoid the dreaded 100-loss plateau by the slimmest of margins, forcing one manager out the door immediately following the season and bringing in another with experience under similar circumstances. This is as good a place to start as any.
The Offense
Not a whole bunch went well in this department. The team finished last in the AL in runs scored, slugging percentage, and homers, led by a leadoff hitter who didn't hit the ball with much authority and who may have strung together quite a fluky season. A batter's singles rate is prone to significant year-to-year fluctuation, and Ichiro's jumped up by 33% over 2003's figure. As a player who doesn't hit for power and who has drawn just 120 unintentional walks in four full seasons, Ichiro's offensive value is dependent on the amount of singles he hits, and hitting them at the rate that he displayed in 2004 just isn't sustainable over a multiyear period. As exciting a player as he is, there is no evidence to suggest that Ichiro is able to hit the ball wherever he wants (e.g. away from the defenders), and - as such - he's going to decline next year.
And that's just where it starts. Raul Ibanez and Randy Winn were simultaneously the second and third best hitters on the team while being roughly league-average for their positions. That's right: only one hitter on the 2004 Seattle Mariners could be considered an above-average player. What's more is that these guys were given nearly $8m to be decent players, and at 32 and 30 years old, respectively, each is likely to see his production decline before his contract says it should.
Beyond that, you've got a 35 year old second baseman who got an $8m reward for hitting .251 over 150 games - the kind of rapid offensive decline also seen in similar second basemen, such as Joe Gordon and Ryne Sandberg, when they reached their mid-30s. Boone's due for laser eye surgery in the offseason, but after seeing how that worked out last year, forgive me for being skeptical. Boone cites "fogging up of his contacts" as one of his problems last year, but as I or anyone else who wears contact lenses can tell you, that doesn't happen.
There's also a 32 year old third baseman in there who put up a .634 OPS and struggled through back injuries in the first year of a moderately expensive three-year deal; there's a 35 year old catcher whose entire body is being held together by rubber cement; there's a 31 year old utility player who was routinely praised by the fans, manager, and organization for hitting .270/.312/.384; there's a 26 year old utility player who's significantly worse; and there's a young backstop airlifted from Chicago midseason who promptly forgot both how to hit and how to catch, two relatively important abilities for a catcher to possess.
It doesn't end there. The team gave ample playing time to a bunch of rookies in the second half, and the results were mixed: Bucky Jacobsen launched a few balls over the fence but otherwise hit like a normal DH, Justin Leone showed a bunch of power but struggled to keep his OBP around .300, Jose Lopez hit like the pre-2004 Deivi Cruz, Greg Dobbs didn't do a damned thing, and even Jeremy Reed managed to look unimpressive despite hitting .400 in September. Each of these players can contribute something to a team, but not as starters on a competitive ballclub, not as soon as 2005.
The Defense
Yeah, it was going to get worse. It should've been better than that, though.
Early in the season, Randy Winn provided a daily reminder that Mike Cameron's bat wasn't the only thing we'd miss, routinely misreading flyballs and returning the ball to the infield with a textbook example of a popgun arm. Meanwhile, Ibanez failed to run down balls that Winn used to get a year ago, and even Ichiro looked a little worse out there than he did in 2003 - although that may be due to the fact that he was forced to cover more ground to make up for Winn's inadequacy.
The problems carried over to the infield, too. Bret Boone, normally one of the best defensive second basemen in the league, saw his rating (RAA2) slip from a happy +10 to a dreadful -13 - a 23-run difference, the likes of which I've never seen before. The shortstops - all of them - displayed poor range, Scott Spiezio was hampered by his back, and the rookies each had their own problems doing something as trivial as throwing the ball to first base. If Jacobsen is forced into putting on a glove from time to time...well, even a masochist has his limits. Looking ahead to 2005, you have to hope that the younger players will have developed in the field over the winter, because none of the veterans are going to reverse time and turn into plus defenders overnight. Without some free agent signings, and with more Miguel Olivo behind the dish, this group is going to be worse.
The Pitching
If the Mariners were so confident in their new offense coming into the year that they planned to give up a bunch more runs yet still win 90-95 games, well, they got it half-right. Partly due to a defensive downgrade but mostly thanks to simple regression to the mean, most of the staff had worse campaigns in 2004 than they had in the previous year. Joel Pineiro's alarming injury opened the door to some promising rookies, many of whom had a rough go of it; Travis Blackley was burned beyond recognition, Clint Nageotte turned a promising beginning into a horrifying conclusion, and Cha Baek was routinely lit up until his final start of the year. Even the best of the bunch, Bobby Madritsch, has some questions going foward, as his strikeout rate was less than stellar, he battled with control on occasion, and he was abused by Bob Melvin more than nearly every other starter in baseball. Whether or not he continues to be an effective #2-quality pitcher has yet to be determined, but his track record suggests that he'll settle into a lesser role once the averages work out and the league gets familiar with him. If nothing else, this isn't the kind of guy you want leading the rotation if you want to build a competitive team.
The leftovers accumulated beatings of their own. Ryan Franklin did what we all thought he would - that is, allow more runners to cross the plate while serving up a bunch of gopherballs. He was eaten alive by his abysmal strikeout rate, as batters put the ball in play with ease and saw several balls drop into the porous outfield. Going forward, he's not going to get any better unless he learns to put hitters away, which - if his career to date is any indication - isn't very likely. Jamie Moyer finally had the down year that people have been waiting for, losing just enough of his pinpoint control to inadevertently place tasty meatballs over the plate. That's the kind of problem that doesn't often fix itself in 40+ year old pitchers - that's a sign of decline. Gil Meche came back from Tacoma and put up a below-average strikeout rate in the second half while giving 15 fans their very own souvenirs. If nothing else, at least Madritsch doesn't have the longball issues that the rest of the staff does.
Ron Villone made some good starts, remembered that his name is Ron Villone, and returning to Suckville. His 5.43 ERA in the rotation essentially met expectations, but don't worry, that won't keep the front office from re-signing him.
The bullpen went from mediocre and old to mediocre and slightly less old, as the second half saw a series of auditions given to minor league relievers too old to consider prospects. George Sherrill, the most promising of the bunch, showed neither the command or strikeout ability that he had in Tacoma. Matt Thornton, another lefty, seemingly derived intense pleasure from putting people on base roughly "when he felt like it." Shigetoshi Hasegawa bombed - nothing to see here - Clint Nageotte sucked, and Rafael Soriano threw a handful of ineffective innings before he was put on the shelf. Even Julio Mateo saw his ERA rise 49% from 2003. The saving graces, so to speak, were Ron Villone, JJ Putz, and Scott Atchison, none of whom have particularly encouraging track records of continued success. Atchison dramatically exceeded his Tacoma numbers, Putz was eminently hittable, and Villone walked too many hitters to be considered a legitimate option for lefty specialist.
What do we rely on in 2005, then? Youngsters without encouraging histories and little ML experience? Veterans who can't figure out why their ERAs nearly quadrupled? (Okay, there's only one of those.) A homer-prone closer who's banking on the ill-advised health benefits of rest and relaxation, rather than surgery? There are a whole lotta unknowns in the 'pen going into 2005, which is the polite way of saying that this isn't a group in which people should have a lot of confidence next year, considering that the rotation is going to need a lot of relief. Tough as it is to understand, given the organization's reputation in recent years, the pitching at the big league level is in pretty bad shape.
The Manager
Firing Melvin, and replacing him with a more experienced approximation of himself, isn't going to lead the team away from troubled waters. Hargrove inherited a bad team with a blend of rookies and veterans, and the Orioles won 275 games in four years under his guidance. He's got a more lively personality than Melvin did as the skipper, but that has about as much of an impact on a team's success as giving a glove to Derek Jeter (ba-dum tsssshhh). What it boils down to is that Hargrove exhibits the same kind of treatment of the pitching staff as Melvin, from abusing young starters to swapping relievers every three pitches if it means a matchup advantage. He probably won't bunt as often as the last guy, but that only means five or ten more legitimate at bats over the course of a full season, which - with this offense - will probably be squandered.
Bob Melvin won 93 games with the Mariners before the team fell flat on its face in 2004. The difference between him and Hargrove is that Hargrove won't have the successful first season to keep critics at bay that Melvin did.
The Offseason
"We're willing to operate at a loss if it means putting a competitive team on the field for the people of Seattle."
"We don't have $28-30m to spend this offseason - the people who say that are egrigiously misinformed. We will have about $22m of leeway over the winter, which should give Bill enough flexibility to plug holes as he sees fit."
Stop me if you've heard this before.
It's the same old story, year after year - the team has money, but won't admit to having said money, citing constraints and contingency funds when it quickly falls out of the running for an available big-name player. The fact of the matter is that we have more money to spend this winter than we ever have before, but try to find a quote from someone within the organization willing to concede as much. The team is in no danger of operating at a loss, but that hasn't stopped Lincoln from deceiving the fans before, and he isn't likely to develop a conscious any time soon. What does that mean in the here and now? Unlike in recent years, the organization knows that it can't rest on its laurels - there are too many holes on the big league roster. However, it still has its time-tested misconceptions that the only way to improve is by bringing in experience and, in the case of offense, left-handed sticks. If you've closed your eyes and listened to your surroundings any time recently, you may have detected a faint buzzing sound that seems to be growing in intensity by the day. That noise is Howard Lincoln's omniscient voice, subliminally instructing you to accept the team's plan and welcome Carlos Delgado and Kevin Millwood to town with open arms. And we can't have any more of these rookies running around and acting like they own the place; say hello to David Dellucci and Dustin Hermanson.
When you're a good team, and you head into the offseason with the intent of keeping things together for the most part, you're minimizing the odds of both extreme success and extraordinary failure (with the obvious exception of, well, the 2004 Seattle Mariners). When you're a bad team, and you head into the offseason with a flawed business model and the intent of improving the team as quickly as possible, then you've got one of those neat little high risk/high reward things going on. When there are ways to eliminate as much of that risk as possible, though, and your front office doesn't see them, then you're carelessly giving yourself worse odds of success simply because you don't want to explore new ideas.
Monday, October 25, 2004
The first in a three-part series looking forward to the offseason
Winter 2004: An Optimist's Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in seasons past - was torn apart by injuries and inexperience. They managed to avoid the dreaded 100-loss plateau by the slimmest of margins, forcing one manager out the door immediately following the season and bringing in another with experience under similar circumstances. This is as good a place to start as any.
The Offense
The transition is only halfway complete - that is, the old, declining hitters are mostly gone, but the new ones have yet to be added - but there is reason to consider this situation with a glass-half-full mentality. Reversing a two-year decline from his breakthrough 2001, Ichiro ran away with the all-time hits record, collecting 262 knocks while batting .372 - the highest mark in the AL since George Brett in 1980. It's absolutely vital for the top of a lineup to get on base in order to set up run-scoring opportunities for the middle of the oder, and Ichiro did his job by reaching at a .414 clip. A tremendous hitter with extraordinary bat control and hand-eye coordination, Ichiro may possess the rare ability to hit the ball away from the fielders, which makes him a valuable asset to the offense. Between his batting and his baserunning, there isn't a better leadoff hitter in the league.
It doesn't stop there, either. Randy Winn quietly managed an above-average offensive season despite having to adjust to a new position, his final numbers being almost identical to his 2003 line. Raul Ibanez outperformed nearly every projection, succeeding at Safeco while also showing marked improvement against southpaws (.780 OPS). Most importantly, there were flashes of potential from the younger players who will be critical to the future of the organization: Bucky Jacobsen clobbered the snot out of the ball for 160 at bats, Justin Leone took a few deliveries into the upper deck, Jose Lopez saw his power translate into the Majors at the age of 20, and Jeremy Reed came up and hit .400 in September. Newcomer Miguel Olivo showed a lot of power before falling into a miserable funk, Greg Dobbs got his feet wet and homered in his first at bat, and even Willie Bloomquist drove two balls out of the park. Whether each player's future is in the lineup or on the bench as a role player, they all showed that they can do a little something with the bat, and the collective power potential is intriguing for fans of a team that hasn't had that kind of punch in recent years.
Should Jolbert Cabrera continue to provide some versatility and batting average off the bench, Bret Boone benefit from his Lasik surgery (to correct a problem that he says hung with him all season), and Scott Spiezio rebound from an injury-plagued 2004 campaign to hit like he did in Anaheim (at whatever position), this offense may only be an FA bat or two away from legitimate, consistent productivity next season.
The Defense
The blogosphere really did a number on these guys (myself included). Despite losing Mike Cameron - forcing Randy Winn to center - DFA'ing Olerud midseason, replacing Guillen with Aurilia, having the league-leader in passed balls behind the plate, and playing a bunch of rookies in the second half, the Mariners still managed to finish second in the AL in Defensive Efficiency (a measure of the amount of balls in play that a defense turns into outs), trailing Tampa Bay by just four ten-thousandths of a point. The team was due to decline from 2003's historical performance, and credit should be given to the group for playing pretty well under the circumstances. The most important change was Winn moving several steps to his left, and he handled the situation admirably, developing his route-running ability over the course of the season to the point at which he might even be considered an above-average center fielder. Extra-base hits were up for the entire staff in 2004, but this should be blamed more on worse pitching than on Winn, Ichiro, and Ibanez - the last of whom did a much better job in left field than most expected, including several strong throws to nail runners at the plate.
There isn't much reason to believe that the defense will be worse in 2005. The younger players - each of whom initially struggled with their throws before settling into a groove after a few weeks - are over their early jitters, and none of the outfielders are yet in danger of losing a step. The guys behind the pitchers should be considered a strength next year.
The Pitching
Seattle's ERA was up exactly 1.00 points from their 2003 figure - that's a 27% increase. I'd love to see a list of teams who have had such a dramatic year-to-year performance swing.
It was bad (God bless you, Bobby Madritsch and half of Freddy Garcia) - more things went wrong than I can count - but there were positives that are going to show up as the 2005 season moves along. First and foremost, Madritsch came up and answered the call for a top-of-the-rotation starter by posting a 3.27 ERA in 88 outstanding innings of work. A guy who would've been the top story of the year if not for those Ichiro and Edgar guys, Madritsch wasn't expected to contribute much of anything to the big league club before the year began, angrily optioned to AAA Tacoma after spring training and vowing that he would prove himself to the front office. Seven months later, his stock has risen from "potential long reliever/bullpen lefty" to "dependable #2". He's a mature, humble, and confident presence on the mound, and his low home run rate portends continued success.
Behind Madritsch, it was a mixed bag, in the way that a veritable assortment can be created by dumping a handful of Skittles into a sack of manure. Still, though, there are reasons to look ahead: Pineiro endured an unexpectedly rough campaign before succumbing to injury, but his strained flexor bundle is apparently in tip-top shape and he should be ready in time for Opening Day. Jamie Moyer had his worst season since 2000 but was the victim of an otherworldly home run rate that may have been - if only partially - flukish in nature. Ryan Franklin, despite some of the worst run support in all of baseball, managed to toss 200 innings, and could be aided by a better offense in 2005. And Gil Meche, everybody's favorite variable, came back from Tacoma in the middle of summer and showed much better control over the remainder of the season, his performance tainted by a bunch of home runs that may be due to overconfidence. There is a very legitimate chance that each of these four starters will be better next year than they were this past season perhaps significantly so.
Beyond the comparitive veterans, there were a handful of younger pitchers who got an opportunity in the rotation. Travis Blackley got obliterated in every sense of the word, but came down with an injury that may have been hampering his ability on the playing field. Clint Nageotte showed flashes of the great prospect he used to be, including six strong innings against Houston in his first career start, and is only a few months of work in AAA away from bursting into the Majors for good. Even Cha Baek, a useful pitcher who's been overshadowed in this organization, had his moments, including eight shutout innings of Texas in his last start of the year. The experience will only help these players develop, and there is a chance that two of them could see considerable time on the ML roster as soon as this season.
The bullpen was a mess for most of the year, but it began to settle down as summer came to a close. Eddie Guardado was everything people expected of him (if a little homer-prone) before going down to injury, but he should be back at full strength in time for 2005 if his R&R treatment goes according to plan. The most important consequence of Guardado's absence was JJ Putz's ascent from Minor League unknown to ML closer. Putz had the typical up-and-down season performance that you'd expect from a rookie thrown into high-leverage situations, but he finished the year with a 2.20 ERA from August 1st on, striking out 12 while walking just one along the way. It's unlikely that Putz will be closing many more games, but he's established himself as a decent reliever at the ML minimum, and will be counted on to get some tough outs in the middle innings.
Beyond the closer role, there were some interesting contributions from other unexpected sources. Despite the blogosphere's warnings, the Mariners brought Ron Villone to camp and he promptly rewarded the team with 117 league-average innings. A southpaw who had good games out of the bullpen and the rotation, Villone could provide valuable swingman innings should one of the rotation members struggle (and if he's re-signed, which - by all indications - he will be). Matt Thornton overcame his bouts of wildness to put up a decent ERA and strong home run/strikeout rates in 32 innings of work. He cut down his walk rate after a brutal month of July, and is another candidate for long-relief/sixth-starter duty in the bullpen. Scott Atchison surprised everyone with his 10.52 K/9 and 2.57 K/BB, hopefully proving to the front office that useful relievers can be found anywhere and everywhere, and that you don't need to give big money and multiyear contracts to players with iffy track records. George Sherrill and Julio Mateo appeared in 66 games between the two of 'em, the former looking to establish himself as the primary lefty in the bullpen and the latter pitching much better than his ERA would suggest.
Candidates for next year's bullpen include Guardado, Mateo, Hasegawa, Atchison, Putz, Sherrill, Villone, Thornton, Taylor, and Williams. The selected group has the potential to be quite good while also being pretty cheap, allowing the team to explore upgrades at other positions.
The Manager
Bob Melvin didn't know how to manage a rebuilding team. His only prior managerial experience came with a competitive group of experienced veterans in 2003, and that didn't do him much good in the second half last season. Replacing him is Mike Hargrove, a guy with experience coaching Cleveland and Baltimore clubs in similar situations as the Mariners are these days. There are definite similarities between the two managers - if looking exclusively at how they handle the pitching staff, you might not be able to tell them apart - but Hargrove is a better in-game tactician who's more open-minded and versatile with the players he's got. He's also unlikely to employ the same smallball strategies as we saw from Melvin from time to time. DMZ thinks that Hargrove needs to have a good pitching coach around, but Price is a pretty good influence, so I don't think you'll see the same kind of rotation abuse as we saw in Cleveland in the '90s.
The Offseason
So this is where everybody starts to disagree with each other, isn't it? Nobody's entirely sure quite what to expect - the team has a bunch of holes, a bunch of spending money, and a bunch of players to choose from.
As long as I'm in an optimistic state of mind, I'll tell you why there's reason to feel good about what's going to happen:
This team hasn't had to entirely rebuild its lineup in several years.
Say what you will about management's commitment to winning - I know that I questioned said commitment in my "Fuzzy Math" post just a few days ago - but everybody in that office knows that putting another lousy team on the field is going to get them run out of town. Even if they're only concerned with making money, you can make a bigger profit by spending a little more on a competitive team than by spending next to nothing on a terrible one.
Lincoln and Bavasi have come out and said the right things - we'll be looking at all the big names, we have money to offer, etc. Even if the team decides to limit its spending to about $22m over the winter, that's more than enough for one of the big names and one of the potential-bargain-second-tier guys in the Sexson/Glaus/Clement mold.
For the first time in the recent history of this organization, we have both the need and available resources to bring in a Carlos Beltran, an Adrian Beltre, or a JD Drew. No more of these token small offers to big names, citing invisible constraints - even with a payroll well below where it *should* be, relative to the other teams in the league, we have more money to spend than we've had in any previous offseason, and there are no apparent limitations to what we could offer the elite available players.
There are good vibes coming from all over the place, from Bill Bavasi to Jim Street to David Cameron. The front office is poised to make an unprecedented run at a player who we never could have imagined playing for the Mariners, and there's a good chance that we grab one of those players and he leads us to a successful, competitive 2005 campaign.
Winter 2004: An Optimist's Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in seasons past - was torn apart by injuries and inexperience. They managed to avoid the dreaded 100-loss plateau by the slimmest of margins, forcing one manager out the door immediately following the season and bringing in another with experience under similar circumstances. This is as good a place to start as any.
The Offense
The transition is only halfway complete - that is, the old, declining hitters are mostly gone, but the new ones have yet to be added - but there is reason to consider this situation with a glass-half-full mentality. Reversing a two-year decline from his breakthrough 2001, Ichiro ran away with the all-time hits record, collecting 262 knocks while batting .372 - the highest mark in the AL since George Brett in 1980. It's absolutely vital for the top of a lineup to get on base in order to set up run-scoring opportunities for the middle of the oder, and Ichiro did his job by reaching at a .414 clip. A tremendous hitter with extraordinary bat control and hand-eye coordination, Ichiro may possess the rare ability to hit the ball away from the fielders, which makes him a valuable asset to the offense. Between his batting and his baserunning, there isn't a better leadoff hitter in the league.
It doesn't stop there, either. Randy Winn quietly managed an above-average offensive season despite having to adjust to a new position, his final numbers being almost identical to his 2003 line. Raul Ibanez outperformed nearly every projection, succeeding at Safeco while also showing marked improvement against southpaws (.780 OPS). Most importantly, there were flashes of potential from the younger players who will be critical to the future of the organization: Bucky Jacobsen clobbered the snot out of the ball for 160 at bats, Justin Leone took a few deliveries into the upper deck, Jose Lopez saw his power translate into the Majors at the age of 20, and Jeremy Reed came up and hit .400 in September. Newcomer Miguel Olivo showed a lot of power before falling into a miserable funk, Greg Dobbs got his feet wet and homered in his first at bat, and even Willie Bloomquist drove two balls out of the park. Whether each player's future is in the lineup or on the bench as a role player, they all showed that they can do a little something with the bat, and the collective power potential is intriguing for fans of a team that hasn't had that kind of punch in recent years.
Should Jolbert Cabrera continue to provide some versatility and batting average off the bench, Bret Boone benefit from his Lasik surgery (to correct a problem that he says hung with him all season), and Scott Spiezio rebound from an injury-plagued 2004 campaign to hit like he did in Anaheim (at whatever position), this offense may only be an FA bat or two away from legitimate, consistent productivity next season.
The Defense
The blogosphere really did a number on these guys (myself included). Despite losing Mike Cameron - forcing Randy Winn to center - DFA'ing Olerud midseason, replacing Guillen with Aurilia, having the league-leader in passed balls behind the plate, and playing a bunch of rookies in the second half, the Mariners still managed to finish second in the AL in Defensive Efficiency (a measure of the amount of balls in play that a defense turns into outs), trailing Tampa Bay by just four ten-thousandths of a point. The team was due to decline from 2003's historical performance, and credit should be given to the group for playing pretty well under the circumstances. The most important change was Winn moving several steps to his left, and he handled the situation admirably, developing his route-running ability over the course of the season to the point at which he might even be considered an above-average center fielder. Extra-base hits were up for the entire staff in 2004, but this should be blamed more on worse pitching than on Winn, Ichiro, and Ibanez - the last of whom did a much better job in left field than most expected, including several strong throws to nail runners at the plate.
There isn't much reason to believe that the defense will be worse in 2005. The younger players - each of whom initially struggled with their throws before settling into a groove after a few weeks - are over their early jitters, and none of the outfielders are yet in danger of losing a step. The guys behind the pitchers should be considered a strength next year.
The Pitching
Seattle's ERA was up exactly 1.00 points from their 2003 figure - that's a 27% increase. I'd love to see a list of teams who have had such a dramatic year-to-year performance swing.
It was bad (God bless you, Bobby Madritsch and half of Freddy Garcia) - more things went wrong than I can count - but there were positives that are going to show up as the 2005 season moves along. First and foremost, Madritsch came up and answered the call for a top-of-the-rotation starter by posting a 3.27 ERA in 88 outstanding innings of work. A guy who would've been the top story of the year if not for those Ichiro and Edgar guys, Madritsch wasn't expected to contribute much of anything to the big league club before the year began, angrily optioned to AAA Tacoma after spring training and vowing that he would prove himself to the front office. Seven months later, his stock has risen from "potential long reliever/bullpen lefty" to "dependable #2". He's a mature, humble, and confident presence on the mound, and his low home run rate portends continued success.
Behind Madritsch, it was a mixed bag, in the way that a veritable assortment can be created by dumping a handful of Skittles into a sack of manure. Still, though, there are reasons to look ahead: Pineiro endured an unexpectedly rough campaign before succumbing to injury, but his strained flexor bundle is apparently in tip-top shape and he should be ready in time for Opening Day. Jamie Moyer had his worst season since 2000 but was the victim of an otherworldly home run rate that may have been - if only partially - flukish in nature. Ryan Franklin, despite some of the worst run support in all of baseball, managed to toss 200 innings, and could be aided by a better offense in 2005. And Gil Meche, everybody's favorite variable, came back from Tacoma in the middle of summer and showed much better control over the remainder of the season, his performance tainted by a bunch of home runs that may be due to overconfidence. There is a very legitimate chance that each of these four starters will be better next year than they were this past season perhaps significantly so.
Beyond the comparitive veterans, there were a handful of younger pitchers who got an opportunity in the rotation. Travis Blackley got obliterated in every sense of the word, but came down with an injury that may have been hampering his ability on the playing field. Clint Nageotte showed flashes of the great prospect he used to be, including six strong innings against Houston in his first career start, and is only a few months of work in AAA away from bursting into the Majors for good. Even Cha Baek, a useful pitcher who's been overshadowed in this organization, had his moments, including eight shutout innings of Texas in his last start of the year. The experience will only help these players develop, and there is a chance that two of them could see considerable time on the ML roster as soon as this season.
The bullpen was a mess for most of the year, but it began to settle down as summer came to a close. Eddie Guardado was everything people expected of him (if a little homer-prone) before going down to injury, but he should be back at full strength in time for 2005 if his R&R treatment goes according to plan. The most important consequence of Guardado's absence was JJ Putz's ascent from Minor League unknown to ML closer. Putz had the typical up-and-down season performance that you'd expect from a rookie thrown into high-leverage situations, but he finished the year with a 2.20 ERA from August 1st on, striking out 12 while walking just one along the way. It's unlikely that Putz will be closing many more games, but he's established himself as a decent reliever at the ML minimum, and will be counted on to get some tough outs in the middle innings.
Beyond the closer role, there were some interesting contributions from other unexpected sources. Despite the blogosphere's warnings, the Mariners brought Ron Villone to camp and he promptly rewarded the team with 117 league-average innings. A southpaw who had good games out of the bullpen and the rotation, Villone could provide valuable swingman innings should one of the rotation members struggle (and if he's re-signed, which - by all indications - he will be). Matt Thornton overcame his bouts of wildness to put up a decent ERA and strong home run/strikeout rates in 32 innings of work. He cut down his walk rate after a brutal month of July, and is another candidate for long-relief/sixth-starter duty in the bullpen. Scott Atchison surprised everyone with his 10.52 K/9 and 2.57 K/BB, hopefully proving to the front office that useful relievers can be found anywhere and everywhere, and that you don't need to give big money and multiyear contracts to players with iffy track records. George Sherrill and Julio Mateo appeared in 66 games between the two of 'em, the former looking to establish himself as the primary lefty in the bullpen and the latter pitching much better than his ERA would suggest.
Candidates for next year's bullpen include Guardado, Mateo, Hasegawa, Atchison, Putz, Sherrill, Villone, Thornton, Taylor, and Williams. The selected group has the potential to be quite good while also being pretty cheap, allowing the team to explore upgrades at other positions.
The Manager
Bob Melvin didn't know how to manage a rebuilding team. His only prior managerial experience came with a competitive group of experienced veterans in 2003, and that didn't do him much good in the second half last season. Replacing him is Mike Hargrove, a guy with experience coaching Cleveland and Baltimore clubs in similar situations as the Mariners are these days. There are definite similarities between the two managers - if looking exclusively at how they handle the pitching staff, you might not be able to tell them apart - but Hargrove is a better in-game tactician who's more open-minded and versatile with the players he's got. He's also unlikely to employ the same smallball strategies as we saw from Melvin from time to time. DMZ thinks that Hargrove needs to have a good pitching coach around, but Price is a pretty good influence, so I don't think you'll see the same kind of rotation abuse as we saw in Cleveland in the '90s.
The Offseason
So this is where everybody starts to disagree with each other, isn't it? Nobody's entirely sure quite what to expect - the team has a bunch of holes, a bunch of spending money, and a bunch of players to choose from.
As long as I'm in an optimistic state of mind, I'll tell you why there's reason to feel good about what's going to happen:
This team hasn't had to entirely rebuild its lineup in several years.
Say what you will about management's commitment to winning - I know that I questioned said commitment in my "Fuzzy Math" post just a few days ago - but everybody in that office knows that putting another lousy team on the field is going to get them run out of town. Even if they're only concerned with making money, you can make a bigger profit by spending a little more on a competitive team than by spending next to nothing on a terrible one.
Lincoln and Bavasi have come out and said the right things - we'll be looking at all the big names, we have money to offer, etc. Even if the team decides to limit its spending to about $22m over the winter, that's more than enough for one of the big names and one of the potential-bargain-second-tier guys in the Sexson/Glaus/Clement mold.
For the first time in the recent history of this organization, we have both the need and available resources to bring in a Carlos Beltran, an Adrian Beltre, or a JD Drew. No more of these token small offers to big names, citing invisible constraints - even with a payroll well below where it *should* be, relative to the other teams in the league, we have more money to spend than we've had in any previous offseason, and there are no apparent limitations to what we could offer the elite available players.
There are good vibes coming from all over the place, from Bill Bavasi to Jim Street to David Cameron. The front office is poised to make an unprecedented run at a player who we never could have imagined playing for the Mariners, and there's a good chance that we grab one of those players and he leads us to a successful, competitive 2005 campaign.
I will begin a three-part series on the offseason this afternoon, time permitting. In the meantime, I invite you to savor possibly the only intelligent statement offered by the FOX broadcast, coming in the middle innings of last night's game:
"Morris hasn't been able to put away the Red Sox hitters when they're down two strikes, and they've made him pay."
The Cardinals' entire staff is comprised of pitchers who'd rather get you out with a grounder or a pop-up - that is, they put the ball in play and trust the defense behind them. Against a lineup as strong 1-through-9 as Boston's, you can't afford to let the batters make contact as often as other teams because there's not a guy in the order who can't hurt you.
In any given at bat, a good hitter is probably going to strikeout, walk, or hit the ball hard. Pitchers such as the ones populating St. Louis' staff are essentially minimizing the probability of one of those three possible outcomes and crossing their fingers that the ball gets hit right at a defender. That's not a very good strategy when you're going up against the best offense in baseball.
"Morris hasn't been able to put away the Red Sox hitters when they're down two strikes, and they've made him pay."
The Cardinals' entire staff is comprised of pitchers who'd rather get you out with a grounder or a pop-up - that is, they put the ball in play and trust the defense behind them. Against a lineup as strong 1-through-9 as Boston's, you can't afford to let the batters make contact as often as other teams because there's not a guy in the order who can't hurt you.
In any given at bat, a good hitter is probably going to strikeout, walk, or hit the ball hard. Pitchers such as the ones populating St. Louis' staff are essentially minimizing the probability of one of those three possible outcomes and crossing their fingers that the ball gets hit right at a defender. That's not a very good strategy when you're going up against the best offense in baseball.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Saturday, October 23, 2004
Something I ran across while browsing the Inside Edge Advance Scouting website (the company who put together the scouting reports I linked below):
Two testimonials.
Those scouting reports clearly provided a distinct advantage for those who used them.
Two testimonials.
"Those guys are the best. Teams that use them love them.”
-Bill Bavasi
“Inside Edge scouting reports give me accurate, up-to-date information on opposing batters. That’s the edge every Major League pitcher wants to take into a game. I have told the Mariners how valuable Inside Edge has been to me.”
-Shigetosi Hasagawa
Those scouting reports clearly provided a distinct advantage for those who used them.
This might be the most in-depth scouting report I've seen in my life.
I don't know what else to say. (Thanks to Will Carroll for the link.)
I don't know what else to say. (Thanks to Will Carroll for the link.)
Friday, October 22, 2004
In light of the most recent post, I'd like to take you back several months to something that caught my attention in March:
MLB.com: Would you vote to put Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame?
Lincoln: Well, I don't have a vote. Let's just say that I don't like people that lie, and leave it at that.
Fuzzy Math, Revisited:
That dreadful term, "budget constraints", has already been tossed around by a few sources with regards to the Mariners' '04/'05 offseason plan. Howard Lincoln has said that the team's going to take a financial hit next year, and that he's willing to accept that in order to build a competitive team, but he's just flapping his lips - the team is in no danger of losing money in 2005.
With the help of the late Doug Pappas and the unexpectedly-extraordinarily-useful Forbes MLB Valuations, I decided to take a look at just how the Mariners have been taking in and allocating their money, as compared to the league.
All raw numbers are in millions. Time to explain the categories:
In 2002, the Mariners were in the upper quarter in the league in terms of making money, and this translated into the seventh-highest payroll and a near miss of the playoffs. Still, the team made more money in 2003 than they did the previous year, so what did the ownership do?
That's right, slash payroll by 6%. Despite making more than all but two teams in baseball, Seattle's 2004 Opening Day payroll was tenth in the league, behind such organizations as Philadelphia and San Francisco. In 2003, the Mariners had the highest net earnings in baseball while the majority of other big-market teams lost money, yet they decided to cut payroll to a level that just barely qualifies them as an upper-third team.
Let's take a look at a related chart, showing team rankings:
Here, "%DiffEx/Payroll" refers to how much more money the team spent than expected, as a function of the organization's 2003 payroll. Essentially, it normalizes spending to the team context. For example, look at the Devil Rays: they spent $2.4m more this year than you'd think, given their 2004 payroll and 2003 payroll/operating income, while the Astros spent $6.1m. However, if you expect the team's 2003 payroll to be a ballpark approximation of how much ownership is willing to spend on the team, then Tampa Bay spent a greater percentage more money than Houston.
What do we find? The Mariners rank in the bottom third in all three categories, committing just over half of its revenue to the team and spending far less than they should be, considering their previous payroll and operating income. They've been making money at obscene rates each year and pumping less and less of it into roster construction. While to my knowledge Forbes hasn't published the 2004 numbers yet, if we assume that the Mariners had a similar operating income this year than they did in 2003 (a reasonable assumption, given that lower attendance was roughly negated by a lower payroll), then Lincoln could put $105-110m into the team while still breaking even. Of course, this ignores the team's Scrooge McDuck-like vault containing previous earnings, some of which could easily be added to the payroll without putting any of the owners out on the streets.
Look at the teams who put a lesser percentage of total revenue into the payroll this year:
Several of these teams are, or expected to be, in a rebuilding stage, bracing for a lower revenue by cutting costs, along with putting together a roster of younger, more inexpensive players. Some of these teams added big-name free agents over the winter to a roster otherwise made up of cheap, inexperienced rookies or replacement-level talent. Only one of them could have entertained reasonable hopes of contending before the year started, and even the defending champs looked like a pretty average team, having lost a few key pieces during the offseason.
The point? The Mariners were a very good team in 2003 who made a lot of money, and who expected to compete again in 2004. Problem is, you have to spend money to win games. Take a look at how this year's playoff teams rank in terms of revenue put into the team:
Even the tiny-market Twins spent more of its revenue on the team than Seattle, this despite losing money in 2003. Another competitive small-market team, Oakland, ranked #14.
What's the lesson here - does spending as much money as you can guarantee success? Well, no, look no further than the Phillies - they missed the playoffs after pumping 88% of its 2003 revenue into the roster and upping the payroll despite losing a significant chunk of change last year. Spending doesn't ensure anything, but it gives you much greater odds of succeeding than stockpiling your riches and putting just enough money into the team to be able to claim that they remain big-market. The Mariners seem prepared to throw around a lot of cash this winter, but Lincoln & Co. have already begun their annual overtures on budget constraints and profit margin, so I implore you all to temper your expectations.
That dreadful term, "budget constraints", has already been tossed around by a few sources with regards to the Mariners' '04/'05 offseason plan. Howard Lincoln has said that the team's going to take a financial hit next year, and that he's willing to accept that in order to build a competitive team, but he's just flapping his lips - the team is in no danger of losing money in 2005.
With the help of the late Doug Pappas and the unexpectedly-extraordinarily-useful Forbes MLB Valuations, I decided to take a look at just how the Mariners have been taking in and allocating their money, as compared to the league.
All raw numbers are in millions. Time to explain the categories:
- Revenue and Operating Income values are taken from Forbes' data collection. The latter refers to, in their words, "earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization."
- 2003 and 2004 Opening Day payrolls include ~$7.6m to cover health and pension benefits, medical costs, worker's comp, etc. This value fluctuates by a few thousand dollars each year, which we may consider to be negligible.
- "Diff.Payroll" refers to the difference between the 2004 and 2003 team payrolls. A positive value means the team spent more on the roster, while a negative value means that the team slashed its budget.
- "Diff.Exp.Payroll" refers to the difference between the team's 2004 payroll and where we could expect it to be based on its 2003 payroll and operating income. This is a very rough approximation, but it suggests to what extent a team's ownership was willing to spend money in order to build a more competitive team.
- "%Payroll/REV" is another rough estimate of how much the team spent on its roster, relative to how much money it brought in the previous year.
In 2002, the Mariners were in the upper quarter in the league in terms of making money, and this translated into the seventh-highest payroll and a near miss of the playoffs. Still, the team made more money in 2003 than they did the previous year, so what did the ownership do?
That's right, slash payroll by 6%. Despite making more than all but two teams in baseball, Seattle's 2004 Opening Day payroll was tenth in the league, behind such organizations as Philadelphia and San Francisco. In 2003, the Mariners had the highest net earnings in baseball while the majority of other big-market teams lost money, yet they decided to cut payroll to a level that just barely qualifies them as an upper-third team.
Let's take a look at a related chart, showing team rankings:
Here, "%DiffEx/Payroll" refers to how much more money the team spent than expected, as a function of the organization's 2003 payroll. Essentially, it normalizes spending to the team context. For example, look at the Devil Rays: they spent $2.4m more this year than you'd think, given their 2004 payroll and 2003 payroll/operating income, while the Astros spent $6.1m. However, if you expect the team's 2003 payroll to be a ballpark approximation of how much ownership is willing to spend on the team, then Tampa Bay spent a greater percentage more money than Houston.
What do we find? The Mariners rank in the bottom third in all three categories, committing just over half of its revenue to the team and spending far less than they should be, considering their previous payroll and operating income. They've been making money at obscene rates each year and pumping less and less of it into roster construction. While to my knowledge Forbes hasn't published the 2004 numbers yet, if we assume that the Mariners had a similar operating income this year than they did in 2003 (a reasonable assumption, given that lower attendance was roughly negated by a lower payroll), then Lincoln could put $105-110m into the team while still breaking even. Of course, this ignores the team's Scrooge McDuck-like vault containing previous earnings, some of which could easily be added to the payroll without putting any of the owners out on the streets.
Look at the teams who put a lesser percentage of total revenue into the payroll this year:
- Florida
- Texas
- Baltimore
- Detroit
- Cincinnati
- Tampa Bay
- Pittsburgh
- Milwaukee
- Cleveland
Several of these teams are, or expected to be, in a rebuilding stage, bracing for a lower revenue by cutting costs, along with putting together a roster of younger, more inexpensive players. Some of these teams added big-name free agents over the winter to a roster otherwise made up of cheap, inexperienced rookies or replacement-level talent. Only one of them could have entertained reasonable hopes of contending before the year started, and even the defending champs looked like a pretty average team, having lost a few key pieces during the offseason.
The point? The Mariners were a very good team in 2003 who made a lot of money, and who expected to compete again in 2004. Problem is, you have to spend money to win games. Take a look at how this year's playoff teams rank in terms of revenue put into the team:
- Anaheim (2)
- New York (3)
- Boston (4)
- Houston (6)
- St. Louis (7)
- Los Angeles (9)
- Minnesota (11)
- Atlanta (13)
Even the tiny-market Twins spent more of its revenue on the team than Seattle, this despite losing money in 2003. Another competitive small-market team, Oakland, ranked #14.
What's the lesson here - does spending as much money as you can guarantee success? Well, no, look no further than the Phillies - they missed the playoffs after pumping 88% of its 2003 revenue into the roster and upping the payroll despite losing a significant chunk of change last year. Spending doesn't ensure anything, but it gives you much greater odds of succeeding than stockpiling your riches and putting just enough money into the team to be able to claim that they remain big-market. The Mariners seem prepared to throw around a lot of cash this winter, but Lincoln & Co. have already begun their annual overtures on budget constraints and profit margin, so I implore you all to temper your expectations.
There is nothing like October baseball. Sure, April through September is fun, but the excitement that comes out of October baseball is unbelievable. Both championship series were a lot of fun to watch and the World Series should be entertaining as well, but I doubt it will reach the magnitude of last nights Red Sox win over the Yankees. If you are a superstitious person, has the curse been broken or is the ghost of the Babe just tugging at the heart strings of the Boston faithful? My prediction, Boston in 6.
Now to the Mariners and their new coach Mike Hargrove. The Seattle papers do a really good job in covering the hire and DMZ adds some good insights about Hargrove. The one thing that stuck out during the press conference and reading the articles was Grover’s confidence, something that many of us believe Melvin lacked. Grover definitely fills the role of a manager with experience that Bavasi was seeking and also brings with him an ideology he calls Groverball, a mix of statistical analysis and scouting practices. Hargrove is expected to start putting together his staff soon, with Bryan Price the first person he wants to talk with. The more I read about and listen to Hargrove, the more I like the hiring. Now for the M’s to focus their attention on free agents and trade targets.
The current Mariner roster is expected to undergo one of the largest face lifts in team history this off-season. Bavasi figures to be active on both the trade and free agent front, as he tries to turn the line-up into the more athletic and tools oriented roster he prefers. Players who could be dealt this off-season include anyone not named Ichiro, but this is another post for another day. This should be an interesting off-season to say that absolute least and one Wednesday, it started off on a good note. Let’s just hope this carries over into spring training.
Now to the Mariners and their new coach Mike Hargrove. The Seattle papers do a really good job in covering the hire and DMZ adds some good insights about Hargrove. The one thing that stuck out during the press conference and reading the articles was Grover’s confidence, something that many of us believe Melvin lacked. Grover definitely fills the role of a manager with experience that Bavasi was seeking and also brings with him an ideology he calls Groverball, a mix of statistical analysis and scouting practices. Hargrove is expected to start putting together his staff soon, with Bryan Price the first person he wants to talk with. The more I read about and listen to Hargrove, the more I like the hiring. Now for the M’s to focus their attention on free agents and trade targets.
The current Mariner roster is expected to undergo one of the largest face lifts in team history this off-season. Bavasi figures to be active on both the trade and free agent front, as he tries to turn the line-up into the more athletic and tools oriented roster he prefers. Players who could be dealt this off-season include anyone not named Ichiro, but this is another post for another day. This should be an interesting off-season to say that absolute least and one Wednesday, it started off on a good note. Let’s just hope this carries over into spring training.
Thursday, October 21, 2004
You may remember this post on Jeremy Reed that I put up a little over a month ago. In the introduction I cited a Nate Silver article that evaluated 2004 Minor League performances based on PECOTA expecations. Players were split up into six groups:
In the absence of any other relevant Mariners news, let's take a look at just who did and didn't hold up their ends of the bargain this season:
Dramatically Exceeded Expectations:
-Freddy Garcia
-Bobby Madritsch
-Ichiro
Markedly Exceeded Expectations:
-Ron Villone
-Bucky Jacobsen
-Justin Leone
Exceeded Expectations:
-Matt Thornton
-Ryan Franklin
-Raul Ibanez
Met Expectations:
-Eddie Guardado
-Mike Myers
-Gil Meche
-Shigetoshi Hasegawa
-Randy Winn
-Jolbert Cabrera
-Willie Bloomquist
-Jose Lopez
Underperformed Expectations:
-Joel Pineiro
-Julio Mateo
-Jamie Moyer
-Cha Baek
-Dan Wilson
-Miguel Olivo
Markedly Underperformed Expectations:
-Clint Nageotte
-Kevin Jarvis
-Travis Blackley
-Bret Boone
-Edgar Martinez
-Scott Spiezio
-John Olerud
-Rich Aurilia
N/A:
-JJ Putz (no projection)
-Scott Atchison (no projection)
-George Sherrill (no projection)
-Rafael Soriano (I don't have the heart to put him in another category)
*-minimum 100 AB or 10 IP
Look at that again - five Opening Day starting position players and two members of the starting rotation performed well below expectations. Ryan Franklin and Ron Villone only qualify as overachievers because they threw more innings than PECOTA thought they would.
I've said it before, but I think it bears repeating that, hypothetically, if we were to add Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre, this team would likely be nothing more than a fringe contender. Bill Bavasi may make a few splashes this winter as a "Stars & Scrubs" general manager, but that doesn't mean anything if the rest of the team is as bad as it was in 2004.
Have a nice NLCS.
- Dramatically Exceeded Expectations (90th percentile or better)
- Markedly Exceeded Expectations (75th percentile through 90th percentile)
- Exceeded Expectations (60th percentile through 75th percentile)
- Met Expectations (40th percentile through 60th percentile)
- Underperformed Expectations (25th percentile through 40th percentile)
- Markedly Underperformed Expectations (25th percentile or worse)
In the absence of any other relevant Mariners news, let's take a look at just who did and didn't hold up their ends of the bargain this season:
Dramatically Exceeded Expectations:
-Freddy Garcia
-Bobby Madritsch
-Ichiro
Markedly Exceeded Expectations:
-Ron Villone
-Bucky Jacobsen
-Justin Leone
Exceeded Expectations:
-Matt Thornton
-Ryan Franklin
-Raul Ibanez
Met Expectations:
-Eddie Guardado
-Mike Myers
-Gil Meche
-Shigetoshi Hasegawa
-Randy Winn
-Jolbert Cabrera
-Willie Bloomquist
-Jose Lopez
Underperformed Expectations:
-Joel Pineiro
-Julio Mateo
-Jamie Moyer
-Cha Baek
-Dan Wilson
-Miguel Olivo
Markedly Underperformed Expectations:
-Clint Nageotte
-Kevin Jarvis
-Travis Blackley
-Bret Boone
-Edgar Martinez
-Scott Spiezio
-John Olerud
-Rich Aurilia
N/A:
-JJ Putz (no projection)
-Scott Atchison (no projection)
-George Sherrill (no projection)
-Rafael Soriano (I don't have the heart to put him in another category)
*-minimum 100 AB or 10 IP
Look at that again - five Opening Day starting position players and two members of the starting rotation performed well below expectations. Ryan Franklin and Ron Villone only qualify as overachievers because they threw more innings than PECOTA thought they would.
I've said it before, but I think it bears repeating that, hypothetically, if we were to add Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre, this team would likely be nothing more than a fringe contender. Bill Bavasi may make a few splashes this winter as a "Stars & Scrubs" general manager, but that doesn't mean anything if the rest of the team is as bad as it was in 2004.
Have a nice NLCS.
And so we bid farewell to perhaps the greatest playoff series of our lifetimes.
Congratulations to the Red Sox for an improbable comeback, and I can't say I feel bad for the Yankees after they managed to pull off arguably the biggest choke in the history of professional sports. David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Curt Schilling, and Derek Lowe have become instant heroes in a city longing for someone to cling to.
I've gotta say, I never thought I'd hear a "Let's Go Red Sox" chant at The Stadium, nevermind the reverse "Who's Your Daddy?" chants following the conclusion.
And I hope that no one forgets about that other league, which has its own Game 7 tomorrow night.
Congratulations to the Red Sox for an improbable comeback, and I can't say I feel bad for the Yankees after they managed to pull off arguably the biggest choke in the history of professional sports. David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Curt Schilling, and Derek Lowe have become instant heroes in a city longing for someone to cling to.
I've gotta say, I never thought I'd hear a "Let's Go Red Sox" chant at The Stadium, nevermind the reverse "Who's Your Daddy?" chants following the conclusion.
And I hope that no one forgets about that other league, which has its own Game 7 tomorrow night.
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
It's official, the Mariners have named Mike Hargrove as the new manager of the Seattle Mariners and gave him a three year contract.
Hopefully, this is a sign of change in the Mariners FO philosophy.
Hopefully, this is a sign of change in the Mariners FO philosophy.
It's Hargrove.
The team hasn't made an official announcement, requiring permission from Bud Selig to do so, but the decision has been made.
The offseason is off to a pretty good start.
The team hasn't made an official announcement, requiring permission from Bud Selig to do so, but the decision has been made.
The offseason is off to a pretty good start.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
This morning, I checked out a clip of Jon Stewart's appearance on Crossfire. Now, I'd like to acknowledge up front that I rarely, if ever involve myself in political discussion.
This will be no exception.
The managerial race has evidently come down to Grady Little vs. Mike Hargrove, so what better way to evaluate the candidates than by putting together a pros & cons list for each party?
Grady Little:
Pros
Cons
Other Facts
Mike Hargrove:
Pros
Cons
Other Facts
In the end, neither candidate comes off looking particularly good or bad. I'm especially concerned with how our young pitchers will be handled, in the wake of Bob Melvin's abuse, but I'm confident that things aren't going to get worse.
My personal preference is for Hargrove, as he's recently spent some time in a good organization, and also has experience with teams similar to the late Mariners. Still, hiring Little wouldn't be a tremendous disappointment.
This will be no exception.
The managerial race has evidently come down to Grady Little vs. Mike Hargrove, so what better way to evaluate the candidates than by putting together a pros & cons list for each party?
Grady Little:
Pros
- Popular players' manager type, who helped keep a diverse group of Red Sox from getting out of line
- Guided good teams to 188 wins over two seasons and owns the fourth-best managerial winning percentage in Red Sox history
- Has postseason experience
- Has 18 years of general managerial experience
- Has dealt with individual players getting "star treatment", which could make a difference should the front office make a big splash
- Has experience with closer-by-committee situation (and he eventually made the proper selections, given the available choices)
- Isn't Don Baylor or Jimy Williams
Cons
- Indecisiveness, tied to an over-reliance on letting the players make tough decisions
- Over two seasons, his teams finished six games below their expected (Pythagorean) records
- Fascinated with suboptimal lineup construction, such as slotting the worst OBP's near the top of the order
- Has very limited experience with young pitchers
Other Facts
- His teams finished 11th and 12th in sacrifice bunts
- Is moderately aggressive on the basepaths when he has the right tools
Mike Hargrove:
Pros
- Has 13 years of Major League managerial experience
- Has led two teams to the World Series, and made the playoffs each year from 1995-1999 (Cleveland also was in position to win the Wild Card in '94)
- Spent 2000-2003 managing a team in a similar position as the current Mariners, an organization with a lot of money, a bunch of declining veterans, and some rookies trying to get themselves some playing time
- Was ten games over his expected W/L record for his career - +20 with Cleveland, suggesting that he might be a better in-game tactician when he's managing a competitive team
- Also has experience with a closer-by-committee
- Has spent the last handful of seasons working with relatively young pitching rotations
- Was a patient, analytical hitter in his day (probably doesn't mean anything, but worth a mention)
- Worked with a smart Indians organization in 2004
- Quotable!
- Isn't Don Baylor or Jimy Williams
Cons
- His recent teams have performed below expectations
- Has been called out on several occasions for being too uninvolved in Baltimore (related to the first point, in that Hargrove may lose interest in managing a bad team)
- Has a history of abusing young starters - specifically Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright in Cleveland and Sidney Ponson in Baltimore
- Typically favors veterans over younger players, demanding that rookies produce immediately in order to crack the lineup
Other Facts
- Enjoys to bunt
- Also loves attempting to steal bases
- Routinely among the league leaders in one-batter appearances by his pitchers
In the end, neither candidate comes off looking particularly good or bad. I'm especially concerned with how our young pitchers will be handled, in the wake of Bob Melvin's abuse, but I'm confident that things aren't going to get worse.
My personal preference is for Hargrove, as he's recently spent some time in a good organization, and also has experience with teams similar to the late Mariners. Still, hiring Little wouldn't be a tremendous disappointment.
It would appear that my Joe Maddon speculation was wrong (and that he was never a serious candidate to begin with).
Mike Hargrove and Grady Little look like the two finalists for the job. More on this later.
Mike Hargrove and Grady Little look like the two finalists for the job. More on this later.
There has been next to no new Mariner news over the past week, but thankfully, this might have been one of the best sports weekends in a long while.
David Ortiz is a monster. Period. Cut and dry. (Insert cliche here). After blasting a two run homer run earlier this morning to give the Red Sox a win, he knocks in the winning run again tonight, sending the series back to NY. Tomorrow night features Schilling vs. Lieber. Varitek's legs vs. Posada's legs. Manny's defense vs. Sheffield's defense.
Carlos Beltran isn't playing baseball. Carlos Beltran is showcasing himself in front of millions ensuring that he signs a contract of at least $15 million per season before the year ends. Brandon Backe threw an 8 inning one hit shutout and Jeff Kent hit a three run HR in the ninth that gave the Astros a one game series lead. Clemens is expected to get the ball on three days rest on Wednesday.
As if the horrendous Mariner season wasn't enough, my Tampa Bay Bucs lost to the St. Louis Rams tonight, pushing their record to 1-5. You know things are bad when you have to turn to Brian Griese as your starting quarterback.
Quick Mariner note. If you believe everything you read, Grady Little and Terry Collins interviewed with the M's this past week with Don Baylor and Joe Maddon meeting with Bavasi over the weekend. Mike Hargrove and Art Howe remained possibilities for interviews early this week, with a strong possibility of a new manager in place before the World Series. The FO is keeping their lips sealed tightly on this issue, but there have been some indications that Grady Little will be the next Mariner manager.
And Happy Birthday Jeff.
David Ortiz is a monster. Period. Cut and dry. (Insert cliche here). After blasting a two run homer run earlier this morning to give the Red Sox a win, he knocks in the winning run again tonight, sending the series back to NY. Tomorrow night features Schilling vs. Lieber. Varitek's legs vs. Posada's legs. Manny's defense vs. Sheffield's defense.
Carlos Beltran isn't playing baseball. Carlos Beltran is showcasing himself in front of millions ensuring that he signs a contract of at least $15 million per season before the year ends. Brandon Backe threw an 8 inning one hit shutout and Jeff Kent hit a three run HR in the ninth that gave the Astros a one game series lead. Clemens is expected to get the ball on three days rest on Wednesday.
As if the horrendous Mariner season wasn't enough, my Tampa Bay Bucs lost to the St. Louis Rams tonight, pushing their record to 1-5. You know things are bad when you have to turn to Brian Griese as your starting quarterback.
Quick Mariner note. If you believe everything you read, Grady Little and Terry Collins interviewed with the M's this past week with Don Baylor and Joe Maddon meeting with Bavasi over the weekend. Mike Hargrove and Art Howe remained possibilities for interviews early this week, with a strong possibility of a new manager in place before the World Series. The FO is keeping their lips sealed tightly on this issue, but there have been some indications that Grady Little will be the next Mariner manager.
And Happy Birthday Jeff.
Monday, October 18, 2004
Trent and I agree: give Carlos Beltran whatever he wants (and that David Ortiz fellow isn't too bad, himself).
I'm wiped out from an active weekend and celebrating my birthday today with a pair of tremendous baseball games - three, if you count the ALCS game that didn't end until 1:30 in the morning.
Schilling and Lieber are going to throw about 300 pitches tomorrow, between the two of 'em.
I'm wiped out from an active weekend and celebrating my birthday today with a pair of tremendous baseball games - three, if you count the ALCS game that didn't end until 1:30 in the morning.
Schilling and Lieber are going to throw about 300 pitches tomorrow, between the two of 'em.
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